Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated. ( Archived) (73)

Aug 5, 2012 3:25 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Possibly just got more complicated!
Seems the Idea of an Independent Kurdistan is far from dead!

IRAQ-SYRIA: As Kurds enter the fray, risk of conflict grows



ERBIL/DOMIZ/BERLIN, 2 August 2012 (IRIN) - The flag of Kurdistan is draped over the walls of public buildings in Afrin in northern Syria: After the security forces left the small town near the Turkish border two weeks ago, the Syrian banners have all but disappeared.

Instead, new colours have been raised, not only the Kurdish national colours, but also those of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), deemed a “terrorist” organizations by many countries because of its bloody fight for separation or at least autonomy from Turkey for 30 years.
______________________

Moves by Syrian Kurds Worry Turkey



ISTANBUL — In Syria, the seizing of control by Syrian Kurds of towns close to the Turkish border has raised concerns in the Turkish capital, Ankara. Turkish authorities say Syrian Kurds might seek to create their own autonomous state, fueling similar demands from Turkey's Kurdish minority.

News of Syrian Kurds taking control of towns from forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has raised concerns in Ankara, according to defense correspondent Metehan Demir of the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet. He says long-standing Turkish fears of the creation of an independent Kurdish state have resurfaced.
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Aug 5, 2012 4:01 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
robplum
robplumrobplumEnsay, Victoria Australia107 Threads 1 Polls 12,031 Posts
I was reading today, the Chinese navy vessels heading into the Mediterranean that have just passed through the Suez Canal are heading towards Syria there they intend to exercise with the Russians
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Aug 5, 2012 4:18 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Albertaghost
AlbertaghostAlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada76 Threads 5 Polls 5,914 Posts
robplum: I was reading today, the Chinese navy vessels heading into the Mediterranean that have just passed through the Suez Canal are heading towards Syria there they intend to exercise with the Russians


Read that too but the part about the exercising is as far as I know incorrect. I can see that they would want to have a couple of ships near Syria to evac diplomats though.
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Aug 5, 2012 4:19 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
robplum: I was reading today, the Chinese navy vessels heading into the Mediterranean that have just passed through the Suez Canal are heading towards Syria there they intend to exercise with the Russians
you can bet those two will do whatever it takes to keep Assad in power!
Their presence in the Mediterranean depends on that!
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Aug 5, 2012 4:20 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Conrad73: you can bet those two will do whatever it takes to keep Assad in power!
Their presence in the Mediterranean depends on that!
No Assad,most likely no Docking and other Facilities for them in Syria!
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Aug 5, 2012 4:20 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Albertaghost
AlbertaghostAlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada76 Threads 5 Polls 5,914 Posts
Conrad73: Possibly just got more complicated!
Seems the Idea of an Independent Kurdistan is far from dead!


And more still;

Stratfor;

""The deputy chief of Syrian air force intelligence in Deir el-Zour, Brig. Gen. Nasr Mustafa, defected to the Free Syrian Army on Aug. 2. On the same day, the Syrian army deployed additional reinforcements to Aleppo, Syria's largest city and economic capital, to help reclaim the city from the rebels.

The defection is significant because Mustafa is an Alawite -- as is Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who needs unity among this religious sect to retain power. Losing Mustafa suggests the regime likewise may be losing control of its Alawite-dominated intelligence and security apparatus. Meanwhile, the regime may be growing more desperate as its offensive against Aleppo continues.""
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Aug 5, 2012 4:22 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Albertaghost: And more still;

Stratfor;

""The deputy chief of Syrian air force intelligence in Deir el-Zour, Brig. Gen. Nasr Mustafa, defected to the Free Syrian Army on Aug. 2. On the same day, the Syrian army deployed additional reinforcements to Aleppo, Syria's largest city and economic capital, to help reclaim the city from the rebels.

The defection is significant because Mustafa is an Alawite -- as is Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who needs unity among this religious sect to retain power. Losing Mustafa suggests the regime likewise may be losing control of its Alawite-dominated intelligence and security apparatus. Meanwhile, the regime may be growing more desperate as its offensive against Aleppo continues.""
seems Assad's Woes are just starting!
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Aug 5, 2012 4:28 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
robplum
robplumrobplumEnsay, Victoria Australia107 Threads 1 Polls 12,031 Posts
I didn't catch the full giff of what was been said about the Chinese ships, but thought someone expressed that they would be joining with the Russian Navy to sail single file between any US ships and Syria
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Aug 5, 2012 4:32 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Albertaghost
AlbertaghostAlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada76 Threads 5 Polls 5,914 Posts
Conrad73: seems Assad's Woes are just starting!


He's got some serious problems and, those loyal to him are losing their opportunities to get out alive. I feel this is going to leverage the situation in various ways as any that are left in the regime will be left with few choices but to survive as the odds grow against them and result in a scenario where they may wish to surrender but won't be able to as they will face execution so will fight with whatever means and resources they have access to.

The probability for a lot of death is nigh.
sad flower
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Aug 5, 2012 4:35 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Albertaghost: He's got some serious problems and, those loyal to him are losing their opportunities to get out alive. I feel this is going to leverage the situation in various ways as any that are left in the regime will be left with few choices but to survive as the odds grow against them and result in a scenario where they may wish to surrender but won't be able to as they will face execution so will fight with whatever means and resources they have access to.

The probability for a lot of death is nigh.
seems we are getting close to another Fuhrer-Bunker Situation!
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Aug 5, 2012 2:58 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
So we are going to have the Syria/Iranian/Russian/Chinese Navies in the western Med and near Israel water and Israeli coast. With a Civil War going on in Syria. And with a recent change in Government in Egypt ....to one that is more hardline Islamic.

Add to that Iran with new long range ICBM that is just tested. And with a nuclear program that some say is ready to test a nuc.

Add to this mix on the ground in Syria, you have a 15,000 man Iranian Quds Force. Russian Spetnaz and Marines. Kurdish PPK. alQeada units.
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas in Gaza and the enclaves border cities.

All this is brought together, just a few months prior to the US Presidential election of 2012. Were neither pf the two running candidates are talking about it much.

I say this. Assad is just mouth piece taking orders from Moscow. He takes some small act of rebellion then harshly supresses them. Then a small revolt begins. This 16 months ago.

Then continuing to supress the Sunni, Assad forces have some atrocities and a real civil war begins. Russian and China block the UN
resolutions. Iran and Russia rush in support units to Assad. Then this thing really heats up. Turkey has a F-$ shot down. NATO is advised vote to support Turkey. Both side move units to the border.

Kofi Annan UN peace plan for peace is removed and it seems a hopeless situation. Now Russia/China/Iran move naval forces into the area.

First question. How can Naval Forces determine the outcome of a land civil war in Syria? They cannot. Warship are about as much help in Syria's civil war as horse calvary with drawn sabers charge.

Second question. What do Russia and China get with Assad staying power?
Syria is a 1000 miles from Russia and 5000 miles from China. Sure Russia get a MED port, Tarsus to use. But Russia has resupply vessels that can refuel and rearm the Russia MED flottila at sea.

The MED has never been what I would call a region of influence for the Chinese. Why do either really care about Assad, other than he is a major buyer of weapons. Even if the Sunni win, they can get weapons sales with the new regime. They will in Egypt.

Third question. Would Iran commit major forces into Syria's Civil war?
I mean 200,000 or more. Assad is really man short. He has equipment.
But not the man power to use it. If Assad is asking Russia for weapons....eg....tanks....personnel carrier ....I bet he is also asking Iran for major deployment of manpower.

But with all these naval deployments....there is more going on here.
Ship in a land war are about useful as .....well a Calvary charge on water.
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Aug 5, 2012 4:04 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
RayfromUSA
RayfromUSARayfromUSAvienne, Rhone-Alpes France86 Threads 29 Polls 6,611 Posts
Nothing complicated about it at all.

It's the same old standard "regime change" plan that the CIA always uses.

1. Create and arm a Contra-type opposition force and use it to kill a
lot of civilians and soldiers.
3. Blame the government for the all the violence.
4. Seek to impose international sanctions that prevent the government
from effectively quelling the violence.
5. Pay or coerce some individuals to make false claims of brutality.
6. Establish bases just across the border protected by foreign power
thereby allowing the insurgents to raid the country from safe havens.
7. Use the international press to continually blame the country's
government and mount pressure for the leader's replacement.

Nothing complicated about it.
Tried and proven in Asia, South America, Africa, Europe, and just about everywhere else.

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Aug 5, 2012 4:45 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
RayfromUSA
RayfromUSARayfromUSAvienne, Rhone-Alpes France86 Threads 29 Polls 6,611 Posts
ttom500:
So we are going to have the Syria/Iranian/Russian/Chinese Navies in the western Med and near Israel water and Israeli coast.


Well of course.
That's been the plan all along.
Palestine is the OK Corral of the entire world.
The site of the planned showdown.

The Zionists think a coalition of western powers will come to save them. But the globalists plan is to destroy Israel as the foundational act of their new Global Dictatorship. When the showdown comes not one nation will side with Israel.

ttom500:
Add to that Iran with new long range ICBM that is just tested. And with a nuclear program that some say is ready to test a nuc.


"Some say"? perhaps.
You can find "some" who say just about anything, for a price.
But nobody who is honest and informed would make such a ridiculous claim. Iran doesn't even have a breeder reactor. It doesn't have any plutonium. It can't even produce fuel grade uranium.
Much less weapons grade uranium.

Your fearmongering claims are the same as those that led up to the attack on Iraq.

ttom500:
Add to this mix on the ground in Syria, you have a 15,000 man Iranian Quds Force. Russian Spetnaz and Marines. Kurdish PPK. alQeada units.
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas in Gaza and the enclaves border cities.


There are no Iranian forces in Syria.
There are no Russian forces in Syria.
The Kurdish forces are anti-Syrian.
Al Qaeda is, (and always has been) just a CIA boogeyman force of a couple hundred people at most.
Hezbollah is part of the legitimate Lebanese Defense force.
The only thing keeping Israel from invading the entire levant.
Hamas is an Israeli created and armed organization that was used to steal authority from the PLO and destroy world support for the rights of Palestine.

ttom500: All this is brought together, just a few months prior to the US Presidential election of 2012.


Why what a coincidence that is.
Just when Obama needs a world crisis to boost his popularity one comes along. Sounds practically Bush-esque doesn't it?




I say this. Assad is just mouth piece taking orders from Moscow. He takes some small act of rebellion then harshly supresses them. Then a small revolt begins. This 16 months ago.

Then continuing to supress the Sunni, Assad forces have some atrocities and a real civil war begins. Russian and China block the UN
resolutions. Iran and Russia rush in support units to Assad. Then this thing really heats up. Turkey has a F-$ shot down. NATO is advised vote to support Turkey. Both side move units to the border.

Kofi Annan UN peace plan for peace is removed and it seems a hopeless situation. Now Russia/China/Iran move naval forces into the area.

First question. How can Naval Forces determine the outcome of a land civil war in Syria? They cannot. Warship are about as much help in Syria's civil war as horse calvary with drawn sabers charge.

Second question. What do Russia and China get with Assad staying power?
Syria is a 1000 miles from Russia and 5000 miles from China. Sure Russia get a MED port, Tarsus to use. But Russia has resupply vessels that can refuel and rearm the Russia MED flottila at sea.

The MED has never been what I would call a region of influence for the Chinese. Why do either really care about Assad, other than he is a major buyer of weapons. Even if the Sunni win, they can get weapons sales with the new regime. They will in Egypt.

Third question. Would Iran commit major forces into Syria's Civil war?
I mean 200,000 or more. Assad is really man short. He has equipment.
But not the man power to use it. If Assad is asking Russia for weapons....eg....tanks....personnel carrier ....I bet he is also asking Iran for major deployment of manpower.

But with all these naval deployments....there is more going on here.
Ship in a land war are about useful as .....well a Calvary charge on water.
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Aug 5, 2012 4:53 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
RayfromUSA
RayfromUSARayfromUSAvienne, Rhone-Alpes France86 Threads 29 Polls 6,611 Posts
Oops, In my post above the following Ttom text should have been erased before I hit the post button. My bad.

Not one word of this foolishness should be attributed to me.



I say this. Assad is just mouth piece taking orders from Moscow. He takes some small act of rebellion then harshly supresses them. Then a small revolt begins. This 16 months ago.

Then continuing to supress the Sunni, Assad forces have some atrocities and a real civil war begins. Russian and China block the UN
resolutions. Iran and Russia rush in support units to Assad. Then this thing really heats up. Turkey has a F-$ shot down. NATO is advised vote to support Turkey. Both side move units to the border.

Kofi Annan UN peace plan for peace is removed and it seems a hopeless situation. Now Russia/China/Iran move naval forces into the area.

First question. How can Naval Forces determine the outcome of a land civil war in Syria? They cannot. Warship are about as much help in Syria's civil war as horse calvary with drawn sabers charge.

Second question. What do Russia and China get with Assad staying power?
Syria is a 1000 miles from Russia and 5000 miles from China. Sure Russia get a MED port, Tarsus to use. But Russia has resupply vessels that can refuel and rearm the Russia MED flottila at sea.

The MED has never been what I would call a region of influence for the Chinese. Why do either really care about Assad, other than he is a major buyer of weapons. Even if the Sunni win, they can get weapons sales with the new regime. They will in Egypt.

Third question. Would Iran commit major forces into Syria's Civil war?
I mean 200,000 or more. Assad is really man short. He has equipment.
But not the man power to use it. If Assad is asking Russia for weapons....eg....tanks....personnel carrier ....I bet he is also asking Iran for major deployment of manpower.

But with all these naval deployments....there is more going on here.
Ship in a land war are about useful as .....well a Calvary charge on water.
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Aug 5, 2012 5:11 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
RayfromUSA
RayfromUSARayfromUSAvienne, Rhone-Alpes France86 Threads 29 Polls 6,611 Posts
It should not come as a surprise to anyone that the collapse of the US economy results inevitably in a collapse of the US hegemony.

It's automatic.
Weapons, soldiers, military officers, politicians, and all the other instruments of world power are but commodities.
They are bought and sold.
And they go to the highest bidder.

Rich countries will inevitably gain world power.
And poor countries will inevitably lose it.

And the US is now the brokest nation on earth.
It lives only by Chinese charity.

China can buy the US government and military.
In fact it already has.

Don't imagine a coming showdown between the US and China.
Instead, watch for China and the US to form a coalition intended to disarm the last remaining independent nations and bring them under globalist control.
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Aug 5, 2012 8:25 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
youretheboss
yourethebossyourethebossMurarrie, Queensland Australia1 Threads 100 Posts
Well that went downhill rather quickly. laugh
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Aug 5, 2012 9:16 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Albertaghost
AlbertaghostAlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada76 Threads 5 Polls 5,914 Posts
RayfromUSA: Nothing complicated about it at all.

It's the same old standard "regime change" plan that the CIA always uses.

1. Create and arm a Contra-type opposition force and use it to kill a
lot of civilians and soldiers.


So you contend the CIA went into Syria thirty odd years ago, mated with Syrian women and gave birth to the folks rebelling. Interesting, even for you Ray.

RayfromUSA: 3. Blame the government for the all the violence.


Once again, a new curve as the world is blaming the government of Syria, not the CIA alone.

RayfromUSA: 4. Seek to impose international sanctions that prevent the government from effectively quelling the violence.


And this unilateral action occurred when Ray?

RayfromUSA: 5. Pay or coerce some individuals to make false claims of brutality.


Another contention I would like to see proof of.

RayfromUSA: 6. Establish bases just across the border protected by foreign power thereby allowing the insurgents to raid the country from safe havens.


That's a good idea. Where are thee new bases?

RayfromUSA: 7. Use the international press to continually blame the country's government and mount pressure for the leader's replacement.


And the CIA has acted unilaterally to do this when and where?

RayfromUSA: Nothing complicated about it.
Tried and proven in Asia, South America, Africa, Europe, and just about everywhere else.


Certainly actions such as the above were at one time an option that may or may not have been used as stated however, I've yet to see any proof of that occurring here Ray.
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Aug 5, 2012 10:10 PM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
Albertaghost
AlbertaghostAlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada76 Threads 5 Polls 5,914 Posts
RayfromUSA: It should not come as a surprise to anyone that the collapse of the US economy results inevitably in a collapse of the US hegemony.

It's automatic.
Weapons, soldiers, military officers, politicians, and all the other instruments of world power are but commodities.
They are bought and sold.
And they go to the highest bidder.

Rich countries will inevitably gain world power.
And poor countries will inevitably lose it.

And the US is now the brokest nation on earth.
It lives only by Chinese charity.

China can buy the US government and military.
In fact it already has.


Wow Ray. You fail math in school? The US owes China a trillion dollars. It's GDP is fifteen trillion. That's like saying a guy who makes a hundred thousand a year is owned by the bank when he only owes them ten grand over a period of years at a rate of one grand a year.



RayfromUSA: Don't imagine a coming showdown between the US and China.
Instead, watch for China and the US to form a coalition intended to disarm the last remaining independent nations and bring them under globalist control.


Do you think China is controlled by the Joos Ray? rolling on the floor laughing
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Aug 6, 2012 4:43 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
RayfromUSA: Oops, In my post above the following Ttom text should have been erased before I hit the post button. My bad.

Not one word of this foolishness should be attributed to me.
I say this. Assad is just mouth piece taking orders from Moscow. He takes some small act of rebellion then harshly supresses them. Then a small revolt begins. This 16 months ago.

Then continuing to supress the Sunni, Assad forces have some atrocities and a real civil war begins. Russian and China block the UN
resolutions. Iran and Russia rush in support units to Assad. Then this thing really heats up. Turkey has a F-$ shot down. NATO is advised vote to support Turkey. Both side move units to the border.

Kofi Annan UN peace plan for peace is removed and it seems a hopeless situation. Now Russia/China/Iran move naval forces into the area.

First question. How can Naval Forces determine the outcome of a land civil war in Syria? They cannot. Warship are about as much help in Syria's civil war as horse calvary with drawn sabers charge.

Second question. What do Russia and China get with Assad staying power?
Syria is a 1000 miles from Russia and 5000 miles from China. Sure Russia get a MED port, Tarsus to use. But Russia has resupply vessels that can refuel and rearm the Russia MED flottila at sea.

The MED has never been what I would call a region of influence for the Chinese. Why do either really care about Assad, other than he is a major buyer of weapons. Even if the Sunni win, they can get weapons sales with the new regime. They will in Egypt.

Third question. Would Iran commit major forces into Syria's Civil war?
I mean 200,000 or more. Assad is really man short. He has equipment.
But not the man power to use it. If Assad is asking Russia for weapons....eg....tanks....personnel carrier ....I bet he is also asking Iran for major deployment of manpower.

But with all these naval deployments....there is more going on here.
Ship in a land war are about useful as .....well a Calvary charge on water.


So ))....you think that Syria is going to lead to WWIII and then to a China/US colaition to dominate the remaining world.....as you posted in another thread.....and that is not foolishness?

Ray.....Syria is not that big a deal on the global scene to warrant WWIII. What it is Russia using Assad to gain a region presence. Big deal. Russia can have all of Syria for all I care.

For Iran. Syria is a way to promote radical revolutionary Islam. Again big deal. Revolutionary Islam just seems to get a lot of Muslims killed, if you have not noticed.

There are two reasons to this. You cannot deny either.

1) If Russia moves from Syria into Israel. Russia is nuclear toast. Not even Putin is that foolish.

2) If Iran does get a ICBM with a nuc, it has to get thru the upgraded Isreali Iron Shield to reach the Israeli cities. Then Iran is nuclear toast. Not even combined intelligence of Khatenie and Amhmenajada is that foolish.

Israel with its nuclear tri.....of air, sub, missile.....is going to keep this WWIII scenario from happening. It worked for the cold war.....
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Aug 6, 2012 4:53 AM CST Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated.
ttom500
ttom500ttom500St. Cloud, Florida USA30 Threads 5 Polls 10,523 Posts
By the way.....last night in southern Turkey.....there was a blast that knocked out the Iraqi pipeline that take crude to the MED. As this blogger predicted several weeks ago the southern Turkish pipeline would become a target in this Syrian mess.

In three days time.......at the local pump prices in the US have gone from $3.22 to $3.45.

That is your reason for Syria......to maintain the high price of crude to Europe and to keep instability in the oil market......for Russia and Iran.

The PPK is taking responsibility for the attack......
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