Rushing to end isolation ?
Yesterday from Bloomberg;In response to:
Those who doubt the efficacy of shutdowns and mandated social distancing in slowing the spread of Covid-19 may want to look at the grim lesson learned by Sweden. Or more specifically, by its elderly, a large number of whom critics say died needlessly thanks in part to the government’s approach to the pandemic. Gyms, schools, restaurants and shops have stayed open throughout the country, which has been good for the economy but bad for longevity: Sweden’s death rate is about 32 per 100,000, compared with 24 in the U.S., the global epicenter, and roughly 9 in Denmark, which took a much stricter approach.
Dr. Anthony Fauci repeatedly contradicted his boss, President Donald Trump, in warning against many more unnecessary deaths on top of the 81,000 Americans already lost to the pandemic (though he conceded the true number is likely higher). While Trump has said more American dead is a price he is willing to pay for “ reopening” the economy, his adviser was decidedly less fatalistic in virtual testimony before the Senate Tuesday. Fauci cautioned against loosening restrictions in states where infection rates are still high, especially in a nation that remains woefully unprepared for the necessary testing and tracing. He also dressed down Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky when the Republican insisted kids return to school in the fall. Fauci pointed to a new, deadly syndrome affecting children that may be tied to Covid-19.
Those who doubt the efficacy of shutdowns and mandated social distancing in slowing the spread of Covid-19 may want to look at the grim lesson learned by Sweden. Or more specifically, by its elderly, a large number of whom critics say died needlessly thanks in part to the government’s approach to the pandemic. Gyms, schools, restaurants and shops have stayed open throughout the country, which has been good for the economy but bad for longevity: Sweden’s death rate is about 32 per 100,000, compared with 24 in the U.S., the global epicenter, and roughly 9 in Denmark, which took a much stricter approach.
Dr. Anthony Fauci repeatedly contradicted his boss, President Donald Trump, in warning against many more unnecessary deaths on top of the 81,000 Americans already lost to the pandemic (though he conceded the true number is likely higher). While Trump has said more American dead is a price he is willing to pay for “ reopening” the economy, his adviser was decidedly less fatalistic in virtual testimony before the Senate Tuesday. Fauci cautioned against loosening restrictions in states where infection rates are still high, especially in a nation that remains woefully unprepared for the necessary testing and tracing. He also dressed down Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky when the Republican insisted kids return to school in the fall. Fauci pointed to a new, deadly syndrome affecting children that may be tied to Covid-19.
Comments (40)
Perhaps the small small changes to our restrictions are predicted to keep us at a plateau phase, rather than attempting to eradicate the disease.
Keeping R>1 maybe satisfying ourselves with 2-3,000 deaths every week to balance the detrimental effects to the economy.
I certainly can't see how the daily number of infections and deaths are going to decline if we start to resume normal life.
You are lucky that Wales has kept the lockdown.
I totally agree that is too soon, especially now that the Police will have no authority to instigate social distancing in England
Over 181,000 dead from Covid-19 in 5 months.
So, if what you said is true Covid-19 has been about 360 times more dangerous than driving a car
and that's with social distancing. It will certainly go up if the social distancing is relaxed and in many regions it's just getting started.
I think I've had it, hopefully I've got anti-bodies and no residual infection and I'd be quite happy to get back to work and do something useful, even if that was traipsing round the village with a trolley full of groceries supplying those who are safer staying in doors.
For other people, it is too soon and it concerns me that vulnerable people might be pushed back into work against their will because they can't prove they are at risk. Some people pick up infection and succumb harder with no diagnosis of underlying medical issues.
I know I'm as tough as old boots, some people know that they aren't, but don't know why. A case in point is a work colleague who was seeing numerous consultants who couldn't work out why she was getting mildly unwell all the time until she went into cardiac arrest - my age, fit as a butchers dog, but had a virus which attacked her heart. Thankfully, she survived, but she knew something was wrong long before the doctors.
I haven't heard that the police will have no authority to enforce social distancing. In Boris Johnson's address on Sunday 10th May he said that fines will be increase for those who flout the restrictions.
I just took a peek at your profile GS and had to laugh - Occupation: unemployable.
I feel for parents that will have the dilemma of whether to allow a 4 year old to return to School in July. Controlling children of that age and keeping them separate will take some doing. It's a natural instinct for kids to mix and mingle.
As I'm unemployable I feel safe to a degree.
It seems 2 meter distancing is a legal requirement where possible, but because shopping, commuting and other activities may interfere with the practicalities of that, plus we are all judging by eye it makes it difficult to enforce.
As a result the increased fines will only be targeted towards people who are deliberately flouting the imprecise law for non-essential activities, like parties, protests and football games with non-household members.
I think it calls for the police force and the public to act reasonably and responsibly. I don't really see that as a bad thing.
With responsibility comes a level of autonomy. My daughter took my grandchildren out of school a week before they closed, not because she was worried about them getting ill so much as she was worried about spreading the infection to others. My daughter is an essential worker keeping the supply of groceries going (and she brightens everyone's day), so she was worried about passing on infection to the school.
I do think people should have the right to make personal judgement calls if they think they might be at risk, or a risk to others.
I think that should apply to other situations, for example, if someone avoids a crowded commute and is late for work as a result, I don't think they should be penalised. I realise there are inherent problems with not everyone being responsible in their behaviour, but there has to be a bit of a buffer in all directions as we struggle with a new normal.
Gov Tony Evers is devastated that the Republicans in the courts are playing politics..Everything back to normal except for schools..No masks no distancing no nothing..He knows hundreds maybe thousands will be infected or die..All that good work down the gurgler
I was talking about those who drive drunk & kill people and those who infect others
with Covid-19 and thus kill them, because they feel their mobility is more important than other's lives.
Unless Biden did either of those things, you are way off topic.
DAYUM!! She's RIGHT!!
Jim are you talking about people like Hunter Biden, who wont even stand up and pay for a baby they created, until forced by a judge! Who also have been in and out of drug rehab 6 times! Who was seen smoking crack in A Washington DC gentleman’s club as recently as 2018
The Supreme Court Justices aren't, technically, Republicans, as a seat on the Court is considered "non-political".
It's kinda a word game, though -- and the make-up of the Wisconsin Supreme Court is right leaning.
I suspect the Court majority reasoned Guv Evers overextended his authority by extending the Lockdown past its original deadline without getting some kind of corroboration from the Legislative Branch.
It's understandable the Guv Didn't go to the Legislature, on account of it being 'Publican controlled.
Mightn't that include Guv Evers for Failing to implement his Stay-At-Home Order in a Constitutional manner?
A pandemic doesn't suspend the Constitution & mandate Guvs become dictators.
Wisconsin politics are Utterly Insane & Always Have Been. Don't get me started
Do NOT get me started on insane Wisconsin politics
No. Do NOT
Yeah, at 45%
CNN Poll: Negative ratings for government handling of coronavirus persist
By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Updated 6:00 AM ET, Tue May 12, 2020
(CNN)Most Americans (54%) continue to say the US government is doing a poor job preventing the spread of Covid-19, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.
And, while a growing share of the public feels the worst of the outbreak is behind us (44%, up from 17% in April), a majority (52%) still sees the worst on the horizon.
Four-in-10 Americans say that they personally know someone who has been diagnosed with coronavirus, a figure that has nearly doubled in the last month. And most say the government is not doing enough to address the growing death toll (56%), the limited availability of testing (57%) or the potential for a second wave of cases later this year (58%).
The new poll finds President Donald Trump's overall approval rating holding about even at 45%. His rating now matches his high point in CNN polling dating back to the start of his term.
But at the same time, the President's numbers for handling the coronavirus outbreak have worsened (55% now disapprove, up from 48% in early March and 52% last month), and only 36% say they consider Trump a trusted source of information about the outbreak.
Partisanship sharply divides views on nearly everything related to the virus, which brought an abrupt end to in-person social interactions and stalled much of the nation's economy in March.
One of the sharpest partisan divides in the poll comes over where the US stands in the coronavirus outbreak. Republicans have made a 180-degree turn on this question since April. Last month, 70% of Republicans said the worst was yet to come, now, 71% say the worst is behind us. Among Democrats and independents, there have been more modest positive shifts, but majorities in each group still believe the worst is ahead (74% of Democrats, 51% of independents feel that way).
Roughly a third of Americans say they're afraid about the potential for deaths from coronavirus to reach 100,000 or higher in the US (35%), and the same share express fear about a potential second wave later this year. About a quarter say they are frightened by the limited availability of coronavirus testing (26%), and roughly 1 in 6 say the same about shortages of basic food items (17%) and cleaning products (18%).
These feelings, too, are divided by party. Most Democrats say they are afraid about the possibility of a second wave (58%) or the rising death toll (56%), while among Republicans just 14% and 15%, respectively, feel the same way.
And partisanship splits the public on how the government is responding to the crisis.
While 82% of Democrats say the federal government is generally doing a poor job, 80% of Republicans say it's doing a good one. There is nearly a 70-point chasm between Democrats and Republicans over whether the government is doing enough to address the potential for the death toll to rise to 100,000 or higher (81% of Republicans say the government is doing enough, just 13% of Democrats agree).
And there are differences of more than 60 points between partisans over whether the government is doing enough to address a potential second wave of cases (76% of Republicans say yes vs. 10% of Democrats) or the limited availability of coronavirus testing (77% of Republicans say yes vs. 12% of Democrats).
Some of the division in views of the virus may stem from a wide divergence in trusted sources of information about it. Republicans are more apt to say that they trust the information they get about coronavirus from Trump (84%) than they are to say they trust the information they get from Dr. Anthony Fauci (61%)
That’s a good point. Do you think Biden can get dressed by himself each morning or would it change your vote if he showed up with his pants on backwards.
Now matter how he chooses to wear his pants, he'd still be better than Trump.
I believed this rapid increase is due to lack of hygeine, and the distancing.
In my home country, in some cities they already lifted the isolation,as there were no more existing cases. Because the economy has to start moving, as we all knew, one of the consequences is the economy to suffer. The best we could do is self survival. We have to protect ourselves without relying to our respective government. Since they lifted the 24 hours curfew, i never went out aside from work. As we really need to perform work as frontliners, but we have that complete gears. But in public places, i am not so sure if i am safe there. So i'd rather stay at home. What's in my fridge and cupboard i see to it, it will be enough for the next month even for two months. Having my garden around me helps a lot. To be vegetarian has an advantage in crises like this. Bottom line, our safety purely depends on us..
a staunch Republican but he was very ashamed and embarrassed of Trump & Administration.
His "so-called" presidency has been a real tragedy and the worst in US history.
Not only should it not be repeated, but better controls need to be enacted, so that such a travesty cannot happen again.
The best we could do is self survival. We have to protect ourselves without relying to our respective government.
Burr has had his phone confiscated..Sold he's shares knowing about the virus.
It is hard for developed countries to grasp epidemics fully. We eliminated many diseases long ago, like polio and Small pox. No politician is prepared to deal with a pandemic. Even the medical people can't agree on anything to do with it.
I understand people without work needing to earn a living. But, I see more instigation from the business, corporate and stock market world to re-open. The screams are the economy the economy. From DC to states, the rich hate to see their profit margins decrease.
As a basic hermit, the lock down hasn't really changed my life much. So I and some I know are well aware of the risks of Wisconsin opening. We will continue to follow social distancing and the rest. What I do see though are too many people who wont. I expect to see cases zoom as these clueless fools belly up to the bar, crowd beaches and blithely carry on like before.
I think Evers went overboard. No matter what testing is done, there is no way to measure this virus. One can test one negative and two days later positive. And half the tests, like many medical tests are flawed.
My worry is bars and restaurants more than stores. They now show a sneeze goes through the simple masks on the market or home made. And contact tracing is a farce. All it takes is one cook with it to contaminate things. Oh, the food is cooked. Uh huh...like the sodas, salads, wrappers? And if that person is working at a checkout lane for 8 hours, days til sick..how do they trace every customer who walked thru, plus the ones they contaminated?
The other joke is increased sanitation. How many teens work fast food restaurants? So they are taught to double clean areas. And they do..for a few days. Then they will get lax...this is crazy. The lazy workers will soon slap dash and call it good. And the managers won't keep after workers. So the only way safe would be bring wipes and clean your own table and booth!
Mom taught me from childhood, people are walking germ bags. Use common sense. The worst is the attitudes of others that don't care. Oh, I wont get it. Or it isn't that bad. I am healthy so wont die.
Yeah..well here is a revolver..let's play Russian roulette. Oh, by the way, there is not 5 empty and 1 bullet..this one has 3 bullets. Good luck.
So they are taught to double clean areas. And they do..for a few days. Then they will get lax...this is crazy. The lazy workers will soon slap dash and call it good.
Agree with all you say as I see how the above is happening at our hospitals on a daily basis,
No politician is prepared to deal with a pandemic.
discussed viruses, including Corona viruses as potential sources.
Not only did he ignore the warnings & manual, he went so far to state, that "it was under control" and "would disappear before May". He also gave dangerous false drug & treatment recommendations.
As Dr. Bright recently testified before Congress, lives were lost because of the delayed response and inadequate preparation.
I said to myself this is what Republicans do..They get paid well to lie..
Some of it is behind closed doors and some of it is in the form of lobbying.
FACT Many, most, of the people who have died, up to now, have been over 65 and a significant percentage living in retirement settlements, or prisoners. The thing is - they have no direct effect on the workplace. Politicians and decision makers may often be over 65 but not so many workers are. Prisoners by definition aren't in the workplace.
One big lesson learned has been that sealed communities are deathtraps.
FACT Sweden and Japan have looked after their economy. By rights their infection rate should have been doubling by the day and it hasn't. If you really want to pick a comparison country, their mortality rate is substantially lower than Spain's, and Spain had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. Or Germany. Or France. Well done Sweden.
We simply cannot stay locked down to the end of time. Instead of talking about their grim lessons, talk about their socially responsible attitudes. They've done incredibly well and we'd do far, far better to hold their sensible compromises and community attitudes as our model going forward as we try to return to normality
By the way, the work force DOES influence their getting the virus.
Secondly, stick with one comparison, deaths rates, or infection rates.
You are comparing apples to watermelons.
The lockdowns affect the infection rate.
The medical care, age of patient and other health issues affect the survival rate.
By the way, the work force DOES influence their getting the virus.
Secondly, stick with one comparison, deaths rates, or infection rates.
You are comparing apples to watermelons.
The lockdowns affect the infection rate.
The medical care, age of patient and other health issues affect the survival rate.
1. Stick with one comparison? Where did I move from one comparison? the death rate in Spain with strict lockdown is significantly higher than the death rate in either Sweden or Japan.
And my comment directly addressed your topic, Rushing to end isolation.
2. Your blog chose a country which is managing to operate without lockdown. Instead of picking on the positives you chose, bizarrely, to focus on their mortality rate. More accurately, you chose to copy and paste an opinion. I commented that if lockdown was essential, their infection rate should be doubling, at LEAST, by the day.
I did this because your topic is fear of ending isolation.
3. I also pointed out that isolation / lockdown has not in fact dramatically ended either the infection rate or the mortality rate. I mention the watermelon of infection rate since oddly enough no-one yet has ever died of a disease without being infected by it.
Some stats for you. I have no idea how accurate they are. The figures on Johns Hopkins match for Japan and Sweden, are different for USA (1.5 vs 1.4 million) and wildly different for Spain. I chose Worldometer since they do breakdowns.
Japan - no lockdown - 128 cases per million, with 6 deaths per million, per worldometer.
Denmark - strict lockdown - 1875 cases per million, with 94 deaths
Sweden - no lockdown - 2941 cases per million, with 364 deaths
USA - erratic lockdown - 4559 cases per million, with 272 deaths
Spain - strict lockdown - 5940 cases per million, with 508 deaths
4. At last, my point. Isolation cannot last forever. Sweden and Japan have community-minded populations who are sensible, careful, managing their risk effectively, and continuing to support the bulk of their economy. Their processes are worth adopting and adapting as we move towards ending isolation.
I do have to wonder which few words you will cherrypick to object to
All I tried to say was it seemed odd to me to point at a country managing far, far better than your own (and mine
The article never stated that Sweden didn't care for it's citizens.
The article doesn't pick on Sweden. It just states the data for death rates.