Does luck determine success? (an interesting read) ( Archived) (17)

Apr 4, 2008 3:40 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
For economists, the economic success of capitalism creates something of a puzzle. When combined with a relatively small government, capitalism is a well-established ticket to improved standards of living. Yet many countries resist. Why?

A flurry of research has shed new light on the question. The fascinating implication of the latest findings is that preexisting social attitudes toward luck may be the crucial determinant of the political path of a society.

The nearby chart is taken from a widely discussed paper by economists Alberto Alesina, Edward Glaeser, and Bruce Sacerdote. The investigators set out to discover why the U.S. does not have a large welfare state (at least compared with Europe) and uncovered a striking difference between Americans and Europeans. If you ask Americans whether the poor are lazy, 60 percent say yes. If you ask Europeans, only 26 percent say yes.

Consider now a striking pattern that is visible in the chart. The authors found that large welfare states emerge in countries where citizens generally believe that luck determines income. If bad behavior (or laziness) is viewed as a source of poverty, then the welfare state is small. America has avoided the fate of Europe because its citizens disproportionately believe that luck is not that important a determinant of one's circumstances, but hard work is.

This might come as a relief to conservative Americans, who are ever fearful that the Left will succeed in imposing its version of a European welfare state. If Americans are predisposed to believe that high incomes are generally merited, then they will be resistant to change, even if sold by a charismatic salesman like Barack Obama.

A related study by Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch has found that rampant corruption tends to precede big national swings to the left. This link is itself related to the picture that emerges from the chart. When capitalists succeed because of bribes and corruption, citizens become less convinced that the income distribution reflects merit, and more willing to redistribute.

Recent corporate scandals, and the shameful behavior of the Republican Congress, set the stage for a left-wing backlash that was fully consistent with the historical precedent. It takes more than luck to maintain a free society. If we are to avoid acquiring a welfare state the size of Europe's, we must be vigilant defenders of the rule of law and merciless punishers of the corrupt among us.

Courtesy of AEI

Go to: to see how various countries graph out. Of course where Denmark lands is interesting!

(This will fall into the CS basement fast.)
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Apr 4, 2008 3:43 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
bubbles69
bubbles69bubbles69Inverness, Highland, Scotland UK17 Threads 1 Polls 1,984 Posts
Condense that for me babe, ya know Im blonde.kiss
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Apr 4, 2008 4:03 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
bubbles69: Condense that for me babe, ya know Im blonde.



Are the rich lucky or are the poor unlucky?


Hey, that's as short as I could get it grin
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Apr 4, 2008 4:07 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
bubbles69
bubbles69bubbles69Inverness, Highland, Scotland UK17 Threads 1 Polls 1,984 Posts
Indyfella: Are the rich lucky or are the poor unlucky? Hey, that's as short as I could get it


Short enough..............

Answer.................... Yes, maybe, or maybe not.dunno
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Apr 4, 2008 4:08 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
bubbles69: Short enough..............

Answer.................... Yes, maybe, or maybe not.


I might agree.....I'm not sure confused
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Apr 4, 2008 4:12 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
bubbles69
bubbles69bubbles69Inverness, Highland, Scotland UK17 Threads 1 Polls 1,984 Posts
Indyfella: I might agree.....I'm not sure


I'll agree with whatever you think best.rolling on the floor laughing
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Apr 4, 2008 4:14 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
bubbles69: I'll agree with whatever you think best.


Well, I can't decide.... Maybe I should take a poll?

My god this is stressful!laugh
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Apr 4, 2008 4:31 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
lusciousmile
lusciousmilelusciousmileThere, Aland Islands Finland25 Threads 2 Polls 11,989 Posts
I think it's a combination, of both opportunity and hard work.


What could be better, than to have them both? grin


I think, i need to work a little bit harder, if i want to be rich by 30. crying


innocent
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Apr 4, 2008 4:34 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
lusciousmile: I think it's a combination, of both opportunity and hard work.What could be better, than to have them both? I think, i need to work a little bit harder, if i want to be rich by 30.


Good answer... applause



I've heard different descriptions: Luck equals effort plus opportunity. But then making one self available to opportunities could be a key too.
dunno
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Apr 4, 2008 4:44 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Aries01
Aries01Aries01Kent, England UK47 Threads 4 Polls 2,732 Posts
Slightly off the OP.. but just a comment as I had this discussion with a collegue this evening.. who leans more to the right and is politically connected.. I lean more to the left..

Capitalism has its merits which can't be denied.. when wealth is generated by private industry and development and construction are at their peak, the benefit of that wealth DOES trickle down, it does tend to create jobs and and increase in state revenue which is at the disposal of the state to benefit public services, which in turn facilitate growth and so on.. HOWEVER.... this on its own falls short of what society needs.. for e.g. there will always be a portion of society who for whatever reason are non-productive, say e.g. mentally ill, disabled, uneducated and unskilled etc.. to ignore the needs of this portion of society brings spells discontent even disaster in the long term... those that fall outside the scope of potential enrichment tend to become entrapped in their circumstances if society does not intervene.. a capitalist government is run by money alone, and in this climate are generally resistent to any increase in tax.. which is fine for the majority but unfortunately if certain social issues are not addressed they will create MORE expenditure in the long term.. for most disadvantaged kids for example.. their future prospects do not extend beyond social welfare and prison.. these COST money folks.... lots of it.. its a bit like saving a dime.. spending a dollar.. it doesn't make sense.. and quite apart from the money issue.... wouldn't we all like to feel a little safer?? this is not going to happen as long as society puts money before people wine

As for luck.. yes there can be an element of it sure.. but opportunity is sure as hell not going to come knocking on ur door and drag u out of bed cheers
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Apr 4, 2008 4:45 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
lusciousmile
lusciousmilelusciousmileThere, Aland Islands Finland25 Threads 2 Polls 11,989 Posts
Indyfella: Good answer...
I've heard different descriptions: Luck equals effort plus opportunity. But then making one self available to opportunities could be a key too.



thumbs up

To avail oneself to these opportunities, could require certain resources not available.


crying

Yes, luck does equal effort and opportunity, and neither can be fully sufficient without the other. But, hey....Ben affleck has made it, with only one of them. help grin

Are we really comparing small European nations, to the US.? Population alone, can inhibit success.
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Apr 4, 2008 4:51 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
tampa1
tampa1tampa1London, Ontario Canada56 Threads 3,057 Posts
Does luck determine success?

I suppose there is a little of that needed. As far as welfare states go, I have no problem with a hand up, but the hand out stuff has got to go.
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Apr 4, 2008 4:52 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
patrickthomas
patrickthomaspatrickthomasMullingar, Westmeath Ireland33 Threads 4 Polls 1,911 Posts
I think that you have got to be very careful with drawing conclusions from figures like this, for example Europe particularly the Northern countries pay out a lot more than the U.S. to the individual on welfare, so without crunching these numbers this conclusion may be inaccurate.

He points out Denmark but fails to point out Brazil as interesting. I would feel there is a bias here. It would take more careful analysis to prove such a bias but makes interesting reading nonetheless.

Who was it said "Lies, Lies and dammed statistics"

Although an extremely useful tool when dealing with anything, I always feel that we have to be very careful that there is not a spin (Intentional or Unintentional) put on them.
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Apr 4, 2008 5:13 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
tampa1: Does luck determine success?

I suppose there is a little of that needed. As far as welfare states go, I have no problem with a hand up, but the hand out stuff has got to go.



That graph was really interesting....just to see how countries view success. If you get the chance, go back and take a look.


professor
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Apr 4, 2008 5:15 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
patrickthomas: I think that you have got to be very careful with drawing conclusions from figures like this, for example Europe particularly the Northern countries pay out a lot more than the U.S. to the individual on welfare, so without crunching these numbers this conclusion may be inaccurate.

He points out Denmark but fails to point out Brazil as interesting. I would feel there is a bias here. It would take more careful analysis to prove such a bias but makes interesting reading nonetheless.

Who was it said "Lies, Lies and dammed statistics"

Although an extremely useful tool when dealing with anything, I always feel that we have to be very careful that there is not a spin (Intentional or Unintentional) put on them.



I would agree with you, but then I build in the "spin factor" anytime I read articles from certain organizations. Thanks though. Denmark is interesting. It also helps to explain some things on CS. rolling on the floor laughing thumbs up
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Apr 4, 2008 10:34 PM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
Indyfella
IndyfellaIndyfellaindianapolis, Indiana USA152 Threads 8 Polls 18,150 Posts
Now fess up, did anyone look a the graph. I'm thinking not?
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Jul 12, 2008 11:03 AM CST Does luck determine success? (an interesting read)
alex_192
alex_192alex_192sarasota, USA38 Threads 1,271 Posts
Indyfella: For economists, the economic success of capitalism creates something of a puzzle. When combined with a relatively small government, capitalism is a well-established ticket to improved standards of living. Yet many countries resist. Why?

A flurry of research has shed new light on the question. The fascinating implication of the latest findings is that preexisting social attitudes toward luck may be the crucial determinant of the political path of a society.

The nearby chart is taken from a widely discussed paper by economists Alberto Alesina, Edward Glaeser, and Bruce Sacerdote. The investigators set out to discover why the U.S. does not have a large welfare state (at least compared with Europe) and uncovered a striking difference between Americans and Europeans. If you ask Americans whether the poor are lazy, 60 percent say yes. If you ask Europeans, only 26 percent say yes.

Consider now a striking pattern that is visible in the chart. The authors found that large welfare states emerge in countries where citizens generally believe that luck determines income. If bad behavior (or laziness) is viewed as a source of poverty, then the welfare state is small. America has avoided the fate of Europe because its citizens disproportionately believe that luck is not that important a determinant of one's circumstances, but hard work is.

This might come as a relief to conservative Americans, who are ever fearful that the Left will succeed in imposing its version of a European welfare state. If Americans are predisposed to believe that high incomes are generally merited, then they will be resistant to change, even if sold by a charismatic salesman like Barack Obama.

A related study by Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch has found that rampant corruption tends to precede big national swings to the left. This link is itself related to the picture that emerges from the chart. When capitalists succeed because of bribes and corruption, citizens become less convinced that the income distribution reflects merit, and more willing to redistribute.

Recent corporate scandals, and the shameful behavior of the Republican Congress, set the stage for a left-wing backlash that was fully consistent with the historical precedent. It takes more than luck to maintain a free society. If we are to avoid acquiring a welfare state the size of Europe's, we must be vigilant defenders of the rule of law and merciless punishers of the corrupt among us.

Courtesy of AEI

Go to: to see how various countries graph out. Of course where Denmark lands is interesting!

(This will fall into the CS basement fast.)


something to tink abuot
as well of whta the goverment role is in a capitalist country

it fall fast, people on dating sites will avoid serious topics

(i did not say every one in a dating site)
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