I was Right! ( Archived) (25)

Jun 4, 2008 8:38 AM CST I was Right!
As I predicted in early May in this thread:



The price of crude oil is starting to drop. Just look at what is happening around the world.

Airlines grounding fuel inefficient planes and cutting back routes. good thing

Truck plants shutting down. good thing

People seriously curtailing needless driving and trips. good thing

Car dealerships with their lots full of SUV's and trucks they can't sell. good thing

Poorly managed trucking co's going out of business. good thing

Farmers who can't afford to plant or harvest crops. bad thing

Food prices and everything that is transported by truck, train or ship going through the roof. bad thing

Starvation and food riots in many 3rd world countries. bad thing

Scammers coming out of the woodwork with gimmicks to sell to ignorant people which they claim will let you run your car on water and other hairbrained schemes. bad thing

Is there any wonder that this situation can't possibly continue? Sooner or later we reach a tipping point where consumers adapt to the new reality and the demand for crude oil goes down. This is happening right now. Once this new trend of falling prices takes hold it will be very difficult to stop. Just like it was difficult to stop run away rising fuel prices.

What to do and what not to do.

To do:

Keep up the effort of conserving fuel in any way possible. It's a case of pay a little now or pay a lot later.

To not do:

Drill new oil wells and suck the last drop of oil out of the ground. This will only be a temporory solution. People will adapt to a glut of oil and start being pigs again and when this final glut is burned up there wont be anything left to fight over and future generations will have a much less prosperous world to live in.
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Jun 4, 2008 8:52 AM CST I was Right!
agman
agmanagmanEagle, Idaho USA3,145 Posts
These are changing times. The gas engine is going down.
and I suspect massive world war is on the horizon.
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Jun 4, 2008 9:01 AM CST I was Right!
Scottishlass
ScottishlassScottishlassKnoxville, Tennessee USA491 Threads 23 Polls 3,324 Posts
agman: These are changing times. The gas engine is going down.
and I suspect massive world war is on the horizon.
and that is a really scary thought, but I can't help but feel you may be right!!!!
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Jun 4, 2008 9:03 AM CST I was Right!
alabamabebe
alabamabebealabamabebeBanks of the Warrior River, Alabama USA66 Threads 3 Polls 4,404 Posts
agman: These are changing times. The gas engine is going down.
and I suspect massive world war is on the horizon.
Wow, what an optimist way to start the day.

Don't see what one has to do with the other. We will adapt, we will survive. That's what humans do.
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Jun 4, 2008 9:09 AM CST I was Right!
agman
agmanagmanEagle, Idaho USA3,145 Posts
alabamabebe: Wow, what an optimist way to start the day.

Don't see what one has to do with the other. We will adapt, we will survive. That's what humans do.


When Japan attack Pearl Harbor it was over oil. I am pretty sure
US envolvement in Iraq is over oil. The question is will Russia and
China not go to war when oil becomes needed.
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Jun 4, 2008 9:33 AM CST I was Right!
lint874
lint874lint874Leeds, West Yorkshire, England UK3 Threads 1 Polls 414 Posts
Don't underestimate the ability of the human species to invent and innovate.

In 60 years time we'll be driving around in cars powered by vegetable oil or methanol.

This means that over time, the value of arable land will go up and up.

A patch of land about 100 yards by 100 yards would be big enough for me to grow enough fuel to keep my car and house going all year.

I'm not frightened of oil running out.

Sure, fuel will get more expensive, but life will go on.
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Jun 4, 2008 9:40 AM CST I was Right!
lint874
lint874lint874Leeds, West Yorkshire, England UK3 Threads 1 Polls 414 Posts
I predict that within the next 100 years, at least 1 nuclear bomb will be exploded in at least 1 major city somewhere in the world.

Once something's invented you can't uninvent it.

Maybe it will be from terrorist attack - in which case it will be almost impossible to predict when and where this will happen.

Maybe from war. A nuclear war is not likely to happen in the near future. There's not enough political friction between the nations with nuclear arsenals.
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Jun 4, 2008 11:02 AM CST I was Right!
agman: These are changing times. The gas engine is going down.
and I suspect massive world war is on the horizon.
gas Engine Going Down????
With all the Hydrogen that can be produced??
GOT to be JOKING!!!rolling on the floor laughing laugh grin
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Jun 4, 2008 11:19 AM CST I was Right!
shipoker55
shipoker55shipoker55St. Petersburg, Florida USA211 Threads 2 Polls 9,362 Posts
yes, we are seeing a lowering of oil prices. But I think it is temporary. much about the coming U S elections and the uncertainty of who the next leader will be. After the elections, I believe the prices will again rise. Because whether McCain or the other guy wins, they will do nothing"....and the beat goes on...yes the beat goes on
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Jun 4, 2008 12:10 PM CST I was Right!
shipoker55: yes, we are seeing a lowering of oil prices. But I think it is temporary. much about the coming U S elections and the uncertainty of who the next leader will be. After the elections, I believe the prices will again rise. Because whether McCain or the other guy wins, they will do nothing"....and the beat goes on...yes the beat goes on


Ship, you're thinking too regeonally. The demand from China and India has a way bigger impact on the price of a barrel of crude than our election. Bush met with king Fiesel in Saudi Arabia trying to get them to increase production or drop the price and it had no effect. The price of crude oil can't be controlled by any one man, company, country or government because it's a global market. Why should any oil producing country lower their prices or increase production to please one country when there are other countries who will buy their oil at the prevailing price. The days of our political meanderings having a dramatic effect around the world are probably over.
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Jun 4, 2008 1:11 PM CST I was Right!
The internal conbustion engine (gas, diesel propane etc) are truly wonderful things for being able to transport people and cargo over long distances fast, safe and comfortably. They owe their success to being able to carry on board a fuel source which is comparatively small and light and contains a tremendous amount of energy. The electric car on the other hand suffers from having to use a fuel source which is heavy, bulky, and very expensive to make and replace. Namely batteries. Advances in battery technology has made them lighter by using lighter materials other than lead, safer by eliminating sulfuric acid, and more efficient by having them transfer power at higher amperage levels. The problem with batteries though is that they don't last more than a few years and are very expensive to replace.

There is another technology that has been very well sorted out since the 70's based on a concept which goes back 100's of years. Namely the Flywheel. Very few people outside of the technical world are familiar with flywheel power as a viable electrical storage system. I'm not talking about those little toy cars that you push and they seem to have a mind of their own or huge 1000 lb cast iron wheels you see on old farm tractors. The modern flywheel storage unit uses lightweight composite materials like carbon fiber and kevlar and spins at up to 80,000 rpm, is housed in a near perfect vacuum and uses magnetic bearings. Nothing touches anything else so nothing can wear out.

Flywheel electric storage can make the battery powered car obsolete even before it's widely accepted.
Do a google search using the terms "flywheel storage" and read til your eyeballs fall out. Here is just one article.



BTW, the New York City Transit Authority tested 2 flywheel equiped subway cars back in the early 70's with great success. They were used for months just like any other subway car and the passengers had no clue they were riding in a car which was being accelerated and braked by a flywheel instead of taking power from the 3rd rail and using brake shoes pushed against the wheels to stop.
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Jun 4, 2008 1:21 PM CST I was Right!
moonfoxinthesnow
moonfoxinthesnowmoonfoxinthesnowALBUQUERQUE, New Mexico USA9 Threads 347 Posts
ohhhh PAHLEEEEEZZZZEEEE!!!!! I have friends that have made generators AND engines that run off of the earths gravity... of course they float but I'm sure we can work with that... they've just been put out of commission because they oil guys want their proffit.. problem is the oil guys are about to loose their power.

its the way the world spins guys... so if I were you start investing in alternative energy sources that are cheep and reliable!
cheers applause peace
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Jun 4, 2008 1:22 PM CST I was Right!
Jonner
JonnerJonnerSligo, Ireland4 Threads 1 Polls 52 Posts
agman: These are changing times. The gas engine is going down.
and I suspect massive world war is on the horizon.


Yes i agree, ive predicted a world war in next 10 years, its almost inevitable the ways things are going, war will start in Middle East
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Jun 4, 2008 1:24 PM CST I was Right!
Jonner
JonnerJonnerSligo, Ireland4 Threads 1 Polls 52 Posts
Jonner: Yes i agree, ive predicted a world war in next 10 years, its almost inevitable the ways things are going, war will start in Middle East


Likely to be a lot sooner than 10 years
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Jun 4, 2008 6:46 PM CST I was Right!
tampa1
tampa1tampa1London, Ontario Canada56 Threads 3,057 Posts
Well. When I can can put something other than gasoline in my automoble I will gladly do it. But at this point there is nothing else to power it with. Everyone sits around and complains about fosil fuel use, yet where are all the bright ideas? There is no magic bullet here folks, hydrogen is a viable option, but demands massive amounts of electricity to produce. We make that by burning coal which of course another fosil fuel.

If we want cheaper oil, the only way to achieve it is to flood the market with oil thus lowering the demand and the price.

I do think that alot of this stuff will at some point level out to sane levels, but it's not going to happen over night. I remember the 70's oil crisis, like that this too will pass.
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Jun 4, 2008 7:36 PM CST I was Right!
munch
munchmunchT town, Oklahoma USA1 Threads 207 Posts
I have a few friends developig magnetic resistance motors, some working on kit car electrics (4 wheels but no crash testing required).

I think that's the future, that's how we'll overcome greed.

No visible, counterable front but one at a time, grassroots, friends.
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Jun 6, 2008 1:35 PM CST I was Right!
shipoker55
shipoker55shipoker55St. Petersburg, Florida USA211 Threads 2 Polls 9,362 Posts
sorry, Ooby,

Oil prices jumped over $10 in one day, today. The highest one day increase ever.
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Jun 6, 2008 2:34 PM CST I was Right!
tampa1
tampa1tampa1London, Ontario Canada56 Threads 3,057 Posts
I can't help but think there are a bunch of skunks buying up all the oil futures and artificially driving the price up. $10 in one day? Something has to be going on.
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Jun 6, 2008 3:49 PM CST I was Right!
Emanuellla
EmanuelllaEmanuelllaeastern europe, Moldova23 Threads 1,505 Posts
ooby_dooby: As I predicted in early May in this thread:



The price of crude oil is starting to drop. Just look at what is happening around the world.

Airlines grounding fuel inefficient planes and cutting back routes. good thing

Truck plants shutting down. good thing

People seriously curtailing needless driving and trips. good thing

Car dealerships with their lots full of SUV's and trucks they can't sell. good thing

Poorly managed trucking co's going out of business. good thing

Farmers who can't afford to plant or harvest crops. bad thing

Food prices and everything that is transported by truck, train or ship going through the roof. bad thing

Starvation and food riots in many 3rd world countries. bad thing

Scammers coming out of the woodwork with gimmicks to sell to ignorant people which they claim will let you run your car on water and other hairbrained schemes. bad thing

Is there any wonder that this situation can't possibly continue? Sooner or later we reach a tipping point where consumers adapt to the new reality and the demand for crude oil goes down. This is happening right now. Once this new trend of falling prices takes hold it will be very difficult to stop. Just like it was difficult to stop run away rising fuel prices.

What to do and what not to do.

To do :

Keep up the effort of conserving fuel in any way possible. It's a case of pay a little now or pay a lot later.

To not do:

Drill new oil wells and suck the last drop of oil out of the ground. This will only be a temporory solution. People will adapt to a glut of oil and start being pigs again and when this final glut is burned up there wont be anything left to fight over and future generations will have a much less prosperous world to live in.


yes, u were right...u're the 2nd nostradamuslaugh laugh
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Jun 6, 2008 8:56 PM CST I was Right!
Emanuellla: yes, u were right...u're the 2nd nostradamus


Ouch! help

dunno confused

Oil speculators must have read my post and said, "Lets have some fun with this blowhard." rolling on the floor laughing
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