Getting rid of all the Muslims or they getting rid of all the Non Muslims ( Locked) (393)

Ref. Daniel Koehler

Isis has grown in just a few years from being a minor rebel group to one of the most successful and dangerous terror organisations ever formed.

One year on from its declaration of its territories as a caliphate, it controls vast swathes of Syria and Iraq, receives new claims of allegiance on an almost monthly basis and inspires terror attacks around the world.

But where will it be in one year’s time? Here, we ask a panel of leading authorities on conflict in the Middle East if they think Isis will have shrunk, maintained its strength – or become more powerful than ever.

Isis will not be able to hold this territory permanently, their finances are not sustaining governmental structures and they already have massive problems with hunger and disease.

Many parts of the population suffer under their occupation, although some parts of the Sunni tribes still see Isis as a better ruler than the Iraqi government for example. But this will also change as soon as Isis cannot provide for them.

Kurdish and Iraqi forces and Allied airstrikes will continue to take a toll on the fighting power of Isis. They will also concentrate more on Syria, as they can be more effective there. The only chance for Isis to survive on the long run is turning into a global terror network.

When we look a year from now in June 2016, it really depends on the leadership of both state and non-state actors. They may or may not have the same physical footprint on the ground, but it’s the virtual footprint I am very concerned about.

The virtual armies will still be active in a year, we will not lose the content that Isis and other groups like it have put out there and the availability for millennials to see that ideology and to be inspired by it will still be present.

Already we are seeing Isis as a functioning state, one where taxes are collected, laws implemented, trade flourishing albeit of course through rule by brutality and fear. They will be looking to reinforce this further.

It totally depends on what happens in terms of military efforts, but one thing that we can certainly expect is Isis becoming more international by the day – look at Chechnya, where they appear now to have an affiliate.

This time last year it was a lot easier to understand the idea of Isis, when it was focused on Syria and Iraq. But now it has spread across Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus.

I would expect it to expand next to open a franchise in Southeast Asia, so perhaps Indonesia or the Philippines. That will probably come in the next few months rather than the next year.

One thing Isis needs to do is look like it’s expanding – regardless of what happens in Syria and Iraq, it will try to continue to expand, establish new borders and project its menace further. It has to do this so it looks powerful, appealing and defiant in the face of the international coalition.

Still in business

One year from now Isis is likely to be still in business - an important question is whether will it advance further and take big cities in western Syria.

Isis will remain as we know it today for at least a year. Depending on how the strategy to fight it improves over the coming months, it is likely to shrink in some areas, especially in those bordering committed local forces such as near the Kurdish and Shia areas in Iraq.

But it is likely to expand in other areas, especially in central and southern Syria. By the end of year, the group will probably keep its size and strength but not in the current form.

Unlikely to implode like al-Qaeda

Organisations like Isis tend to become too extreme and brutal, even for those who see their cause as valid. This has happened in Iraq in the past, when the Awakening Councils essentially almost destroyed al-Qaeda.

But the difference between then and today is that there are no US troops to support such an Awakening, nor is the Iraqi government stable enough to push such a turnaround.

It seems that we have now gone a year and Isis is getting stronger and is still being supported both domestically and internationally by a steady flow of fighters only too willing to give up their lives for the cause.

Unless the group makes a massive mistake in terms of pushing the populations it targets too far with their tactics and strict interpretation of Sharia law, it would seem that the group may still be with us well into 2016.