Bad News for Democrats? Best Alternative After Biden Appears To Be Warren or Sanders
For political junkies looking for entertainment, here’s the disappointing truth: Joe Biden is at his best when he’s being boring.If his speeches are the political equivalent of a Lunesta, that’s a good thing, at least for him. If he’s able to pass off his policies as some sort of recycled, Obama-era mush with a bit of liberal spice added to the mix, so much the better.
He’s Warren G. Harding 2.0, promising a return to normalcy after President Donald Trump.
Of course, he’s also like Harding in another way. In a time when social media consisted of the letters to the editor section in the newspaper, our 29th president committed what might have been the ultimate political gaffe when he wrote, according to The New York Times that, “I am not fit for this office and should never have been here.”
He was right, of course, but it wasn’t something the media was interested in reporting at the time. Just imagine if telegraph lines had been able to support some rudimentary form of Twitter.
And therein lies the reason political junkies looking for entertainment needn’t be disappointed: Joe Biden isn’t going to be boring.
For Democrats, however, that could be very bad news, particularly when it comes to who their alternatives are.
As of right now, Biden still leads by 11.8 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which is generally a reliable indicator of how a candidate is doing. The problem is that the average is derived from polls that are all over the place, between one survey showing the former vice president up by 18 points and another that showed him down by 1 to both Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
What ought to be worrying is that all of these polls were taken during the last two weeks and that the trend, such as one can be reliably established, shows Biden’s lead shrinking.
The last two polls, surveys from the Economist/YouGov and Emerson, show him up by only 4 and 7 points, respectively.
This was before his latest gaffe, in which it turns out a story of military heroism he’s told on numerous occasions was, at best, several different stories amalgamated into one. He promptly issued a response which could be boiled down to “sorry not sorry.”
This gaffe felt dire enough to be of Kinnockian proportions — as opposed to, say, the merely offensive malapropism “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids” — and still managed to make its way into a news cycle that includes a hurricane.
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Comments (22)
According to
Warren is given a 33% chance of getting the 'Crat nomination & trending up.
Biden - 24% & trending down.
Sanders - 13% & trending down.
Harris - 11% & trending down.
The next 16 contenders (including "Other") come in @ 5% and less.
These numbers are very fluid - a snapshot of chances as of this hour.
Warren seems to be most favored among 'Crats & Lefties I know IRL, but enthusiasm is lukewarm.
The 'Crat base appears under energized - some grudgingly(!) admit The Don has a good chance of getting a 2nd term.
All 'Crat contenders would have difficulties in the general election against The Don.
That's my opinion - not immutable Natural Law.
What I know FOR SURE -
We'll know alot more in 14 months & two weeks.
...
Yes. REALLY!!!
"We'll know alot more in 14 months & two weeks."
Where have you been...missing here for some time...lol...who knows if the majority of Americans will vote...that is the problem...
Nope...
Either way, I do like Pelosi's game plan however. Because Trump deserves jail even more.
I mentioned that the 'Crat base appears under energized & some Lefties I know IRL grudgingly(!) admit The Don has a good chance of getting a 2nd term.
Given the possible contenders who may square off against The Don, the base may have cause to be under energized - any of them would have difficulties in the general election against The Don.
My opinion - not immutable Natural Law.
1) Warren has, over the years, been all over the spectrum, from registered 'Publican to trying to out-Bernie The Bern - and much in between including that $5 Indian thing.
2) Biden has made a career of gaffing himself - and continues to do so
3) Sanders may be the most effective campaigner, but may appear too far Left for middle of the road voters in a general election. His age is a legitimate issue - Lefties I know IRL DEFINITELY acknowledge that!
Will any of the contenders overcome their respective difficulties & prevail over The Don
I predicted we'll know alot more in 14 months & two weeks.
I continue to believe that will be the case.
they're aleady beaten if they all think like that . The 5 $ indian problem will be a billion dollar issue if she wins selection .
The advertising industry need somebody in the DNC to stand .
Wow ! That's really a bold prediction.
Agree totally...Trump is not well respected in New York...they know him well...
This is where he lives.
That is where the mafia live too...lol...
WHICH Warren, Lou?
Therein lies her difficulty - over the years she's waffled more'n IHOP.
I'll concede - Lefties I know IRL may be marginally more comfortable with her than gaffing Ol'Joe.
Some REALLY like The Bern - but think his time has past.
It's really not so much that they LIKE her as much as it's a process of elimination.
The least worst of the three main contenders, one might say - but they harbor reservations about her chances in the general election.
Hence their grudging(!) admission that The Don may have a good chance at getting a 2nd term
Me?
Of the field of 'Crat hopefuls, I like Tulsi - Especially on finally(!) ending Dubya Bush era wars.
But realistically - she ain't gonna get the nomination
She did make the wars an issue - and good on her for that, sez I
Keep an eye on her in '24
There be the rub & the gist of this blog, Lou.
I don't see the likes of a Barry O or BJ Clinton in the offing.
'Course, those were two of the best natural born campaign political animals of the past few decades.
Their like doesn't just come along every election cycle.
History doesn't reveal its alternatives.
But it's interesting to speculate what may've been (for better or otherwise) had the DNC not kneecapped The Bern in the '16 'Crat primaries.
That alienated the Bernie Bros & Hildy went on to alienate the 'Crat blue collar base with her "Deplorables" gaffe
'Crats are going into '20 still in damage control from those epic shoot-self-in-foot blunders.
IMO