Syria. Things are, and, will get more compicated. ( Archived) (73)

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan came back from his NATO meeting and all he got was a condemnation of Syria. So, to show he’s doing something about the problem Turkey deployed anti-aircraft guns June 27 along the border with Syria.

I believe it is intended to simply compensate for what is perceived as a non-response but makes the Syrian regime appear strong.

What is interesting is that those who support the insurgency such as the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar didn’t jump on board to take action but seem intent on placing the rebels asses on the line with just enough support to keep them fighting. Turkey in turn also seems to be pushing for the MB to take part while SA is thought to be inserting Salafist fighters into Syria hoping to cut the MB off. To make it even more confusing the US wary of holy fighters is trying to stop this process and wanting no part seems to be happy providing minimal support for the rebels and Saudi fighters and keeps the main focus on negotiations with Russia and Iran (hence why they didn't jump aboard Erdogan's train at the NATO meeting.)

So we know now that Syria has a fairly good air defense network and that Russia and Iran will do whatever it takes to see the regime through.
The defections that some are placing weight on are from lower ranking Sunnis rather than the Alawite who control the military as well as the entire intelligence and secret police and much of the Sunni numbers in the army are still loyal to the regime. Of particular interest is the Air Force pilots are mostly Sunni while those in the army who pilot the attack helicopters are Alawites hence, those who are taking direct part in putting down the rebellion are part and parcel to the regime itself.
From Stratfor;

“”But if other defections among minorities occurred in addition to large-scale Sunni defections, the military's core could also be threatened. At that point, key figures within the regime, especially senior Sunni figures and Alawites outside the al Assad clan, would need to be monitored for signs that they were ready to turn on the al Assad family. “”

'Syrian opposition ready to secure chemical weapons'

""FSA general tells 'Daily Telegraph' rebels are forming a team to take hold of Assad's chemical weapons sites; senior Syrian military defector tells Reuters Assad's forces moving chemical stockpile across country.

"We have a group just to deal with chemical weapons," General Adnan Silou told the Telegraph.

He went on to describe two chemical weapons sites, one in east Damascus and another near Homs, according to the report.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak revealed Friday that Israel is preparing for a possible military intervention in Syria in case Damascus hands its missiles or chemical weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.""

To further complicate matters "Syrian rebels will attack the Russian naval base at Tartus if Moscow continues to send weapons to President Bashar al Assad's regime, rebel sources said, the Daily Telegraph reported July 26. Sources inside the regime have alerted rebels to the arrival of another weapons shipment within two weeks and if the shipment arrives, rebels will attack, a source within the Free Syrian Army said. Many rebels worked in the port of Tartus and know it well, another Free Syrian Army source said."

Stratfor

I just found 2 articles in the FAZ and translated them. They actually have conflicting reports. See below:

13th July 2012: Das Massaker von Hula ist ein Wendepunkt im syrischen Konflikt. Die westliche Öffentlichkeit beschuldigt, gestützt auf die UN-Beobachter, die syrische Armee. Diese Version kann auf Grundlage von Augenzeugenberichten bezweifelt werden. Demnach wurden die Zivilisten von sunnitischen Aufständischen getötet.
The massacre of Hula is a turning point in the Syrian conflict. The western public accused, supported by UN-observer, the Syrian army. This version can be questioned because of eye witness reports. From that the civilians were killed by Sunnites revolters.


16th July 2012: Die Informationspolitik der Bundesregierung, welche Kenntnisse sie über das Massaker im syrischen Hula vom 25. Mai sie habe, ist aus den Reihen der Linksfraktion heftig kritisiert worden. Die Abgeordnete Sevim Dagdelen bemängelte, einerseits wiederhole die Bundesregierung die Auffassung einer internationalen Untersuchungskommission, „regimenahe Kräfte“ - also dem syrischen Präsidenten Assad nahestehende Milizen - seien für ein Großteil der Opfer „verantwortlich“. Andererseits äußere sie auf Fragen nach Details der Umstände des Massakers, sie verfüge nicht über „belastbare Informationen“.
TD Sevim Dagdelen critised that the German Government repeats on the one hand the view of an international investigate commission that militia close to the Syrian president are responsible for the biggest part of the victims. On the other hand when ask after details about the circumstances of the massacre they said they don’t have resilient information.

Die Abgeordnete bezog sich auf Antworten des Auswärtigen Amtes auf eine parlamentarische Anfrage. In der Antwort der Bundesregierung heißt es: „Nach Auffassung der Bundesregierung geht die primäre Bedrohung der Zivilbevölkerung durch die fortgesetzte militärische Gewalt des syrischen Regimes aus.“ Über das Massaker in Hula sei sie vom Bundesnachrichtendienst im Zeitraum vom 5. bis 15. Juni mehrfach unterrichtet worden.
In the view of the German Government the primary thread to the civil population is through the continued military violence of the Syrian regime. The BND got notice about the massacre of Hula several times between 5th to 15th June.