Drewski Blog Post: Sun Dec 7, 2008 5:52 PM CST

Drewski Olds, Alberta Canada
Posted:Sun Dec 7, 2008 5:52 PM CST

Can India and Pakistan Walk Away From The Brink?

Mumbai is the second time that Lashkar-e-Toiba has put the two countries on a war footing. In 2002 each mobilized one million men for nearly a year after Lashkar attacked the Indian parliament. The recent Mumbai attacks have led to rising public anger in India against Pakistan and some have even called on Asif Ali Zardari to go to war.

With goals of creating a fundamentalist Islamic Caliphate in the region, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Al Qaeda have found themselves with common beliefs and, enemies. With Pakistani forces besieging Taliban, Al Qaeda and other militant groups on the border with Afghanistan as well as US and NATO forces, the news that Obama is planning on sending over twenty thousand more troops cannot come as welcome news. Hence, this is a strategic ploy to provoke the two old enemies - India and Pakistan - with a terrorist attack that pulls attention away from the tribal areas.

There are three strategies involved here;

1. To precipitate a build up of Indian forces which would force Pakistan to pull troops from tribal areas and the Western border with Afghanistan to the Indian border;

2. Provide a more complicated problem for US and NATO forces to deal with other than finding and targeting Taliban, Al Qaeda and other Islamist Radical Jihadists; and

3. Possibly, with well timed yet steady terrorist attacks actually push the two into war itself. A war which would only have one winner - those who are not in power at this moment and thus, have everything to gain and little to lose. If the two countries build up forces in anticipation of possible hostilities, they will be acting out the script laid out for them by Al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Toiba and, setting the stage for the next act(s).

Many believe that the Pakistan government, army or its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were behind the attack however, with Islamists threatening to throw Pakistan into revolution, it can hardly afford a rise in tensions with India when it is rife with problems such as a huge economic crisis, insurgencies in Balochistan/North West Frontier Province, rising violence in Karachi and one-third of the country out of control of any constitutional authority.

Certainly Pakistan needs to take uncomfortable actions by taking a more aggressive stance against these groups and, stop being reluctant to deal with the insurgency in the tribal areas. Another action that needs to be maintained and, cultivated is the peace process with India. Every effort should be made to have transparency and scaling down of forces in order to maintain the shaky trust that has been built up. Pakistan's other problems could well overwhelm the government - a troop mobilization is the last thing it needs.

Here, US Secretary of State Condelizza rice is key for both these parties and, it is not lost that she has gone to the region to further broker this process and, not let the two regress into the script written by the Islamist Radical groups who seek to orchestrate this misadventure. Possibly, if there is cooperation on both sides, they may even agree to find solutions for perplexing problems such as Kashmir in the process.

India in turn has it’s own problems in that public sentiment towards the weak government cries out for revenge, not further trust with Pakistan, the country where these acts originated and, to invoke stronger anti terrorism measures.

It seems clear that if both countries are to not only survive this crisis and actually move ahead with some positive results, they may actually have to defy the mood and opinion of their people of their respective countries to do so. In any case, to even maintain the shaky peace involved, they will have some hard times ahead of them simply to keep their governments heads above the public sentiment.

154 Views | 6 Comments



Comments

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bollywood Mumbai India
Sun Dec 7, 2008 8:38 PM CST
A war with Pak is not a solution for this . A war with Pak can topple the democratic goverment in that country and Pak will go in to the hands of Jihadis and the nuclear weapons and hitech missiles they procured from North Korea and china will fall in the hands of Al Quida. A war also means they will have lesser forces to fight in alreardy uncontrollable NWFP area. topple the Afgan govement again. But India has the limit for its patience too .She cannot keep on sacrfiying her on citizens for the sake of peace in the region . I only with the world community and the US in specific put on pressure on Pak to dismantle the terror camps in thier country and hand over the terrorists involved in this blasts to India to east the situation
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Drewski Olds, Alberta Canada
Sun Dec 7, 2008 9:23 PM CST
Your assessment is bang on! I do recognize that there is limits to realistic patience and, that goes the way of the US as well. Mushariff had his chance in 2002 after the attacks then when the US, India and Pakistan went this route before. He lost momentum quickly even after being provided billions to take care of the problem. This time, the government of Pakistan has to know that the US understands your point and has severe limits to it's ability to placate India and stop them from taking action.

I feel that you will begin to see some concrete action from Pakistan however, you will also see some stepped up attacks from Jihadis as well. I think that in light of those probable attacks, Pakistan had better be taking publicized actions to show they are doing their part otherwise, any agreements of non aggression will justifiably be null and void.
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bollywood Mumbai India
Sun Dec 7, 2008 10:06 PM CST
I have no hate for Pakistanis .They were Indians too half an century ago. but like Hitler mesmerised the Germany and used the Aryan theory to motivate a nation to commit a holocast The political elements in those region has distorted the Islam to meet their end and inducted them to the doctorine of intolerence and Jihad. I believe that pain and suffering has has no borders .when somebody dies anywhere in the world , or a war in any place a mother,a sister, a father ,a son , a wife, a husband , a daughter will lose something which cannot be replaced by any power in this world . I only wish those who are responisible for this brutal attack on humanity to be brought in to the books for the larger interest of humanity and Pakistan has a moral responibility to do that.They must stop pursuing the politics of terror which is not doing any good to their nation apart from a very few rouge elements in their country.
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Drewski Olds, Alberta Canada
Mon Dec 8, 2008 3:58 AM CST
Bollywood
"The political elements in those region has distorted the Islam to meet their end and inducted them to the doctorine of intolerence and Jihad."

Very true however, there is a democratic element which burns there that must be supported. The alternative is unthinkable.

Bollywood
"They must stop pursuing the politics of terror which is not doing any good to their nation apart from a very few rouge elements in their country."

That rogue element has wide support according to Jeffrey Imm of Counter Terrrorism;

""Most of the news stories based on the recent World Public Opinion poll of Pakistanis have been focused on the limited support within Pakistan in pursuing Al Qaeda or in fighting "insurgents", and these are legitimate tactical war concerns: (a) only 44 percent favor the Pakistani Army pursuing Al Qaeda, (b) only 48 percent would support the Pakistan Army acting against "Taliban insurgents who have crossed over from Afghanistan", and (c) nearly 80 percent are against US pursuing Al Qaeda or Taliban in Pakistan. But the underlying problem in U.S. relationships with Pakistan are demonstrated by the polls indication of significant Pakistani support for Islamism.""

In light of this, which I consider simply verifies what I already believe, the government is growing weaker and, is terrified of confronting Islamists in a crackdown. A crackdown would percipitate a possible revolution given the wide support the islamists have and this is what India will justifiably demand or, already has.

Saudi Arabia, at the time of the Iraq invasion had a fifty percent active and passive support rate with Pakistan slightly below that and, had the same problem as Pakistan has - 'dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.' The positioning of US forces in Iraq, away from Saudi control and ability for Islamists to use as a 'Holy Land' infraction yet, still able to carry out the Bush Doctrine of attacking targets when detected (whether real or imagined) within Saudi Arabia struck the right chord of fear with the Royal Family and forced action against those Jihadist elements. This opportunity now, I believe, is a last ditch 'do or die' task for Pakistan to do the same.

So Bollywood, when you speak of 'They must' you have to realize 'they' are those living in a country who have thugs living amongst them and, are in fear of confronting those thugs. They are also afraid of confronting India. What is paramount is that the proper mix be applied here to ferment action that is positive to Pakistan taking care of it's internal problems rather than attacking the Pakistani government who are reluctant allies with India.
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bollywood Mumbai India
Mon Dec 8, 2008 4:27 AM CST
Hi

Its a paradox that the world's largest democratic country is in a danger zone and worlds other biggest democratic country (The US ) have been supporting a terror and army mix regime that was formenting jihad. India is indeed in the most dangerouns zone in the world .We have a terrorist neibhour on west and a communist and autocratic China on north .both are nuclear armed to teeth and Bangladesh another pakistan in making on east and Srilanka the home of worlds largest militia on south. US is conveniently playing down this situation . I guess than an war an ecomomic sanction on Pak will do good . I dont understand why the world was after Iraq on the assumtion of having WMD and cant raise a finger against Pakistan though we have confrimed intelligence that they are formenting terror the world over. May be we dont have Oil in Pak ?
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Drewski Olds, Alberta Canada
Mon Dec 8, 2008 4:47 AM CST
Bollywood
"Its a paradox that the world's largest democratic country is in a danger zone and worlds other biggest democratic country (The US ) have been supporting a terror and army mix regime that was formenting jihad."

The cold war speaks volumes. Your weapons are Russian.

Bollywood
"India is indeed in the most dangerouns zone in the world .We have a terrorist neibhour on west and a communist and autocratic China on north .both are nuclear armed to teeth and Bangladesh another pakistan in making on east and Srilanka the home of worlds largest militia on south. US is conveniently playing down this situation ."

And if you topple the democratic government of Pakistan then you will have an active Jihadist enemy to the west rather than an near ineffectual terrorist appeaser.

Bollywood
" I guess than an war an ecomomic sanction on Pak will do good ."

No. You have one friend in the area and that is the Pakistani government. The only entity you can work with to the west.

Bollywood
"I dont understand why the world was after Iraq on the assumtion of having WMD and cant raise a finger against Pakistan though we have confrimed intelligence that they are formenting terror the world over. May be we dont have Oil in Pak ?"

Considering there are more Russian, Chinese and Indian oil companies operating in Iraq than US that has little basis for merit however, the WMD portion is also flacid in that if Iraq was a danger there wouldn't have been any talk - just action. WMDs were the domestic issue to gain congressional approval for action but Iraq itself was in violation of every ceasefire agreement and, in the unique geographical position to apply pressure to Saudi Arabia to take on their Jihadist elements just like the Parliament and Mumbai attacks provide the pressure to gain Pakistani action provided of course that India stays within the script that the US is trying to write for them.

By the way, you say there is confirmed intelligence that the government of Pakistan is fermenting terror? Please provide it unless of course, it is the elements of the ISI which we all know are in the bag with their Taliban pals.

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