Scottish 'No' camp doesn't want Ulster unionists support (12)

One of the most illuminating voices on a Radio 5 Live documentary I presented and co-produced about Scottish sectarianism nearly two decades ago was a member of the UDA from Greenock Morton.

The shaven-headed, tattooed, denim jacket-wearing west of Scotland loyalist was brutally honest about the dedication of, in his words, the "45-minute, each-way, twice-a-month loyalists at Ibrox" to the unionist cause.

The UDA veteran was bemoaning the fact that, when he and his colleagues turned up to protest outside Govan Town Hall against the presence of Gerry Adams in 1995 – the Sinn Fein president being an invited guest speaker by none other than the now anti-independence George Galloway – only about 40 local loyalists joined them.

Even though 45,000-plus Rangers fans sing Derry's Walls and The Sash on alternate Saturdays, the Scottish UDA stalwart was disgusted that not even a thousand of the Ibrox faithful could be bothered turning up for a real political battle against one of their-then mortal enemies.

His cynicism put into context the true importance of Northern Ireland for Scottish politics, which was rather nominal compared to the great issues of devolution, de-industrialisation, North Sea oil and a Labour/Left-inclined country dominated by Tory southern England.

It is worth recalling the disillusioned UDA man's frank and realistic assessment of how far down people's agendas the Ulster issue was – and still is – when considering the role of Northern Ireland-based unionist parties and institutions could have in the upcoming Scottish independence referendum.

Because, in reality, the last thing the No/pro-Union campaign needs in Scotland is for unionist politicians, Orangemen and Union flag-waving loyalists crossing the Irish Sea to oppose Alex Salmond's plans for an independent Scotland.

Unlike the Ulster variety, Scottish unionism doesn't need, or indeed want, to fly the Union flag 365 days per year, or even on 18 designated days.

As the Union flag has come to be associated with Rangers supporters and the Ulster loyalist cause in Scotland's central belt, pro-Union forces, ranging from the much-weakened Scottish Tories to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and various pressure groups, won't be waving the red, white and blue during their campaign to save the Union. Instead, their arguments will be rational, rather than emotional.

The pro-Union/No camp say Scotland and Britain are "better together", because of the UK-wide universal health service, the welfare state, a common currency that isn't in the crisis-stricken eurozone, a united foreign policy and a sense of economic certainty compared to the unchartered waters of a smaller, separatist state.

Their 'unionism' has more to do with the Queen on the back of a £1 coin than whether or not a flag can fly atop a council building every single day of the year.

Talking to the pro-Union Better Together campaign, you get the distinct impression that the last thing they want is for the Orange Order to be marching en masse through the streets of Glasgow, or Edinburgh, this year, headed up by the likes of Peter Robinson, or Mike Nesbitt, in support of a No vote.

Scottish unionists do not wish to have the pro-Union cause associated with one particular religion, or ethnic grouping, albeit that Protestantism is still the dominant faith throughout Scotland.

Moreover, in the central belt, there is a substantial Catholic population of Irish extraction, who have been, until recently, traditionally supportive of Scotland's main pro-Union party, Scottish Labour.

Although in recent years the Scottish Nationalists have eaten into the pro-Labour Catholic vote in Scotland's urban heartland, the No camp are convinced this constituency will balk at backing an independence vote this autumn.

They do not want to alienate Scotland's Catholics by having their pro-Union argument coloured by red, white and blue and shouted out by cries of "No Surrender".

Although the plebiscite in September is probably going to be closer than the polls suggest, all the public surveys so far point to a No vote.

Therefore, if Alastair Darling and his campaigners do triumph, there will surely be lessons to be learnt for pro-Union politicians on this side of the Irish Sea. The arguments from the No side have been fought on the basis of economic reasoning and hard-nosed fiscal logic.

As someone who lives in the Republic, with its ailing, expensive, barely semi-public health service and an unemployment rate still double that of the UK, there are obvious fronts on which a pro-Union case can be made in Northern Ireland.

One based on economic self-interest, rather than emotional attachments to flags, symbols and parades.

In a society where the Catholic population is growing and its middle class expanding, smarter unionist politicians should be accentuating the benefits of Union – the free-at-point-of-use health service, for instance, rather than with triumphalist parading and an obsession with battles from the 17th century.

So, not only should Robinson, Nesbitt, the Orange Order and David Trimble (who surprisingly and to the fury of Scotland's No camp strayed into the Scottish debate in a speech there two years ago) stay out of Scotland's fight.

They should also watch and learn a few things from it.

A lot of Catholics in Scotland fear an Independent Scotland as many years ago the SNP did have a sectarian element, also many socially Conservative catholics in Scotland fear that a secular, SNP led government in an Independent Scotland would erode and ultimately remove the Catholic Church from Catholic schools in Scotland.

I have a cousin who lives in Scotland (from Northern Ireland) who is Catholic and will be voting against Independence because they regard the SNP as been hostile to Catholic education in Scotland, he normally votes for the Liberal Democrats in elections.

As for Northern Ireland a substantial minority of Catholics don't want a United Ireland at this moment in time given the state of the Public Finances in the Republic, including many members of my late mothers family.

If there was a referendum held on a United Ireland in NI in 3 years time it would be defeated around 70-30%.

As for Scotland I see opinion polls at the moment are generally strongly in favour of remaining as part of the UK.

I can see the NO side winning at least 60-40% with the Independence question settled until at least 2040.

I couldn't agree more Kenny. In fact this is the most I've ever agreed with you.

When you think about it, I think it's a good learning opportunity for the English Establishment (I say English as outside the Home Counties everyone are Alien to them, by degrees proportional to distance) to deal with minorities in the most expensive way possible. And I hope they continue to pay for it for a long long time to come, like an open wound.

If Tony Benn had ever become Labour Party leader and UK Prime Minister in the 70's or 80's he would have handed NI back to the Republic without a referendum.

Most English people wouldn't shed any tears if Scotland voted for Independence as well as a United Ireland. Westminster provides a block grant to NI. A quote from an article from 2012.

“The running cost of Northern Ireland is £20bn a year of which we contribute about £9bn in taxes. The British taxpayer is not going to continue giving us £11bn a year indefinitely.”

Thanks for the insight kennyfromdublin.

I don't know much about Scottish politics, I definitely didn't know that there was once a sectarian element to the SNP at one time.

I found the article very interesting however because of the way british identity needs to be assessed in scotland. Considering the lack of agreement wih the Haas talks regarding parading and the past in northern ireland, the way the scottish approach british identity for the referendum would be illuminating.

The debacle over the flying of the flag over belfast city hall and the 'civil rights' camp at twaaddle has brought all of the lunatics out of the closet. Mainsteam Unionism has been embarrassed to say the least at the conduct of half of the barstool patriots screaming no surrender.

British identity has been sadly hijacked by thugs in NI for the last year. I hope that the normal elements in Unionism will be able to pry it back from them.

As for a 32 county republic... i agree with everyone. We cant afford nor do we want it, at least not for the forseeable future