Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........ ( Archived) (155)

Sep 19, 2008 4:16 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
Been giving this a little thought. Some here might say that
ttom500 gives little thought to just about everything.:-)

But here is my 2 cents on Leahman Brothers and AIG situation.

What if you are the gov't and you only have so much funds to do bailouts with? That with the war in Iraq, high BOPs, and your normal business in here in the US needing billions. You only have so much fast cash on hand to do bailouts?

Then in a short period of time you get hit with Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/Leahman Brothers and the AIG failures. You need billions and billions for either gov't loans or for bailouts. Also analysist are telling you that the US auto and airline firms are looking at similar situation for gov't loans or bailouts in the near future.

Sure you can sell off gold and silver to raise money right now. But the with the value of the precious metals....raising more daily....you will take a beating.

So now you look capitol accounts. Your IMF account. Your t-bills
etc,etc,etc....to see where you can either restructure or find the funds.
You still are short to helping them all.

So you cannot do them all.

Now you assess which one effects the situation worst and best.
AIG is one of the worlds biggest insurance carriers......it provides commercial trade insurance and major project insurance around the globe.

The Fannies and Leahman Bro are really mortage firms that provide funding to the housing market and some to the commercial markets.
Here the housing bubble burst has already had a effect. Not much you can do about that.

But saving those international contracts.....has major importance to
keeping a global financial crisis from occurring. Keep manufacturing businesses open and workers employed. So?

You let the Fannies and Leahman Bro fail knowing that in time the housing market in the US will restructure with local banking and credit unions. And you save AIG to keep the international markets from going into crisis.

Tough choices.......specially in a election year.

But to be honest.....I think that the GWB got it right. To let AIG fail.....would have meant international ripples ....make that waves for most of the countries in the world. AIG has the potential to trigger a global recession/depression. Where as the the Fannies and
Leahman Brother don't. And the stock markets here at least after taking the big nose dive.....are improving with gains.

Thoughts?
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Sep 19, 2008 4:43 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
I sure glad I don't have to make the call.uh oh
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Sep 19, 2008 5:13 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
druidess6308
druidess6308druidess6308Aliquippa, Pennsylvania USA79 Threads 13,695 Posts
I agree. He made the right call on that. AIG going down would have been a HUGE disaster...the others are small in comparison, and we'll recover from them.
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Sep 19, 2008 5:28 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
Conrad73: I sure glad I don't have to make the call.


Making the call here.....was like asking yourself what foot do you accidentally want to be shot in....left or right.

GWB did not warm himself into the hearts of Americans that are losing their homes at present.

Given the two choices....you mitigate the greater the one with the greater damages. Kind of like one is a flesh wound and the other is a thru and thru wound.

The stock market see it the sameway, I think. If those major international contracts lose thier insurance.....then your blue chips to your penny stock manufacturers are hurting from contract loses. That is why it is bouncing back.

When some of the blue chips....airlines and auto show with thier hat in thier hand......going to be another tough call to make. My bet is that some REP are hoping that they will not show on the hill till after November.
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Sep 19, 2008 6:22 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
This just got a lot bigger........

The Feds are talking and planning to have a massive buy out of all the bad paper mortages of Fannie....estimate......$100s of billions....maybe even one tri llion billion.

Plan is in Congress.....but look like the chock of the situation has support on both sides of the aisle. Sen Bunning is talking a filbuster to keep it from happening...saying that we just stepped into socialism in a big way.

Kids this just got to really deep and rough waters. Get out your life preservers.

They went from a several company bailout plan...to a complete economy redo.

The MMA (Money market accounts) have just got Federal Gov't insurance place on them. They did that right prior to the great depression in 1932. They placed gov't insurance on accounts to stabilize the banks. But the runs on the banks were to many, the consumers had lost confidence in them.

This is a confidence issue. The more confidence there in the country that it is institution are solid.....the less threat to a depression.

No numbers yet on the economy redo......but figure more zeros that you or me will see in a life time.
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Sep 19, 2008 6:33 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
mbcasey
mbcaseymbcaseyNorth Myrtle Beach, South Carolina USA68 Threads 7 Polls 16,449 Posts
ttom500: This just got a lot bigger........

The Feds are talking and planning to have a massive buy out of all the bad paper mortages of Fannie....estimate......$100s of billions....maybe even one tri llion billion.

Plan is in Congress.....but look like the chock of the situation has support on both sides of the aisle. Sen Bunning is talking a filbuster to keep it from happening...saying that we just stepped into socialism in a big way.

Kids this just got to really deep and rough waters. Get out your life preservers.

They went from a several company bailout plan...to a complete economy redo.

The MMA (Money market accounts) have just got Federal Gov't insurance place on them. They did that right prior to the great depression in 1932. They placed gov't insurance on accounts to stabilize the banks. But the runs on the banks were to many, the consumers had lost confidence in them.

This is a confidence issue. The more confidence there in the country that it is institution are solid.....the less threat to a depression.

No numbers yet on the economy redo......but figure more zeros that you or me will see in a life time.


It is a big hit, but I believe it can be sustained. With FIDC, there will be no bank runs. I agree with you about confidence. There are about 65% of the American people invested in the stock market. If they don't lose their heads and keep confident the market is a great long term investment, then I think the economy will be ok.

The American people will lose money in the long run with the treasury dipping into the economy like this, but hopefully the gov't will recoup much of the bailout by selling the assets they have taken over...such as the Fannie and Freddie foreclosures. In a way, this bailout of banking, mortgage and insurance industries could have a positive ripple effect for the people.
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Sep 19, 2008 7:38 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
mbcasey: It is a big hit, but I believe it can be sustained. With FIDC, there will be no bank runs. I agree with you about confidence. There are about 65% of the American people invested in the stock market. If they don't lose their heads and keep confident the market is a great long term investment, then I think the economy will be ok.

The American people will lose money in the long run with the treasury dipping into the economy like this, but hopefully the gov't will recoup much of the bailout by selling the assets they have taken over...such as the Fannie and Freddie foreclosures. In a way, this bailout of banking, mortgage and insurance industries could have a positive ripple effect for the people.


The secret on bad paper.....is to find the good ones and the marginal one......let them stand.....take the bad ones.....write them off.

I bet the Gov't Accounting Office (GAO) is doing some major over time hours at this point. They have got to sort these mortage loans out.
With our technologies that should be easier today than in the past.

If they can sort the bad paper out.......and the balance of the funds go into productive efforts...with solid pay backs......it is a win/win situation. We have needed a economic shake up.....this is going to be one.

When you use that credit card the next time......you got more authorizations on it than before. How this can effect consumer credit concerns me. If people go to wal mart.....buy thier groceries....put the card down....and are denied......not a good thing.

Also the Gov't realized on the mortages....they forced many lenders into making bad loans....when they shifted the red line rules on communities. Red lines were used by the mortage firms to circle out areas of a community that were bad risk loan areas. Feds got word they were being used......said that they were a unfair lending practice.

So now they were forced to lend into bad areas knowing default was likely. What is ironic on this......

The fastest way for the Feds to figure out thier good paper and bad paper.....mentioned earlier......is to use red line zones on the communities. Are we paying 500 billion dollar because someone should have been able to use a red magic marker on a map? LOL Only in America......
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Sep 19, 2008 8:02 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
dazzling_dave
dazzling_davedazzling_daveWaynesboro, Virginia USA4 Threads 1,993 Posts
Not much worry about bank runs in this day and age. Few people have any money in the bank to withdraw.
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Sep 19, 2008 8:14 PM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
dazzling_dave: Not much worry about bank runs in this day and age. Few people have any money in the bank to withdraw.


Good point Dave......but when that plastic does not get processed......watch out ......they will circle the banks in thier SUVs.....
bring the pitch forks and torches with them........and storm the palace gates with so many that the bank security will not keep them out.
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Sep 20, 2008 7:49 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
Lillym
LillymLillymSliema, Majjistral Malta33 Threads 3,391 Posts
ttom500: Been giving this a little thought. Some here might say that
ttom500 gives little thought to just about everything.:-)

But here is my 2 cents on Leahman Brothers and AIG situation.

What if you are the gov't and you only have so much funds to do bailouts with? That with the war in Iraq, high BOPs, and your normal business in here in the US needing billions. You only have so much fast cash on hand to do bailouts?

Then in a short period of time you get hit with Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/Leahman Brothers and the AIG failures. You need billions and billions for either gov't loans or for bailouts. Also analysist are telling you that the US auto and airline firms are looking at similar situation for gov't loans or bailouts in the near future.

Sure you can sell off gold and silver to raise money right now. But the with the value of the precious metals....raising more daily....you will take a beating.

So now you look capitol accounts. Your IMF account. Your t-bills
etc,etc,etc....to see where you can either restructure or find the funds.
You still are short to helping them all.

So you cannot do them all.

Now you assess which one effects the situation worst and best.
AIG is one of the worlds biggest insurance carriers......it provides commercial trade insurance and major project insurance around the globe.

The Fannies and Leahman Bro are really mortage firms that provide funding to the housing market and some to the commercial markets.
Here the housing bubble burst has already had a effect. Not much you can do about that.

But saving those international contracts.....has major importance to
keeping a global financial crisis from occurring. Keep manufacturing businesses open and workers employed. So?

You let the Fannies and Leahman Bro fail knowing that in time the housing market in the US will restructure with local banking and credit unions. And you save AIG to keep the international markets from going into crisis.

Tough choices.......specially in a election year.

But to be honest.....I think that the GWB got it right. To let AIG fail.....would have meant international ripples ....make that waves for most of the countries in the world. AIG has the potential to trigger a global recession/depression. Where as the the Fannies and
Leahman Brother don't. And the stock markets here at least after taking the big nose dive.....are improving with gains.

Thoughts?


I totally agree with you... the choice was AIG no doubt about it, besides it was well known that somebody else was going to bail out Lehman bros. thumbs up
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Sep 20, 2008 7:49 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
Lillym
LillymLillymSliema, Majjistral Malta33 Threads 3,391 Posts
ttom500: Been giving this a little thought. Some here might say that
ttom500 gives little thought to just about everything.:-)

But here is my 2 cents on Leahman Brothers and AIG situation.

What if you are the gov't and you only have so much funds to do bailouts with? That with the war in Iraq, high BOPs, and your normal business in here in the US needing billions. You only have so much fast cash on hand to do bailouts?

Then in a short period of time you get hit with Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/Leahman Brothers and the AIG failures. You need billions and billions for either gov't loans or for bailouts. Also analysist are telling you that the US auto and airline firms are looking at similar situation for gov't loans or bailouts in the near future.

Sure you can sell off gold and silver to raise money right now. But the with the value of the precious metals....raising more daily....you will take a beating.

So now you look capitol accounts. Your IMF account. Your t-bills
etc,etc,etc....to see where you can either restructure or find the funds.
You still are short to helping them all.

So you cannot do them all.

Now you assess which one effects the situation worst and best.
AIG is one of the worlds biggest insurance carriers......it provides commercial trade insurance and major project insurance around the globe.

The Fannies and Leahman Bro are really mortage firms that provide funding to the housing market and some to the commercial markets.
Here the housing bubble burst has already had a effect. Not much you can do about that.

But saving those international contracts.....has major importance to
keeping a global financial crisis from occurring. Keep manufacturing businesses open and workers employed. So?

You let the Fannies and Leahman Bro fail knowing that in time the housing market in the US will restructure with local banking and credit unions. And you save AIG to keep the international markets from going into crisis.

Tough choices.......specially in a election year.

But to be honest.....I think that the GWB got it right. To let AIG fail.....would have meant international ripples ....make that waves for most of the countries in the world. AIG has the potential to trigger a global recession/depression. Where as the the Fannies and
Leahman Brother don't. And the stock markets here at least after taking the big nose dive.....are improving with gains.

Thoughts?


I totally agree with you... the choice was AIG no doubt about it, besides it was well known that somebody else was going to bail out Lehman bros. thumbs up
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Sep 20, 2008 8:11 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
Godsgift
GodsgiftGodsgiftEnnis, Clare Ireland251 Threads 13 Polls 10,040 Posts
Lillym: I totally agree with you... the choice was AIG no doubt about it, besides it was well known that somebody else was going to bail out Lehman bros.


Talk about having your cake and eating it. Seems these greedy folks are all for private free enterprise when they're making money and all for the socialist ethic of nationalisation when they're losing it. If I was from the US, I think I'd be very pissed indeed!frustrated very mad
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Sep 20, 2008 9:35 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
Godsgift: Talk about having your cake and eating it. Seems these greedy folks are all for private free enterprise when they're making money and all for the socialist ethic of nationalisation when they're losing it. If I was from the US, I think I'd be very pissed indeed!



They could have offered AIG a gov't loan package. But now you have the same leadership group that got the company into the situation in the first place...still running the show.

With the gov't take over.....if it is under the laws that I think that is it.....it for a limited and determined duration. While the restructuring occurs. Once that is done.....like in a bankrupcy it re opens its doors under new managment. I am not 100% sure of that.

McCain has already said do a 9/11 like investigation on this. Obama said that was a bad idea. The only way to find out if someone and who that someone is that was dipping into the company till is....seems to me is to do a investigation.

But yes....the Ameican people have every right to be ticked off on this.
The question is who to direct the anger at? With out an investigation....how do you know?

We could do the old Chinese truth in commerce test, I guess. In the 1400s....if they had a conflict of two Chinese over a business deal....
they would boil oil.....stick both of their fingers into it.....the one that screamed first....was the crook. Wonder how the SEC Chairman likes that idea at present? Or the CEO of AIG? Maybe we better look at the fingers of the top management of the Fannies, Leahman Bro, AIG to see if any are blistered numbs.

Well maybe we should just stick with American jurispurdence on it. In his day, Hangin Judge Roy Beam had a solution. Steal a $100 dollar horse in his county.....was a hangin offense. What do you get for stealing billions? Today? Likely a chushie time in a minumum security prison with spousal rights, tennis courts, swimming pools and catered food service.
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Sep 20, 2008 9:38 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
Godsgift: Talk about having your cake and eating it. Seems these greedy folks are all for private free enterprise when they're making money and all for the socialist ethic of nationalisation when they're losing it. If I was from the US, I think I'd be very pissed indeed!


It does appear that way... I'm not big on the idea of government running private business....since they can't run government.
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Sep 20, 2008 9:58 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
I saw Pelosi yesterday with Republicans...that's not a good sign... frustrated
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Sep 20, 2008 10:15 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
agman
agmanagmanEagle, Idaho USA3,145 Posts
Well maybe a special tax for the top 5% income people should bail out
AIG since they are the responsible people. Mortgage crissis will
not resolve until the average american can afford to by homes. So
lower property taxes and decrease the inflated value of homes as
they are today. I have a home next to me for $660,000 that has not
sold in the last 6 years. Nobody, can afford it and its property tax.

angel
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Sep 20, 2008 10:16 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
jetdevil2001
jetdevil2001jetdevil2001Tashkent, Uzbekistan6 Threads 1 Polls 406 Posts
I am also not big fan of govermental interfering, but it's the only option to keep recescion away. Last year, when the mortgage crises burst out it also had big impact on neighbouring Kazakhstan, when the house prices fell down and building stoped, this led to loosing of thousands jobs places. We did also feel this failure of this incompetence in making business. The leading world economies are doin the same to save the stocks from total disasater
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Sep 20, 2008 10:17 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
agman: Well maybe a special tax for the top 5% income people should bail out
AIG since they are the responsible people. Mortgage crissis will
not resolve until the average american can afford to by homes. So
lower property taxes and decrease the inflated value of homes as
they are today. I have a home next to me for $660,000 that has not
sold in the last 6 years. Nobody, can afford it and its property tax.



I'd gamble they can't afford the property taxes. That's a local issue though...not Bush's problem.


It's not a $660,000 house if it's sat for 6 months. There's your deflation.
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Sep 20, 2008 10:25 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
jetdevil2001
jetdevil2001jetdevil2001Tashkent, Uzbekistan6 Threads 1 Polls 406 Posts
Indyfella: I'd gamble they can't afford the property taxes. That's a local issue though...not Bush's problem. It's not a $660,000 house if it's sat for 6 months. There's your deflation.

confused yep, can't catch, how it's possible to own such property
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Sep 20, 2008 10:28 AM CST Leahman Brothers Bankrupcty and AIG Bailout........
agman
agmanagmanEagle, Idaho USA3,145 Posts
Indyfella: I'd gamble they can't afford the property taxes. That's a local issue though...not Bush's problem. It's not a $660,000 house if it's sat for 6 months. There's your deflation.


Not Bush's problem directly, but I respectively disagree in the sense that those with wealth build these monster homes to reap in a
large profits. In the meantime the value land goes up and
poor farmers are taking it up the rear.
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