NATO Fractures: In U-Turn, Poland Announces It Will No Longer Arm Ukraine (23)
To review, these are some of the major developments and setbacks in only the last few days:
Zelensky fired at least 6 top-ranking defense officials over corruption, after recently firing longtime Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov amid a graft probe.
American transgender spokesperson for Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces Sarah Ashton-Cirillo was suspended indefinitely by the Ukrainian military in an embarrassing debacle.
The New York Times ran an article which said a missile fired by Ukraine - not Russia - struck a busy civilian market ...marking an unexpected establishment media about-face.
Biden has yet to pledge any new weapons for Ukraine as Zelensky is in the US, and there are reports that ATACMS long-range missiles will not be approved.
And most importantly, there's this per Politico...
New: Senators are bracing to give Zelenskyy some tough news tomorrow
That in the face of GOP opposition to aid — and a guv shutdown — they might be sending him home empty handed
W/ @burgessev
— Ursula Perano (@UrsulaPerano) September 20, 2023
A
Delivering any new aid to help defend against Russia, even later this year, is looking tougher than ever.
The obstacles are piling up: House Republicans are skeptical of any new money at all. What’s more, their dysfunction threatens to push the government into a shutdown — a move that certainly gets Zelenskyy no closer to getting the billions requested by the Biden administration. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, are divided over whether to continue providing humanitarian aid, arguing the rest of Europe needs to step up.
As if fully aware that the tap at the expense of the US taxpayer may run dry, Zelensky has been meeting in New York with a who's who of leading banks, hedge funds, and private investors. Fox Business, which broke the story, says the ongoing meetings are part of broader efforts to secure investment for rebuilding Ukraine and fixing destroyed infrastructure:
The meeting was put together by JPMorgan, the big bank serving as Zelenskyy’s financial adviser to attract private capital for a new investment fund to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure destroyed in its war with Russia, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Earlier in the afternoon, Zelenskyy met privately with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, the sources say. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager and has also been advising Zelenskyy on how to attract U.S. private sector money for the rebuilding effort.
The list of invitees, according to sources, includes William Ackman, the head of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital; Ken Griffin of the Citadel investment empire; Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of private equity powerhouse Blackstone; Philipp Hildebrand, a vice chairman at BlackRock; Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor and founder of Bloomberg LP; and Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google and now head of the Schmidt Futures, a philanthropic organization.
Ken Griffin and Bill Ackman meeting with Zelensky to ensure they get first dibs on the juiciest deals in the rebuilding of #Ukraine post war.
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) September 20, 2023
Tomorrow's White House visit, and Zelensky's planned meeting with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will surely be interesting.
Meanwhile, for a foretaste and indicator of how much the tide is turning - and the very different, subdued optics - especially compared to Zelensky's last trip to Washington (in Dec. 2022) when he was received with rockstar status, there's this...
Speaker Kevin McCarthy, facing a right-wing rebellion in his ranks and mounting GOP resistance to aiding Ukraine, has declined to convene a forum for President Volodymyr Zelensky to address members of the House on Thursday during a visit to Capitol Hill.
— The New York Times (@nytimes) September 20,
Zelensky fired at least 6 top-ranking defense officials over corruption, after recently firing longtime Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov amid a graft probe.
American transgender spokesperson for Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces Sarah Ashton-Cirillo was suspended indefinitely by the Ukrainian military in an embarrassing debacle.
The New York Times ran an article which said a missile fired by Ukraine - not Russia - struck a busy civilian market ...marking an unexpected establishment media about-face.
Biden has yet to pledge any new weapons for Ukraine as Zelensky is in the US, and there are reports that ATACMS long-range missiles will not be approved.
And most importantly, there's this per Politico...
New: Senators are bracing to give Zelenskyy some tough news tomorrow
That in the face of GOP opposition to aid — and a guv shutdown — they might be sending him home empty handed
W/ @burgessev
— Ursula Perano (@UrsulaPerano) September 20, 2023
A
Delivering any new aid to help defend against Russia, even later this year, is looking tougher than ever.
The obstacles are piling up: House Republicans are skeptical of any new money at all. What’s more, their dysfunction threatens to push the government into a shutdown — a move that certainly gets Zelenskyy no closer to getting the billions requested by the Biden administration. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, are divided over whether to continue providing humanitarian aid, arguing the rest of Europe needs to step up.
As if fully aware that the tap at the expense of the US taxpayer may run dry, Zelensky has been meeting in New York with a who's who of leading banks, hedge funds, and private investors. Fox Business, which broke the story, says the ongoing meetings are part of broader efforts to secure investment for rebuilding Ukraine and fixing destroyed infrastructure:
The meeting was put together by JPMorgan, the big bank serving as Zelenskyy’s financial adviser to attract private capital for a new investment fund to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure destroyed in its war with Russia, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Earlier in the afternoon, Zelenskyy met privately with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, the sources say. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager and has also been advising Zelenskyy on how to attract U.S. private sector money for the rebuilding effort.
The list of invitees, according to sources, includes William Ackman, the head of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital; Ken Griffin of the Citadel investment empire; Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of private equity powerhouse Blackstone; Philipp Hildebrand, a vice chairman at BlackRock; Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor and founder of Bloomberg LP; and Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google and now head of the Schmidt Futures, a philanthropic organization.
Ken Griffin and Bill Ackman meeting with Zelensky to ensure they get first dibs on the juiciest deals in the rebuilding of #Ukraine post war.
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) September 20, 2023
Tomorrow's White House visit, and Zelensky's planned meeting with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will surely be interesting.
Meanwhile, for a foretaste and indicator of how much the tide is turning - and the very different, subdued optics - especially compared to Zelensky's last trip to Washington (in Dec. 2022) when he was received with rockstar status, there's this...
Speaker Kevin McCarthy, facing a right-wing rebellion in his ranks and mounting GOP resistance to aiding Ukraine, has declined to convene a forum for President Volodymyr Zelensky to address members of the House on Thursday during a visit to Capitol Hill.
— The New York Times (@nytimes) September 20,
did Zelensky explained why did he get 30 millions usd villa from Biden? located in Florida state
exmoond: did Zelensky explained why did he get 30 millions usd villa from Biden? located in Florida state
Aha... so I suppose the 'big guy' is as big as suggested by his son after all then.Rumor had it Poland was taking part of the Ukraine, Z even invited Polish troops in.
Then Wagner moved into Belarus.
Maybe the Poles decided it was not worth the effort but will grab it when Ukraine and the west fall even further economically and in Ukraine demographically.
Then Wagner moved into Belarus.
Maybe the Poles decided it was not worth the effort but will grab it when Ukraine and the west fall even further economically and in Ukraine demographically.
What I know about Poland from own experience is that the people is
goodhearted and helpful, very much so.
But not downright stupid- they're practical in everything they do.
Now their government is rather extreme (PIS) and not really supported by the (same) majority.
And them can make U turns like this... handbrake on!
and it makes me smile a bit I must say cos I think this is a wake up call for EU!
The polish lovely nice neighbours has taken in millions of Ukrainian (brothers and sisters)
cudos the warm heartedness they showed, and the cost it took and still still takes.
But somewhere the a line must be drawn before the Polish nation itself suffer, and this is that line.
What I'm saying is the Polacs takes orders from noone. That is history.
goodhearted and helpful, very much so.
But not downright stupid- they're practical in everything they do.
Now their government is rather extreme (PIS) and not really supported by the (same) majority.
And them can make U turns like this... handbrake on!
and it makes me smile a bit I must say cos I think this is a wake up call for EU!
The polish lovely nice neighbours has taken in millions of Ukrainian (brothers and sisters)
cudos the warm heartedness they showed, and the cost it took and still still takes.
But somewhere the a line must be drawn before the Polish nation itself suffer, and this is that line.
What I'm saying is the Polacs takes orders from noone. That is history.
online today!exmoond: did Zelensky explained why did he get 30 millions usd villa from Biden? located in Florida state
The claim: Zelenskyy has a Florida home, $1.2 billion in overseas account, 15 homes, 3 planes and $11 million in monthly incomeA Feb. 25 Instagram post (direct link, archived link) claims Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accumulated vast wealth overseas.
"The President of Ukraine owns a 35 million dollar home in Florida and has $1.2 billion in a overseas bank account," reads the post. "Zelensky owns 15 homes, 3 private planes, and has a monthly income of 11 million dollars. Why is no one questioning where our AID is going?"
The post generated over 2,000 likes in less than two months.
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Our rating: False
An investigative expert said that there's no evidence of the assets listed in the post, and Forbes, which tracks Zelenskyy's assets, also found no evidence of these assets. None of Florida's public records show that Zelenskyy owns a home in the state. Zelenskyy's spokesperson and 2020 financial disclosure also contradict the claim.
No evidence of the assets in post
There's no evidence Zelenskyy has any of the assets listed in the post, according to Drew Sullivan, co-founder and publisher of the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project.
“He does not have a house in Florida, nor did we find evidence of (a $1.2 billion) overseas account, but bank accounts are generally private and come out in leaks,” Sullivan said in an email. “There is no evidence of 15 homes, private planes, etc."
Sullivan also said "these fake numbers are being pushed by non-credible sources – social media accounts that regularly parrot Russian propaganda."
online today!gonelikethewimd: The link
Yes I actually trust Us propaganda.Pandora Papers Reveal Offshore Holdings of Ukrainian President and his Inner Circle
Actor Volodymyr Zelensky stormed to the Ukrainian presidency in 2019 on a wave of public anger against the country’s political class, including previous leaders who used secret companies to stash their wealth overseas.
Now, leaked documents prove that Zelensky and his inner circle have had their own network of offshore companies. Two belonging to the president’s partners were used to buy expensive property in London.
The revelations come from documents in the Pandora Papers, millions of files from 14 offshore service providers leaked to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and shared with partners around the world including OCCRP.
The documents show that Zelensky and his partners in a television production company, Kvartal 95, set up a network of offshore firms dating back to at least 2012, the year the company began making regular content for TV stations owned by Ihor Kolomoisky, an oligarch dogged by allegations of multi-billion-dollar fraud. The offshores were also used by Zelensky associates to purchase and own three prime properties in the center of London.
The documents also show that just before he was elected, he gifted his stake in a key offshore company, the British Virgin Islands-registered Maltex Multicapital Corp., to his business partner — soon to be his top presidential aide. And in spite of giving up his shares, the documents show that an arrangement was soon made that would allow the offshore to keep paying dividends to a company that now belongs to his wife.
Pandora Papers
The Pandora Papers are 11.9 million leaked documents with 2.9 terabytes of data that the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) published beginning on 3 October 2021. The leak exposed the secret offshore accounts of 35 world leaders, including current and former presidents, prime ministers, and heads of state as well as more than 100 billionaires, celebrities, and business leaders. The news organizations of the ICIJ described the document leak as their most expansive exposé of financial secrecy yet, containing documents, images, emails and spreadsheets from 14 financial service companies, in nations including Panama, Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates, surpassing their previous release of the Panama Papers in 2016, which had 11.5 million confidential documents (2.6 terabytes). At the time of the release of the papers, the ICIJ said it is not identifying its source for the documents.
Estimates by the ICIJ of money held offshore (outside the country where the money was made) range from US$5.6 trillion to US$32 trillion.[3
In total, 35 current and former national leaders appear in the leak, alongside 400 public officials from nearly 100 countries and more than 100 billionaires. As per laws of tax, some of the activities were legal but could not be justified. Some files were showing the date of 1970, but they were actually created between the years 1996 to 2020. The data included 130 billionaires listed by Forbes, over 330 politicians, celebrities, members of royal families and religious leaders. Among those names are former British prime minister Tony Blair, Chilean president Sebastián Piñera, former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta, Montenegrin president Milo Ðukanovic, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Qatari emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, United Arab Emirates prime minister and Dubai ruler Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Gabonese president Ali Bongo Ondimba, Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati, Ecuadorian president Guillermo Lasso, family members of former Argentine president Mauricio Macri and his spin-doctor, Ecuadorian Jaime Durán Barba, and Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades.
More than 100 billionaires, 29,000 offshore accounts, 30 current and former leaders, and 336 politicians were named in the first leaks on 3 October 2021.
King Abdullah II of Jordan is one of the main figures named in the papers, with documents showing he had invested over US$100 million in property across the UK and the US; they included houses in Malibu, California, Washington, D.C., London and Ascot. A UK company controlled by Cherie Blair was shown to have acquired a £6.45 million property in London by purchasing Romanstone International Limited, a British Virgin Islands company; had the property been acquired directly, £312,000 would have been payable in stamp duty. Tony Blair's name appears in a statement of joint income for the associated mortgage.
The papers also reveal how an office block owned by Azerbaijan's ruling Aliyev family was sold to the Crown Estate, the sovereign's public estate, for £66 million in 2018, netting the Aliyevs a £31 million profit. Another office block worth £33 million was sold to the family in 2009, and was gifted to the son of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, Heydar. According to Las Vegas Sun, "Members of the inner circle of Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan are accused of hiding millions of dollars in wealth in secret companies or trusts". Supporters of former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko accused his successor Zelensky, who came to power on an anti-corruption campaign, of tax evasion. Elsewhere, close associates of Russian president Vladimir Putin, like Svetlana Krivonogikh and Gennady Timchenko, were revealed to have secret assets in Monaco, and Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš, who had campaigned on promising to crack down on corruption and tax evasion, did not declare the use of an offshore investment company in the purchase of eight properties, including two villas, in Mougins on the French Riviera for £12 million. As a result of the Pandora Papers, more information emerged about Russia-linked, allegedly Kremlin-linked, donations to the Tories. Uhuru Kenyatta was also mentioned, despite being quoted in 2018 as stating, "Every public servant's assets must be declared publicly so that people can question and ask – what is legitimate?" Kenyatta and six members of his family have been linked to 13 offshore companies. The leaked list also includes transnational criminal organization leaders, such as Raffaele Amato, boss of the Amato-Pagano clan, a clan within the Camorra, dedicated to international drug trafficking. Amato used a shell company in the UK to buy land and real estate in Spain.
More than 100 billionaires, 29,000 offshore accounts, 30 current and former leaders, and 336 politicians were named in the first leaks on 3 October 2021.
King Abdullah II of Jordan is one of the main figures named in the papers, with documents showing he had invested over US$100 million in property across the UK and the US; they included houses in Malibu, California, Washington, D.C., London and Ascot. A UK company controlled by Cherie Blair was shown to have acquired a £6.45 million property in London by purchasing Romanstone International Limited, a British Virgin Islands company; had the property been acquired directly, £312,000 would have been payable in stamp duty. Tony Blair's name appears in a statement of joint income for the associated mortgage.
The papers also reveal how an office block owned by Azerbaijan's ruling Aliyev family was sold to the Crown Estate, the sovereign's public estate, for £66 million in 2018, netting the Aliyevs a £31 million profit. Another office block worth £33 million was sold to the family in 2009, and was gifted to the son of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, Heydar. According to Las Vegas Sun, "Members of the inner circle of Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan are accused of hiding millions of dollars in wealth in secret companies or trusts". Supporters of former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko accused his successor Zelensky, who came to power on an anti-corruption campaign, of tax evasion. Elsewhere, close associates of Russian president Vladimir Putin, like Svetlana Krivonogikh and Gennady Timchenko, were revealed to have secret assets in Monaco, and Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš, who had campaigned on promising to crack down on corruption and tax evasion, did not declare the use of an offshore investment company in the purchase of eight properties, including two villas, in Mougins on the French Riviera for £12 million. As a result of the Pandora Papers, more information emerged about Russia-linked, allegedly Kremlin-linked, donations to the Tories. Uhuru Kenyatta was also mentioned, despite being quoted in 2018 as stating, "Every public servant's assets must be declared publicly so that people can question and ask – what is legitimate?" Kenyatta and six members of his family have been linked to 13 offshore companies. The leaked list also includes transnational criminal organization leaders, such as Raffaele Amato, boss of the Amato-Pagano clan, a clan within the Camorra, dedicated to international drug trafficking. Amato used a shell company in the UK to buy land and real estate in Spain.
Other global names mentioned include Shakira, who was incorporating new offshore entities while going on trial for tax evasion; model Claudia Schiffer; Indian cricket player Sachin Tendulkar; Indian billionaire Anil Ambani; fugitive diamantaire Nirav Modi’s sister Purvi Modi; Alexandre Cazes, the founder of the dark web site AlphaBay, used to deal in illegal drugs; Pakistani finance minister, Shaukat Fayaz Ahmed Tarin, and several of family members of Pakistan's top generals; and the CEO of Channel One Russia, Konstantin Ernst. Miguel Bosé, Pep Guardiola and Julio Iglesias are also named.[3
Was Volodymyr Zelensky in the Panama Papers? Offshore Companies Revealed
Ukrainian "anti-oligarch" President Volodymyr Zelensky and his inner circle's network of offshore companies were not exposed in Panama Papers but can be found in the Pandora Papers, another tranche of files leaked by journalists that revealed the clandestine financial affairs of the elite and super rich.
The huge leak of tax haven files by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) revealed the secret offshore holdings of 336 politicians from more than 90 countries, Zelensky among them.
The former comedian was elected Ukraine's president in April 2019 to help fight corruption and the influence of oligarchs on the ex-Soviet country. He rode into the presidency on a wave of public anger over the corruption of the country's political class, including some who used shell companies to hide their wealth overseas.
The Pandora Papers, published in October 2021, showed that Zelensky and his inner circle established a web of offshore companies in 2012. They show that the president and the partners in his television company, Kvartal 95, had offshore firms when they were making regular content for TV stations owned by Ihor Kolomoisky, an oligarch accused of multibillion-dollar fraud.
Perhaps the most famous show Zelensky was in was Servant of the People. Zelensky plays a history teacher whose anti-corruption rant in class is filmed by a student, goes viral online, and wins him the presidency.
The Pandora Papers showed that two offshore companies belonging to Zelensky's partners were used to buy three upmarket properties in central London.
The papers showed that weeks before he won the presidential vote, Zelensky gave his stake in the British Virgin Islands-registered Maltex Multicapital Corp. to his business partner, Serhiy Shefir, who would later become a top presidential aide.
However, the document shows that an arrangement would soon be made to allow the company to continue paying dividends to a company that belongs to Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska. The Pandora Papers did not indicate whether the dividends were ever paid or their size. The documents also don't say how many dividends were paid.
Shefir produced Zelensky's hit TV shows. Shefir's brother, Borys, who wrote the scripts, is also listed as an owner in Zelensky's network of offshore companies. Ivan Bakanov, a general director of Kvartal 95 and a longtime friend of the president, also has ownership in the companies. Bakanov was head of Ukraine's powerful SBU security agency between 2019 and 2022.
A Zelensky adviser at the time claimed that the companies were formed to "protect" the group's income against the "aggressive actions" of the "corrupt" government of then pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych.
"Journalists have de facto confirmed the president's absolute respect for the standards of anti-corruption legislation," Zelensky adviser Mykhailo Podoliak told the AFP news agency at the time.
Newsweek reached out to Zelensky's office for comment. He has not publicly commented on the claim so far.
I guess those other sources were wrong.
Well, the Ukraine is a corrupt money pit. And the conflict has cost the Poles dearly in a variety of economic ways. I can see them attempting to occupy the Western part of the Ukraine once the conflict is over.
The conflict will be over when Russia finally decides to crush what little resistance remains or a few Ukrainian generals decide to stage a coup and then negotiate as best they can.
It is naive to think any amount of military aid or economic sanctions will force Russia to negotiate, particularly as they really don't need to.
The conflict will be over when Russia finally decides to crush what little resistance remains or a few Ukrainian generals decide to stage a coup and then negotiate as best they can.
It is naive to think any amount of military aid or economic sanctions will force Russia to negotiate, particularly as they really don't need to.
OddTraveller: Well, the Ukraine is a corrupt money pit. And the conflict has cost the Poles dearly in a variety of economic ways. I can see them attempting to occupy the Western part of the Ukraine once the conflict is over.
The conflict will be over when Russia finally decides to crush what little resistance remains or a few Ukrainian generals decide to stage a coup and then negotiate as best they can.
It is naive to think any amount of military aid or economic sanctions will force Russia to negotiate, particularly as they really don't need to.
I disagree with the crush all resistance.The conflict will be over when Russia finally decides to crush what little resistance remains or a few Ukrainian generals decide to stage a coup and then negotiate as best they can.
It is naive to think any amount of military aid or economic sanctions will force Russia to negotiate, particularly as they really don't need to.
The conflict will end when the US and EU fragment due to poverty. Russia is draining every last cent from both and making new friends with lots of resources world wide.
Friends that hate the US and EU colonizers.
What happens in the EU when winter comes?
Part of this from the US standpoint is to make the EU more of a vassal then it already is.
Something literally half of the Ukraine populace has fled and the other half are being conscripted. Plus you have a vast amount who have lost limbs.
One of my favorite bits of History .
"Oct 6 1014
Czar Samuil of Bulgaria dies after an army of 15,000 of his men is returned, blinded by his enemy Emperor Basil of the Byzantine Empire. One out of every hundred of his men was permitted to keep one eye, such that they were able to return home. For this victory Basil earned the title Bulgaroctonus, slayer of Bulgars."
The genius was in crippling the workers and future conscripts putting more of a burden on the state than the physical damage would suggest. You lose at least a generation of potential soldiers and farmers. All a burden.
That is the essence of the Russian meat grinder.
Sun Tzu had a similar observation where each village section was divided into ten families. Taking a thousand troops affected ten thousand people.
The war is an inexpensive way to remove old weaponry and the US and EU will not have to pay to decommission. Plus they can now launder new money via the MIC in rebuilding the arsenals.
What the US is doing brilliantly and no one pays attention to this, is putting national rescources out of use by making them public lands.
Everyone else eats up there oil and other materials and we keep ours for after the bombs drop.
Who ever first thought of that was a genius that looked way down the road, further than damn near everyone else.
The Ukrainian government has publicly admitted that only 1 or 2 of every ten men recruited last year is still in the fight. So 80-90% are dead, crippled or captured. They simply lack the manpower to keep going.
Of course the Russian have also suffered losses. But it is 1 Russian for every 7-10 Ukrainians. It isn't an issue with bravery. They are outnumbered, outgunned, and lack adequate medical evacuation. Plus, they threw themselves at a rather impressive Russian defensive belt without any hope of success.
The Ukrainian is asking countries caring for their refugees to hand of Ukrainian men of draft age. I doubt they will have much luck getting those countries to be their press gangs.
Of course the Russian have also suffered losses. But it is 1 Russian for every 7-10 Ukrainians. It isn't an issue with bravery. They are outnumbered, outgunned, and lack adequate medical evacuation. Plus, they threw themselves at a rather impressive Russian defensive belt without any hope of success.
The Ukrainian is asking countries caring for their refugees to hand of Ukrainian men of draft age. I doubt they will have much luck getting those countries to be their press gangs.
How Will The Biden Administration Cope With Its Loss In Ukraine?
While this piece will touch on the war in Ukraine it is more about the U.S., and the Biden administration, and how they will cope with their defeat in their war on Russia. Please keep that in mind when commentating.
Washington's moment of recognizing the defeat in Ukraine, and its consequences, has yet to arrive.
In his latest piece (archived) Seymour Hersh reports on the state of the war and of significant differences of opinion between the U.S. intelligence services:
There are significant elements in the American intelligence community, relying on field reports and technical intelligence, who believe that the demoralized Ukraine army has given up on the possibility of overcoming the heavily mined three-tier Russian defense lines and taking the war to Crimea and the four oblasts seized and annexed by Russia. The reality is that Volodymyr Zelensky’s battered army no longer has any chance of a victory.
The war continues, I have been told by an official with access to current intelligence, because Zelensky insists that it must. There is no discussion in his headquarters or in the Biden White House of a ceasefire and no interest in talks that could lead to an end to the slaughter. “It’s all lies,” the official said, speaking of the Ukrainian claims of incremental progress in the offensive that has suffered staggering losses, while gaining ground in a few scattered areas that the Ukrainian military measures in meters per week.
...
The American intelligence official I spoke with spent the early years of his career working against Soviet aggression and spying has respect for Putin’s intellect but contempt for his decision to go to war with Ukraine and to initiate the death and destruction that war brings. But, as he told me, “The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going.
“The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House.”
The differences between the current CIA and the more neoconned Defense Intelligence Agency extend to their view on China:
Fabulous.
MysteriousGirl80: Fabulous.
BOOM goes the Russian bomb.DLMac: BOOM goes the Russian bomb.
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he dam is breaking on unified Western support for Ukraine, and the timing couldn't be worse for Zelensky, given tomorrow he's expected to meet with President Biden at the White House. On Wednesday evening there is monumental news out of Poland which could potentially change the entire course of the war.
"Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense," Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine's ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev's staunchest and most outspoken supporter.
Will this massive and hugely significant about-face mark the beginning of the end? Are peace negotiations and ceding of territory in the Donbas inevitable at this point?
Within the last 48 hours relations between Poland and Ukraine quickly spiraled to their lowest point since the Russian invasion, and it is directly related to Warsaw leading a handful of EU countries to extend a grain export ban on Ukraine, amid continuing anger and outrage from Polish farmers who are suffering due to their country being flooded with cheap Ukrainian wheat.
Crucially, Poland will hold parliamentary elections on Oct.15. The prior atmosphere of enthusiastic pro-Kiev rhetoric has drastically changed, now with comparisons likening Ukraine to a "drowning man". As The Associated Press explains:
Polish leaders have compared Ukraine to a drowning person hurting his helper and threatened to expand a ban on food products from the war-torn country. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that EU allies that are prohibiting imports of his nation’s grain are helping Russia.
Now, Polish officials, who are trying to win parliamentary elections next month with help from farmers’ votes, are expressing dismay over some of Ukraine’s latest moves, including a World Trade Organization complaint over bans on Ukrainian grain from Poland and two other EU countries.
Poland’s elections are Oct. 15…
— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) September 20, 2023
In surprisingly blunt and terse words given to reporters on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Tuesday: "Ukraine is behaving like a drowning person clinging to anything available."
He then said, "A drowning person is extremely dangerous, capable of pulling you down to the depths?… simply drown the rescuer." Given Ukraine's battlefield losses and as it's currently bogged down in a failing counteroffensive, the words no doubt stung. But as The Hill notes further of the domestic political context in Poland:
Public sentiment around the issue, however, has started to deteriorate, putting the ruling party in a difficult position ahead of a close October election. The far-right Confederation party is hoping to capitalize on the waning support in the country.
Reuters reported that a recent poll showed support for Ukrainian refugees fell from 91 percent when the war started to just 69 percent recently. The same survey showed a quarter of Poles are against supporting refugees, compared to 4 percent in early 2022.
In response to the grain ban, Zelensky during his UN speech had condemned the "alarming" behavior of allies regarding the import ban, but without naming Poland specifically. Further, Kiev has announced plans to sue Warsaw in the World Trade Organization while also holding out the possibility of its own embargo on Polish foodstuffs, including onions, tomatoes, cabbage, and apples. Again, all of this amounts to a full-blown diplomatic crisis for Zelensky which couldn't come at a worse time, as he's in D.C.