A Memo from Howard Dean ( Archived) (3)

Dear Thomas,
I had to show you this memo that went around headquarters last week after the big wins in Virginia.
THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Yesterday's victories were the result of strong candidates running competitive races based on their values, but they also reflected the wider political landscape. Democrats are poised to take advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with President Bush's failed leadership, the increasing weakness of the Republican "brand," and the increasing strength of our Party. While the GOP is losing ground in its traditional strongholds and their base is shrinking, Republican efforts to use immigration as a wedge issue to distract from their failed leadership once again were unsuccessful.

Republicans Are Losing Ground in Traditional Strongholds: Democrats are expanding the political playing field and eroding the preference for Republicans in key so-called "red state" regions. Dixie, once the heart of the Republican electoral map, is in play again as Southern voters' preference for Republicans continues to wane and break Democratic. At the end of the summer of 2006, Republicans held a four point advantage over Democrats in the generic congressional horserace in the South. According to internal polling from earlier this month, Democrats now enjoy a five point advantage (46 to 41 percent) over the GOP in Southern states. Republican support also continues to erode in the Mountain and Plains states, where Democrats now hold an eight point advantage in the once solidly Republican Plains region. [brilliant corners Research, November 2007]
GOP Brand is Suffering: While a majority of Americans (51 percent) view the Democratic Party favorably, the percentage of Americans with a favorable view of the Republican Party has plummeted to 39 percent, down 12 points since March 2006. The GOP's unfavorable rating is up ten points to 56 percent in that same period. [Washington Post, 11/5/07]
Republican Base is Shrinking: Key elements of the GOP base, including "fiscal conservatives" and "business leaders" are drifting away from the Republican Party "because of the war in Iraq, the growing federal debt and a conservative social agenda they don't share." [Wall Street Journal, 10/2/07] Even white evangelical voters feel that Democrats, not Republicans, are paying more attention to their top issues--the war in Iraq and health care. Just 10 percent of white evangelical voters said Republicans are addressing their top issue, compared to 24 percent who said Democrats are. [CBSNews.com, 1/18/07] The number of young evangelicals (ages 18 - 29) who "steadfastly proclaimed themselves Republicans" dropped 15 points, from 55 percent in 2001 to 40 percent today. [Washington Times, 10/2/07]
Continued

GOP Party IDs at Record Lows: Just one in three Americans identify themselves as Republican in the latest Pew Research Center poll, giving Democrats the widest advantage in voter identification in two decades. [Baltimore Sun, 11/4/07]
Republican Failures on Immigration, Economic Issues Fueling Fall: Despite frustration in many communities with President Bush's failure to address immigration reform and refusal to provide state and local communities the resources they need to enforce existing laws, Republican efforts to use immigration as a wedge issue failedonce again. GOP efforts to fan anti-immigration fears and play on growing economic insecurity and voter's anxiety over job security, stagnating wages, higher living costs, gas prices, and other facets of the George W. Bush "You're On Your Own" Economy failed in the face of strong Democratic candidates who offered real solutions on the critical issues.
Republicans Are Losing On The Issues: The Democratic Party now has double-digit leads over Republicans when voters are asked which party is "better able to manage the federal government," is "more honest and ethical," is "more concerned about people like me" (Democrats lead by 29 points), and is best able to bring about "needed change" (Democrats lead by 22 points). Even on security, Democrats and Republicans are viewed as "equally qualified to face down national security threats." [Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, November 2007]
Republican Morale is Plummeting: Only 36 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents say the GOP "does an excellent or good job" of "standing up for traditional GOP positions," a decline of 25 points since July 2004. [Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, November 2007]
Republicans Aren't Happy With Their Candidates: According to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, "Republicans continue to be less satisfied with their candidate options than Democrats are with theirs." [Washington Post, 11/5/07] For the first time since 1979, no Republican candidate has been able to gain the support of more than 40 percent of Republican voters in the November heading into an election year. Among white evangelical voters, 51 percent are dissatisfied with their choices and say they wish they had more options. [CBSNews.com, 10/18/07]
GOP Obstructionism Is Hurting Congressional Candidates: A recent SurveyUSA poll in seven states with vulnerable Republican Senate seats showed that Democrats are "leading or tied" in five of those races and trailing narrowly in another. [Roll Call, 11/5/07] This shows that the Republican Congressional strategy of obstructing Democratic efforts to fight for the priorities of America's working families is failing, and will cost them seats next year.
THE BOTTOM LINE
In short, while the Democratic Party is better organized, better motivated, and better positioned to make the case for change, the Republican Party is increasingly challenged by "Bush Fatigue," a damaged "brand," a shrinking and demoralized base, and a lack of enthusiasm for its candidates. If Democrats continue to show up everywhere, run on our values, and offer clear solutions on the critical issues, the clear lesson of 2007 is that Democrats are well-positioned to win anywhere in 2008.