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I think the following could have a pretty decent chance of happening:
A tough budget (which there simply has to be) leads to the Government falling
FG and Labour lead a minority Government which stutters through disaster after disaster when people realise that Kenny and Gilmore are populist, rabble rousing muppets
FF with Lenihan as leader win the next election (or get enough seats to make a coalition, but you know what I mean by win!)