Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........ ( Archived) (46)

Oct 7, 2020 11:29 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
secretagent09
secretagent09secretagent09New Jersey Girl in, North Carolina USA198 Threads 4 Polls 7,223 Posts
More than six months after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, as scientific understanding of the novel coronavirus continues to evolve, one question remains decidedly unanswered. How will this pandemic come to an end?

Current scientific understanding is that only a vaccine will put an end to this pandemic, but how we get there remains to be seen. It seems safe to say, however, that some day, somehow, it will end. After all, other viral pandemics have. Take, for example, the flu pandemic of 1918-1919.

That pandemic was the deadliest in the 20th century; it infected about 500 million people and killed at least 50 million, including 675,000 in the United States. And, while scientific knowledge of viruses and vaccine development has advanced significantly since then, the uncertainty felt around the world today would have been familiar a century ago.

Even after that virus died out, it would be years before scientists better understood what happened, and some mystery still remains. Here’s what we do know: in order for a pandemic to end, the disease in question has to reach a point at which it is unable to successfully find enough hosts to catch it and then spread it.

In the case of the 1918 pandemic, the world at first believed that the spread had been stopped by the spring of 1919, but it spiked again in early 1920. As with other flu strains, this flu may have become more active in the winter months because people were spending more time indoors in closer proximity to one another, and because artificial heat and fires dry out skin, and the cracks in the skin in the nose and mouth provide “great entry points for the virus,” explains Howard Markel, physician and director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan.

Flu “does tend to go quiet when the cold weather regresses, but no one knows why,” Markel says.

But, by the middle of 1920, that deadly strain of flu had in fact faded enough that the pandemic was over in many places, even though there was no dramatic or memorable declaration that the end had come.

“The end of the pandemic occurred because the virus circulated around the globe, infecting enough people that the world population no longer had enough susceptible people in order for the strain to become a pandemic once again,” says medical historian J. Alexander Navarro, Markel’s colleague and the Assistant Director of Center for the History of Medicine. “When you get enough people who get immunity, the infection will slowly die out because it’s harder for the virus to find new susceptible hosts.”

Eventually, with “fewer susceptible people out and about and mingling,” Navarro says, there was nowhere for the virus to go —the “herd immunity” being talked about today. By the end of the pandemic, a whopping third of the world’s population had caught the virus. (At the moment, about half a percent of the global population is known to have been infected with the coronavirus.)

The end of the 1918 pandemic wasn’t, however, just the result of so many people catching it that immunity became widespread. Social distancing was also key. Public health advice on curbing the spread of the virus was eerily similar to that of today: citizens were encouraged to stay healthy through campaigns promoting mask-wearing, frequent hand-washing, quarantining and isolating of patients, and the closure of schools, public spaces and non-essential businesses—all steps designed to cut off routes for the virus’ spread.

In fact, a study that Markel and Navarro co-authored, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in 2007, found that U.S. cities that implemented more than one of these aforementioned control measures earlier and kept them in place longer had better, less deadly outcomes than cities that implemented fewer of these control measures and did not do so until later.

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Oct 7, 2020 11:29 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
secretagent09
secretagent09secretagent09New Jersey Girl in, North Carolina USA198 Threads 4 Polls 7,223 Posts
Public health officials took all of these measures despite not knowing for sure whether they were dealing with a virus or a bacterial infection; the research that proved influenza comes from a virus and not a bacterium didn’t come out until the 1930s. It wasn’t until 2005 that articles in Science and Nature capped off a nearly decade-long process of mapping the genome of the flu strain that caused the 1918 pandemic.

A century later, the world is facing another pandemic caused by a virus, though of a different sort. COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus, not influenza, so scientists are still learning how it behaves. While flu is more active in the winter—and, as Markel points out, the 1918 flu died out in a way “we would expect now” of seasonal flu—COVID-19 was active in the U.S. over the summer. Doctors expect the COVID-19 pandemic won’t really end until there’s both a vaccine and a certain level of exposure in the global population. “We’re not certain,” Markel says, “but we’re pretty darn sure.”

And yet, in the meantime, people can help the effort to limit the impact of the pandemic. A century ago, being proactive about public health saved lives—and it can do so again today.


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Oct 7, 2020 11:32 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
ElysianFields
ElysianFieldsElysianFieldsValletta, Gozo Malta35 Threads 3 Polls 197 Posts
Oct 7, 2020 11:34 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
Taralyn
TaralynTaralynFunk Island, Newfoundland Canada3 Threads 907 Posts
cheering

Wear your masks and social distance. It's really not that a big of an idea to understand.

professor
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Oct 7, 2020 11:39 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
secretagent09
secretagent09secretagent09New Jersey Girl in, North Carolina USA198 Threads 4 Polls 7,223 Posts
Taralyn: Wear your masks and social distance. It's really not that a big of an idea to understand.
wave Tara..........The point of the article is to explain what happens when people wear masks and respect social distancing. It also explains that when the virus can't find a host to live off of it will die a little more each day. It's not about preaching masks and keeping your distance. The article tells you WHY it's important to follow guidelines. We see that people don't want to be told to wear a mask. I'm hoping that if they understand why it's important to wear a mask they will be a part of the solution to killing off COVID-19.
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Oct 7, 2020 11:48 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
Oxycodone
OxycodoneOxycodonePula, Central Croatia Croatia1,285 Posts
Thank you SA, that was interesting to read and worthwhile wine
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Oct 7, 2020 11:51 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
tomcatty
tomcattytomcattyCoral Bay, Paphos, Paphos Cyprus368 Threads 6 Polls 6,885 Posts
Taralyn: Wear your masks and social distance. It's really not that a big of an idea to understand.
I have just booked my flu jab, for the sars virus, unfortunately not the covid 19, but the Spanish flu is still around and an give you a nasty illness.

My problem is my cleaner still "does" for me, and her child is in infant school, I would still be unlucky to catch C 19 as we take medical type precautions.

It seems incredible that an organism that can be destroyed by a soap bubble, could destroy me.
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Oct 7, 2020 11:52 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
galrads
galradsgalradsDublin, Ohio USA2,264 Threads 279 Polls 36,283 Posts
ElysianFields: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-876f42ae-5e44-41c0-ba2d-d6fd537aadfe
Interesting read too.....

Embedded image from another site
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Oct 7, 2020 11:59 AM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
Taralyn
TaralynTaralynFunk Island, Newfoundland Canada3 Threads 907 Posts
We're going into month 8 of this pandemic and all the experts have already stated, restated and stated yet again why it's important to wear the masks, social distance and no one gives a hoot or follows advice until the infection rates/numbers go off the chart again.
Do any of the nonbelievers of the pandemic realize how few people it takes to cause this to spread again and shut down the world ...... yet again?? frustrated
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Oct 7, 2020 12:50 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
Cranky_Geezer
Cranky_GeezerCranky_GeezerPatchogue, New York USA29 Threads 1 Polls 2,239 Posts
galrads: Interesting read too.....
I didn't read. I'm not interested in comparing death rates from times when literacy, hygiene, medical knowledge, and communication were vastly different than today. I'm sure it's really interesting, though. roll eyes
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Oct 7, 2020 12:57 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
GeneralBeacon
GeneralBeaconGeneralBeaconNew York, USA2,381 Posts
No one will tell you if masks save lives... it's a non-statistic. What the experts also don't tell you is how many patients were infected by COVID19 always having used masks and even died of other causes using masks.
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Oct 7, 2020 1:08 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
ElysianFields
ElysianFieldsElysianFieldsValletta, Gozo Malta35 Threads 3 Polls 197 Posts
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Oct 7, 2020 1:08 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
mikey4691
mikey4691mikey4691Knoxville, Tennessee USA8 Threads 6,868 Posts
It won't be over till the demonrats are back in the White House..
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Oct 7, 2020 1:16 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
Taralyn: Do any of the nonbelievers of the pandemic realize how few people it takes to cause this to spread again and shut down the world ...... yet again??
Only the N95 is protection for the individual. Neil Ferguson's prediction of 2 million dead in the US and 1 mil in UK didn't happen. 1.5 million died of TB in the world in 2019; covid-19 hasn't matched that yet.
I wonder how long it will take for the academics to shut down the world yet again with the enthusiastic abetment of the media.
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Oct 7, 2020 1:42 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
blathin
blathinblathinGlasgow, Central, Scotland UK3,125 Posts
secretagent09: More than six months after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, as scientific understanding of the novel coronavirus continues to evolve, one question remains decidedly unanswered. How will this pandemic come to an end?

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It's not complicated. In fact it's very simple. How it ends, if at all, is entirely up to each and everyone of us as individuals. We don't need Covid19 to survive and thrive, but it does need us. . So,if people just wear a mask and observe social distancing, wash their hands regularly etc..then Covid wont' have anywhere to go and will die out...very quickly..
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Oct 7, 2020 1:49 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
blathin
blathinblathinGlasgow, Central, Scotland UK3,125 Posts
TTKSpectre: Only the N95 is protection for the individual. Neil Ferguson's prediction of 2 million dead in the US and 1 mil in UK didn't happen. 1.5 million died of TB in the world in 2019; covid-19 hasn't matched that yet.
I wonder how long it will take for the academics to shut down the world yet again with the enthusiastic abetment of the media.
The academics aren't the ones filling up the shopping centres, restauarants and having parties in student accomodation etc....
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Oct 7, 2020 1:50 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
blathin
blathinblathinGlasgow, Central, Scotland UK3,125 Posts
mikey4691: It won't be over till the demonrats are back in the White House..
roll eyes roll eyes roll eyes
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Oct 7, 2020 1:59 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
mikey4691
mikey4691mikey4691Knoxville, Tennessee USA8 Threads 6,868 Posts
Did I hurt the trolls feelers??
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Oct 7, 2020 2:04 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
secretagent09
secretagent09secretagent09New Jersey Girl in, North Carolina USA198 Threads 4 Polls 7,223 Posts
blathin: It's not complicated. In fact it's very simple. How it ends, if at all, is entirely up to each and everyone of us as individuals. We don't need Covid19 to survive and thrive, but it does need us. . So,if people just wear a mask and observe social distancing, wash their hands regularly etc..then Covid wont' have anywhere to go and will die out...very quickly..
Exactly. applause for you blathin.

Each one of us can be the SOLUTION to ending Covid.

If you aren't the solution then you (the public) is the problem.

Covid needs a host to live on just like any other bug.

When that bug can't find a host it will die.

BE THE SOLUTION.......NOT THE PROBLEM


teddybear
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Oct 7, 2020 2:07 PM CST Ever Wonder How You Will Know The Pandemic Is Over ........
GeneralBeacon
GeneralBeaconGeneralBeaconNew York, USA2,381 Posts
N95s need to be reserved for use for all P1 essential health care workers and other frontline responders whose jobs put them at much greater risk of acquiring COVID-19. If you have the money and they are available legally go for it... still their life span in the real world is limited and without training how to use them they become useless ( especially if made in China ). Two-ply cloth washable masks are good enough if you also wash your hands often, keep your distance from others, and don't spend your whole day in a grocery store or mall. We have the frame type that can be washed along with throw-away 3-ply filters and yet are not available to the general public. Mix 1/4 cup of Aloe Vera with 3/4 cup of 90%+ rubbing alcohol and this is perfect as a hand sanitizer in a small plastic bottle for daily use or when needed.
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