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Credit to small business is definitely required, thats a taken cert, but it wont happen. Small business is the heart and soul and the major employers in this country and until they get going it will be very difficult for the country to come alive again.I am glad to see people recognising that busisnessmen are required, the perception of wealth may be a reason for many to hate them, but you generally wont find the real business people flaunting their wealth.... yes the wannabee developers in the last decade in their flashy bling cars, sharp suits and an attitude of destain towards everyone, they did flash the cash they had BORROWED, but they are gone and good riddance to them, they never were busisnessmen in any shape or form, but the true entrepreneurs knew that in any case. The country will be better without them, never in our lifetime will credit be so easily dished out, and that is also good news.
So where do I see Ireland, slightly different to most here.
The IMF/ECB/UK have injected 70 billion into Ireland....... well folks 70 billion wont even begin to fill the hole !.... a multiple of 4 or 5 times that will be required !
So where does that leave us? Without question Ireland WILL DEFAULT in its debt repayment, not this year or probably not in 2011, but it will default..... certain of it.
10 years is a time frame that may see Ireland begin to build slight credibility on the financial markets again, but there will be a two tier Europe with regards to finance and we will be firmly fixed to the bottom tier.
We have 2 million people paying tax in some shape or form, that will decrease massively, small business VAT take will deplete, corporation tax will increase leading to companies relocating to another base worldwide, the future is not good.
It can be cured,
dissolve the Sheanead, dissolve FAS, dissolve the IDA, dissolve the army,dissolve the HSE, dissolve public sector by 60/70%, massive restructure of welfare and get this country back to work.....
But guess what, none has the stomach to do it, so we will paddle on with half an a paddle and a hole in the bottom of our boat.... but by that time all our educated and entrepreneurial young minds will be off to somewhere where they are valued.
Dire prediction?... I'm afraid it's where I see it.
I feel it will happen as the State now owns all the Banks or has a majority stake holding in all of them.. Therefore the state sets the banking policy.. not the bankers... The very ones that screwed us in the first place