AlbertaghostOPCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada5,914 posts
The Heads of the Military were recently sacked in Egypt leaving the Muslim Brotherhood backed Morsi in charge. This report from Strafor poses a new twist.
""Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi is currently evaluating the idea of amending the Camp David accords, a legal adviser to the president said Aug.13. Mohamed Gadallah, the presidential adviser, told Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm that Morsi would like to change the accords with Israel to give Egypt full sovereignty and control over the Sinai Peninsula and allow Cairo to permanently station military forces in the strategic buffer zone, which is currently barred.
Under intense pressure to rebuild Egypt's troubled economy, Morsi may be raising the prospect of changing the accords as a way to extract more economic and military aid from the United States, which wants to avoid any potentially destabilizing changes in the Egypt-Israel relationship. Morsi's overt review of the accords is also intended to signal that the Muslim Brotherhood understands the Egyptian public's disapproval of the peace treaty and is serious about redefining the country's relationship with Israel, the United States and its own military establishment.
Analysis
Amending the terms of the accords would be a politically popular move for Morsi; the Camp David accords, which form the foundation of Egypt's peace treaty with Israel, are widely disliked in Egypt, and public opinion toward Israel in general is also hostile.
Egypt's economy faces serious problems. The public discussion of revising the accords is likely intended to encourage the United States to boost that aid or at the very least prevent Washington from reducing it. The Muslim Brotherhood raised the issue of U.S. financial aid and the peace treaty, warning that a cut in U.S. aid to Egypt -- currently $1.5 billion annually -- would abrogate the peace treaty.
Financial considerations are not the only motive driving Morsi's plan. The Brotherhood has decades of experience in gradually accumulating influence and is now working on ways to curb the military's control over the government and segments of the economy.
The Brotherhood has made the argument that the Camp David accords were imposed on Egypt and on the Egyptian people against their will.
Egypt and Israel have fought four full-scale wars since 1948, in addition to various conflicts and clashes largely in Sinai. The Sinai Peninsula is a controlled buffer, divided into four zones with differing levels of demilitarization.
Despite its reservations, Washington has already acceded to the reality of an Islamist government in Egypt. Israel, faced with turmoil and change on every border, is deeply worried about what will happen in Egypt -- and with the Camp David accords -- over the longer term.
While it is unlikely the Brotherhood wants to suspend or annul the treaty, a potential revision is sure to draw Israel's attention. At the same time, Israel is trying to avoid a scenario in which its own military preparations escalate tensions with Egypt, given the other regional security issues it is already facing. This gives Morsi and the Brotherhood leverage, including the leverage to push for more financial assistance from the United States if it wants to preserve the status quo.
Reviewing the Camp David accords also sends the message that the new government sees its authority over Egypt's foreign policy as equal to that of the previous government, despite the fact that Morsi's powers remain constitutionally undefined and the parliament remains annulled.
The Brotherhood has explicitly stated that it would not abrogate the treaty. That said, given the constraints the president is facing and the urgency with which he needs to revive the ailing Egyptian economy, it's unlikely Egypt will push Israel too far. ""
It would be interesting to hear what President Obama says about this change in the Camp David accords......but will the media have the cutzpah to ask the question?
Do you think that the recent events in the Sinai....the attack on the Egyptian military post that left 16 dead by the militant group....then thier striking into Isreal on a near suicide attack....and now the Egyptian Army striking on the Gaza tunnels and militant group....while Morusi is thinning the Egyptian Generals.....is all staged to achieve this change in the Camp David accords?
It could be Morusi way of saying....give us back the Sinai or you are going to get more militant attacks.....we can patrol the Sinai for you. I got my Muslim Brotherhood Generals in place that can do that for you.
By the way. The US has peace keeping forces in the Sinai.....some of the 82nd is there. I bet the words 'high alert' have been pretty constant since Morusi took office there.
AlbertaghostOPCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada5,914 posts
ttom500: I got one final thought here.
Do you think that the recent events in the Sinai....the attack on the Egyptian military post that left 16 dead by the militant group....then thier striking into Isreal on a near suicide attack....and now the Egyptian Army striking on the Gaza tunnels and militant group....while Morusi is thinning the Egyptian Generals.....is all staged to achieve this change in the Camp David accords?
No. He and his band of bearded men are consolidating power - period. Getting an Israeli asskicking is not in their plans. Israel could on a whim call 'foul' and move into the Sinai and cause a complete lack of confidence in Morsi and his entire inept cabinet without losing a beat.
ttom500: It could be Morusi way of saying....give us back the Sinai or you are going to get more militant attacks.....we can patrol the Sinai for you. I got my Muslim Brotherhood Generals in place that can do that for you.
No. Israel can easily just wipe any forces off the table. The purpose of any negotiations and agreements is to secure stability for the long term. Israel knows the new government needs wins in the public arena and really doesn't give a hoot if the people hate them or, that the government is anti Israel. What they want is a stable government that is scared of Israeli power. So to this end, both seem to be working towards.
ttom500: By the way. The US has peace keeping forces in the Sinai.....some of the 82nd is there. I bet the words 'high alert' have been pretty constant since Morusi took office there.
Albertaghost: No. He and his band of bearded men are consolidating power - period. Getting an Israeli asskicking is not in their plans. Israel could on a whim call 'foul' and move into the Sinai and cause a complete lack of confidence in Morsi and his entire inept cabinet without losing a beat. No. Israel can easily just wipe any forces off the table. The purpose of any negotiations and agreements is to secure stability for the long term. Israel knows the new government needs wins in the public arena and really doesn't give a hoot if the people hate them or, that the government is anti Israel. What they want is a stable government that is scared of Israeli power. So to this end, both seem to be working towards. The MB is not stupid. Patient yes but not dumb.
Morsi became "Pharaoh" overnight! In a short time he will hold as much or more Power than Mubarak had!
ttom500: What a great idea.....place the Egyptian Army next to Israel proper. And return to the 1967 borders all in one change of the Camp David Accords....
For once I agree with you Ttom. It's a great first step toward a lasting solution and a permanent Palestinian independent state.
A multinational army would be required to prevent the Israelis from invading, drive out the settlers, and set it all up of course. Something like the Desert Storm coalition.
ttom500: By the way. The US has peace keeping forces in the Sinai.....some of the 82nd is there. I bet the words 'high alert' have been pretty constant since Morusi took office there.
Wouldn't it be a big surprise if those US troops actually joined with the Egyptians against Israel, in support of the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Of course, even in the face of such a coalition, the hawks of Israel will certainly prefer war to accepting the rights of the Palestinians.
Sounds like the fulfillment of Luke 21:20 may be approaching.
Luke 21:20 20 When you see Jerusalem being surrounded by armies, you will know that its desolation is near. 21 Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those in the city get out, and let those in the country not enter the city. 22 For this is the time of punishment in fulfillment of all that has been written.
And lets not forget that even the initial Camp David accords called for the immediate application of UN resolution 242 (withdrawal of all Israeli settlements from Palestinian territory). Instead Israel built a lot more settlements.
So it's not like the old accords were ever respected by Israel.
RayfromUSA: And lets not forget that even the initial Camp David accords called for the immediate application of UN resolution 242 (withdrawal of all Israeli settlements from Palestinian territory). Instead Israel built a lot more settlements.
So it's not like the old accords were ever respected by Israel.
RayfromUSA: And lets not forget that even the initial Camp David accords called for the immediate application of UN resolution 242 (withdrawal of all Israeli settlements from Palestinian territory). Instead Israel built a lot more settlements.
So it's not like the old accords were ever respected by Israel.
In a statement to the General Assembly on 15 October 1968, the PLO rejected Resolution 242, saying "the implementation of said resolution will lead to the loss of every hope for the establishment of peace and security in Palestine and the Middle East region." In September 1993, the PLO agreed that Resolutions 242 and 338 should be the basis for negotiations with Israel when it signed the Declaration of Principles.
What has the PA done so far to implement anything of 242?
RayfromUSA: And lets not forget that even the initial Camp David accords called for the immediate application of UN resolution 242 (withdrawal of all Israeli settlements from Palestinian territory). Instead Israel built a lot more settlements.
So it's not like the old accords were ever respected by Israel.
Conrad73: In a statement to the General Assembly on 15 October 1968, the PLO rejected Resolution 242, saying "the implementation of said resolution will lead to the loss of every hope for the establishment of peace and security in Palestine and the Middle East region." In September 1993, the PLO agreed that Resolutions 242 and 338 should be the basis for negotiations with Israel when it signed the Declaration of Principles.
What has the PA done so far to implement anything of 242?ZILCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Zilch ? . . . .Isn't that a city in Switzerland ? . .
hell of along way off thread but important . It maybe Turkey that Iran has ago at but it will be NATO that shoots back . Germany was swift to send support to Turkey when Saddam was making noise .
Conrad73: In a statement to the General Assembly on 15 October 1968, the PLO rejected Resolution 242, saying "the implementation of said resolution will lead to the loss of every hope for the establishment of peace and security in Palestine and the Middle East region." In September 1993, the PLO agreed that Resolutions 242 and 338 should be the basis for negotiations with Israel when it signed the Declaration of Principles.
What has the PA done so far to implement anything of 242?ZILCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh yeah I remember 1993. That was when the Israelis went into Palestine, systematically bound and executed the innocent Palestinian police, bulldozed the police stations, wrecked city offices, schools, and hospitals, (etc etc etc) in an effort to destroy all hope of any sort of Palestinian sovereignty.
Kinda made it hard for Palestine to "implement" anything at all don't you think?
AlbertaghostOPCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada5,914 posts
RayfromUSA: Oh yeah I remember 1993. That was when the Israelis went into Palestine, systematically bound and executed the innocent Palestinian police, bulldozed the police stations, wrecked city offices, schools, and hospitals, (etc etc etc) in an effort to destroy all hope of any sort of Palestinian sovereignty.
Kinda made it hard for Palestine to "implement" anything at all don't you think?
Considering they never accepted any resolution for peace I'd say they were stil in a state of war Ray. Hence, any action by Israel to stop the PLO from killing innocent Israelis is valid just like any nation is permitted to stop the enemy from killing their people.
Wondering what part of war you don't understand as Israel was not the one who declared war but rather had nine entities declare it on them when the world decided that they had a right to exist on their historical lands as per UN Resolution 181.
RayfromUSA: Oh yeah I remember 1993. That was when the Israelis went into Palestine, systematically bound and executed the innocent Palestinian police, bulldozed the police stations, wrecked city offices, schools, and hospitals, (etc etc etc) in an effort to destroy all hope of any sort of Palestinian sovereignty.
Kinda made it hard for Palestine to "implement" anything at all don't you think?
ZILCH,Ray! They took on certain Responsibilities which they never carried out! And since they are calling themselves Palestinians,they already have more Land than they historically owned! Gaza is actually all they are entitled to! Gaza was the Philistine Kingdom!
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""Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi is currently evaluating the idea of amending the Camp David accords, a legal adviser to the president said Aug.13. Mohamed Gadallah, the presidential adviser, told Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm that Morsi would like to change the accords with Israel to give Egypt full sovereignty and control over the Sinai Peninsula and allow Cairo to permanently station military forces in the strategic buffer zone, which is currently barred.
Under intense pressure to rebuild Egypt's troubled economy, Morsi may be raising the prospect of changing the accords as a way to extract more economic and military aid from the United States, which wants to avoid any potentially destabilizing changes in the Egypt-Israel relationship. Morsi's overt review of the accords is also intended to signal that the Muslim Brotherhood understands the Egyptian public's disapproval of the peace treaty and is serious about redefining the country's relationship with Israel, the United States and its own military establishment.
Analysis
Amending the terms of the accords would be a politically popular move for Morsi; the Camp David accords, which form the foundation of Egypt's peace treaty with Israel, are widely disliked in Egypt, and public opinion toward Israel in general is also hostile.
Egypt's economy faces serious problems.
The public discussion of revising the accords is likely intended to encourage the United States to boost that aid or at the very least prevent Washington from reducing it. The Muslim Brotherhood raised the issue of U.S. financial aid and the peace treaty, warning that a cut in U.S. aid to Egypt -- currently $1.5 billion annually -- would abrogate the peace treaty.
Financial considerations are not the only motive driving Morsi's plan. The Brotherhood has decades of experience in gradually accumulating influence and is now working on ways to curb the military's control over the government and segments of the economy.
The Brotherhood has made the argument that the Camp David accords were imposed on Egypt and on the Egyptian people against their will.
Egypt and Israel have fought four full-scale wars since 1948, in addition to various conflicts and clashes largely in Sinai. The Sinai Peninsula is a controlled buffer, divided into four zones with differing levels of demilitarization.
Despite its reservations, Washington has already acceded to the reality of an Islamist government in Egypt. Israel, faced with turmoil and change on every border, is deeply worried about what will happen in Egypt -- and with the Camp David accords -- over the longer term.
While it is unlikely the Brotherhood wants to suspend or annul the treaty, a potential revision is sure to draw Israel's attention. At the same time, Israel is trying to avoid a scenario in which its own military preparations escalate tensions with Egypt, given the other regional security issues it is already facing. This gives Morsi and the Brotherhood leverage, including the leverage to push for more financial assistance from the United States if it wants to preserve the status quo.
Reviewing the Camp David accords also sends the message that the new government sees its authority over Egypt's foreign policy as equal to that of the previous government, despite the fact that Morsi's powers remain constitutionally undefined and the parliament remains annulled.
The Brotherhood has explicitly stated that it would not abrogate the treaty. That said, given the constraints the president is facing and the urgency with which he needs to revive the ailing Egyptian economy, it's unlikely Egypt will push Israel too far. ""