The military situation in Ukraine, as seen by an ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence

Since November 2021, the Americans have been constantly threatening a Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the Ukrainians at first did not seem to agree. Why not?

We have to go back to March 24, 2021. On that day, Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree for the recapture of the Crimea, and began to deploy his forces to the south of the country.

In violation of the Minsk Agreements, Ukraine was conducting air operations in Donbass using drones, including at least one strike against a fuel depot in Donetsk in October 2021. The American press noted this, but not the Europeans, and no one condemned these violations.
In February 2022, events came to a head. On February 7, during his visit to Moscow, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed to Vladimir Putin his commitment to the Minsk Agreements, a commitment he would repeat after his meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky the next day.

But on February 11, in Berlin, after nine hours of work, the meeting of political advisors to the leaders of the “Normandy format” ended without any concrete result: the Ukrainians still refused to apply the Minsk Agreements, apparently under pressure from the United States.

Vladimir Putin noted that Macron had made empty promises and that the West was not ready to enforce the agreements, the same opposition to a settlement it had exhibited for eight years.

On 17 February, President Joe Biden announced that Russia would attack Ukraine in the next few days. How did he know this? It is a mystery.
But since the 16th, the artillery shelling of the population of Donbass had increased dramatically, as the daily reports of the OSCE observers show. Naturally, neither the media, nor the European Union, nor NATO, nor any Western government reacted or intervened.

It would be said later that this was Russian disinformation. In fact, it seems that the European Union and some countries have deliberately kept silent about the massacre of the Donbass population, knowing that this would provoke Russian intervention.
In fact, as early as February 16, Joe Biden knew that the Ukrainians had begun intense shelling of the civilian population of Donbass, forcing Vladimir Putin to make a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create an international problem or to stand by and watch the Russian-speaking people of Donbass being crushed.
In order to make the Russian intervention seem totally illegal in the eyes of the public, Western powers deliberately hid the fact that the war actually started on February 16. The Ukrainian army was preparing to attack the Donbass as early as 2021, as some Russian and European intelligence services were well aware.

If you claim to be non judge-mental please read the full report here:

Jacques Baud is a former member of the Swiss strategic intelligence and specialist in Eastern countries. He takes a fact-driven down-to-earth approach to analyze the conflict and the role the West plays in it.

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Comments (45)

I am by no means pro-Russian, never was and never will be. I do however consider myself to be non-judgemental
and that means that I don't see something as 'good' or 'bad' , 'right' or 'wrong'. Instead, I just observe it or experience it until true facts come to light.
God tells us to make righteous judgment. Everything you wrote is the truth and has been verified again and again. Jesus also said the truth will set you free.

Now MSM tells the Truth: Injection causing AIDS.... see my MOM blog

Something is going to happen this weekend,all sources have been told to stand down till next week. Truth Social goes live today...looks like the word TRUTH is the word of chive now....about time
I agree, how can we determine what's right or wrong if no judgment is done? It's the collective result of people who has the capacity to judge that counts.

Now I don't agree with Russia invading Ukraine just because there's an internal strife or conflict. If the OP is correct and the world would have cared for the brutal and unjust treatment of the Donbass people, then an international tribunal would have done the investigating and stopped the aggressions against that region.

It's not Russia's responsibility to make it worse and kill more people.
Sea, I couldn't wait for whatever comes next week.
We think Putin is bad, but wait till we see what may come after him. Russia is now a pariah, it is disgraced and is a military failure even if they win this war.
The next step may very well be a Military dictatorship.
What bothers the hell out of me is, the world just standing by?

Oh I know, Russia is actually enjoying setting up the direction of a big if not a global war just to try his Satan 2 missile.
Disagree. In Ukraine all are Russian speaking, minority know Ukrainian that is very similar to Russian.
“Ukrainians had begun intense shelling of the civilian population of Donbass, forcing Vladimir Putin to make a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create an international problem or to stand by and watch the Russian-speaking people of Donbass being crushed.” This is also nonsense. Russia is so “sensitive” and could not watch “Russian speaking people in Donbas being crushed” but firstly Russians started strikes not in Donbas but Kyiv and Kharkov??? Also Summy where Russian speaking about 100%.
"According to journalist Antoine Hasday, published by Conspiracy Watch , an interview with Jacques Baud given to RT France “checks all the boxes for geopolitical conspiracy” 18 . The latter, sometimes invited by the traditional media, also intervened on the far-right web-television TV Libertés , as well as previously on RT France 18 . Interviewed on this last channel by Frédéric Taddeï in September 2020, he in particular minimizes the human toll of the war in Darfur, which he reduces to 2,500 dead (against 300,000 according to the UN) and denies the responsibility of the Syrian army in the massacresin Homs in 2011 and in the chemical attacks in Ghouta , Khan Sheikhoun and Douma between 2013 and 2018 18 . Taking up the official arguments of the Syrian regime of Bashar el-Assad , he also asserts that the photographs taken by the military photographer " Caesar " are not those of political opponents who died under torture, but of soldiers of the Syrian army 18 . Jacques Baud also whitewashes Russia by considering that the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal was caused by a“food poisoning” and that the poisoning of Alexeï Navalny is probably “the fact of the mafia”

So not biased then, doh

Not someone I would choose to believe or post as a blog.
I think God meant 'righteous' in the sense of knowing or learning from his teachings experience, right from wrong. Not judging the criminal before he actually went to trial and proved his case. A righteous judgment on a subject would make one 'self righteous' and/or prejudice.
If the USA, EU and NATO were turning a blind eye to the blood bath in Donbass since 2014, what would and leader do other than put a stop to the source or the problem?
Is it the USA's responsibility to feed the war with endless weapons?
Do some research on the author of the document and you will see he is a man of integrity.
the only thing under my skin is the same political party in the u.s. screamming, russia, russia, russia, seem to be the very ones in power when russia makes a move of any sort. how's that for evidence of collusion? we have enough propagandists in the u.s. as it is. so far they hold majority power.

i don't follow much of ukraine and russia. i just hope a peaceful resolutions comes about sooner rather than later. so much being put out concerning ukraine-russia war, it's hard to follow.

which is true? which isn't. at least in the u.s., i can see and experience for myself. no desire to travel outside the continent, let alone to another warring area.
Proverbs 31:9

9 Open your mouth, judge righteously,
defend the rights of the poor and needy.
I respect your view but thats a typical view/stance the liberal will take when cornered with facts.
I personally know of the slaughter in the Donbass region since 2014 as of my acquaintances were invited to Ukraine in that period.
Its a well orchestrated war this. Proxy or not.

Id suggest you read the full report on the site.
I'm scared to even try and reply to you and your views.laugh
What I can say is for you to do some research on the author and you will find he is no 'mickey mouse' or a 'wannabe'.thumbs up
Oh yes and of course you will find much anti propaganda about him too from the left, which is understandable.
Totally agreed. I can divide the poor from the greedy that act poor after I have spent time with them and found out the truth.. Thats righteously judged imo.
I do not haggle on religion. My principle in life.handshake handshake
Apologies, this was your one.
Its a well orchestrated war this. Proxy or not.

Id suggest you read the full report on the site.

One of the Generalstab-Guys!
The place was virtually crawling with those Red-Pantstripe-Fellows!laugh
He must have some expertise with all the different Jobs he's held!
that is exactly my point. there are a lot of "full reports" available. many different directions. more than a few sources. there seem to be more than few reasons.

your title, more to the point: "as seen by an ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence." so far it seems russia is trying to take certain economical, as well as strategic, areas of ukraine. donbas has been spurred forward and equipped by russia for quite some time.

many reports all the way back to 2014. of course from opposing sides and views.

my concern is geared more towards an actual end to the chaos. i did follow a lot in the beginning. i can't say who, what, or why certain powers wanted this war for certain. i see some potential warnings and signals from inside my own country's governing body.

i don't choose ukraine or russia. i do consider what the citizens of both might be going through. much of that will be mixed as well.

i think ukraine has been more than russia initially bargained for. what is the actual plan? seems to me, russia is chipping away at ukraine's economic structure and trying to make them it's own.

i can't help but wonder the virtue, if any, for the excuses used. russia has been fighting it's own proxy war, since crimea's annexation at the least, via donbas. separatists. the group was pretty darn small in the beginning.
Me I listen to Max Blumenthal. There has been a problem in Dunbass over several years.
Was it extra pressing up until feb 24th 2022? I have no clue but that don't change much for me.

By listening to folk who used to be on the left, (or whose parents high up in the system did)
I feel there is more chance it's well founded.
What I read and heard about this talented man is that he is reliable and trustworthy with most of reports/papers done by him. Very knowledgeable much experience.
Not a good idea I would think. I've learnt a lesson about American authors, they have inbuilt bias. It's ok to check what's going on with them but to follow or accept as fact is not a good idea, especially far left or far right.

Independent international investigative journalists who are centre + or - a few degrees is best. These are the source of the news, they are not parrots like most media and most podcasts. Why would I want an intermediary filtering and slanting the news for me.

Also I check their bio and history, and above all I don't stick to one source.

That is my modus operandi, I'm not telling anyone how to think.
Well Merlot, then we have thinking not miles apart.
I throw in a pretty grande portion of gut feeling to boot.
He is a journalist and son of Sidney Blumenthal, Clinton advisor.
Fair enough, I suppose we all do what suits us best.
My career involved checking large amounts of documentation and my final submissions were always expected to be 100% so I'm used to verifying and double checking everything. Maybe I'm more relaxed about it now but the influence is still there.
If Putin cared for the people of the Donbass he would not have shelled it so savagely . He's been stoking a civil war for his own ends , he's done it all around Russia including political murders in the Baltic states . Funny how Baud misses that . Little bites by Putin slowly undermining governments to a point where he can install a government thats pro Moscow . Belarus , Chechnya example , then use their resources to further his aims . He's already stoking trouble in Moldova , even though Putins not on their border . He had his man in Ukraine , a butcher who did not stick and had to flee after stealing an election . He did not flee to Switzerland usual home for homeless leaders , he fled to Russia . This time Putin will pay if he wants Ukraine
I think you missed the point.
Russia is in the wrong. He's technically using this invasion to create a global conflict. Obviously the world players are aware of his agenda.

Putin knows exactly what's next. He's going to get what he wants because what does the world do? Nothing. That's right. The world can't do a damn thing UNLESS it's ready for the testing of SARMAT.

Question is, are we ready? Showdown for annihilation is what I think or leave Russia to do what it wants.
thumbs up

I think (we all think, hehe...)...
that either you:
2) sympathize with the freedom seeking independent western leaning Ukraine, even if their leader has a few imperfections to show for. If so you find Putin to be an irrational dictator with Hitler ambitions.
or you
2) sympathize with Russians here, and then you will easily see the Dunbass problem and the Nato problem, and not assume that in Dunbass we had a impertialistic Russia behind making life hard for the Ukrainians, and not just protecting their own.

How do you think abut that analyzes Merlot?
enlighten me in one sentence
So you think you know how I think, so what. I have no desire to analyse your thoughts. What is your objective? I said in my earlier reply to you that we do our own thing.
And why should I enlighten you, do your own research and analysis and then we can debate.
Do you mean I should adopt your point of view ? Funny enough I've followed Putin's victory's on his border for years . This time the nut did not crack as expected .
That was self defensive Merlot.
I was only wondering if you would agree. Simple as.

And there you have it my friends, who remember the old days around here...
If I asked a fellow cs'r if he/she agreed they would NEVER think I was setting them up (paranoia).
They would answer, and have a minimum of trust. That is now gone, as shown above.
That ........ is why folks have left cs blogs n forums.


Ok, I'm out of that attempt.
I felt proud to narrow it down in simple terms.
I felt it was accurate and asked "a friend" if he agree.
And the guy say "what do you want from me....?"

uh oh
Yes he is definitely not a fool this one and as the Swiss is known for its thoroughness in just about all aspects baud was used by them for obvious
Many people are misinformed and only see the Ukrainians as the underdog. That's not entirely true but I do have sympathy for them as they are only being used as puppets. The billions of dollars being collected worldwide for Ukraine wont find its way there in the long run. As for the weapons, what good will they be without the necessary trained soldiers that are supposed to use them.
It's in my opinion a sad state of affairs.
Sounds as though this 'Max' has your attention. Happy for you.thumbs up cheers
Can't argue with reason. Thanks for your comment.
Excellent advice. thumbs up 98
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Port Elizabeth 6000, Eastern Cape, South Africa

My idea of "help from above" is a sniper on the roof, and a higher power is a hell fire missile armed drone. [read more]

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