MAJOR CARIBBEAN STORM ( Archived) (56)

Although still being mostly ignored by mainstream mainland media in the US a major disaster potentially much worse than Hurricane Andrew's path through Texas is about to strike the US. I am referring to Hurricane Irma.
NOAA maps published today show most of the US (and UK) possessions in the Caribbean are about to be slammed by a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds over 170 MPH.

It has admittedly been a decade since my last visit, but no building I saw was designed to withstand winds like that.

Based on the maps below, I anticipate many casualties in places such as Saint Thomas, Coral Bay and the island of Culebra. On the Puerto Rico mainland both Carolina and San Juan are being forecast to receive not just the storm surge, but also the full force of the hurricane winds.

San Juan's Luis Muñoz Marín Airport (SJU) runways are normally only 1 foot above normal high tide. The storm surge of ocean water accompanying this storm may well exceed 14 feet. This will have profound implications for the delivery of any FEMA aid after the storm. Likewise, due to storm damage many of the ports on the island's North side will probably not be usable.

I do not anticipate any meaningful aid at all arriving in places like Saint Martins, Antigua, or Culebra for several weeks afterwards.

Although it has not yet fully developed a second storm Jose appears to be following a similar path only a few days behind Irma.

Irma promises to be the mother of all storms.

I know in my area people have been scurrying around trying to prepare for this storm. They have started evacuation procedures now. They have lifted road tolls in the state, sadly I don't think I am going to be able to evacuate By the time I am able to it would most likely not be safe for me to travel. So I am remaining calm. And doing what I can to prepare and hoping for the best. I actually in my sixty years being here never left for a hurricane. I think I kind of would like to for this one.

The storm is leveling Antigua now. It will pass over the US and UK Virgin islands in a few hours. All of the islands have low level airports which will vanish under water. The many, many high rise buildings that dot the various beach communities were never intended to withstand winds or storm surge of this magnitude. I have no idea if all or any of the islands have begun mandatory evacuation of the high rises, but the question becomes, and go where? And how? On PR alone with a population of 4.6 million, 80% live within 2 miles of the coast and many of those live in the San Juan and Carolina regions which will be amongst the hardest hit. The roads into the mountains are few and not wide enough to be a feasible evacuation route for 4 million people. Additionally there are no good places to go once we take probable flooding into account.

Irma is the strongest Hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. It may reach Florida by Saturday.

Another storm named Jose appears to be following only a day or two behind Irma.

I have friends on the islands and have been in contact with them offering what advice and comfort I can.