PESTILENCESSEPTEMBER 24, 2014 POSTED BY THEA
CDC and WHO warn of 1.4 million Ebola cases by January
Ebola-story
The number of Ebola cases in west Africa could surpass 1.4 million by January and the disease could become endemic, scientists warned in two separate reports published on Tuesday.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) said that, unless “drastic improvements in control measures” were made, the number of cases – currently 5,800 – could nearly quadruple to 21,000 by the end of next month.
Christopher Dye, the head of strategy at the WHO and a co-author of the study, said: “We’ve rather modestly only extended the projections to Nov 2, but if you go to…Jan 2, you’re into hundreds of thousands.”
He said it was feared that the virus, which has killed more than 2,800 people this year in the deadliest outbreak in history, could become a “permanent feature of the human population”.
The epidemic might simply “rumble on as it has for the last few months for the next few years”, he added.
The research by the UN-funded agency also found that the death rate for the current outbreak may be higher than previously calculated – closer to 70 per cent instead of 55 per cent. So far Ebola has killed more than 2,800 people in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.
The WHO study echoed a “worst-case scenario” report from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. It warned that, without significant increases in international efforts to stem the spread of the virus, it could infect hundreds of thousands in the next three months, leaving 1.4 million sick by January.
According to some research models, however, that’s not even the tip of the iceberg. Should the virus make its way outside of Africa and spread at a similar rate then it is possible that it would eventually make its way to all corners of the globe. This potential for an Ebola-based global pandemic has set into motion a number of different responses from officials at the World Health Organization, African governments, and western nations.
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But Doctors Without Borders, the organization that spearheaded the treatment and containment efforts at the beginning of the crisis when governments were completely ignoring it, says that WHO’s efforts are destined to fail:
One of the main organizations involved in fighting the outbreak, Doctors Without Borders, is dubious about the new effort and has decided not to take part. Brice de le Vigne, the group’s director of operations, warned that the proposed community care centers could worsen the situation.
“This is not going to work,” he said. “To move people in an epidemic is a big responsibility, and it requires huge logistical capabilities” that the affected countries simply don’t have.
To be effective, he said, these care centers need to have strict infection control, adequate supplies, trained staff, regular supervision, the ability to diagnose and refer patients, and proper burial methods. Otherwise, they could turn into “contamination centers,” he said.
Just because we have a more advanced medical system and better living conditions does not mean that we will be able to stop the spread of this virus.
In fact, some medical professionals are already warning that we are not prepared for an Ebola pandemic.
At this point we don’t know how this epidemic will develop, but we do know that Jesus warned us of “pestilenses”as one of the signs preceeding His second coming, adding that “all these are the beginning of sorrows.” However, He also told us that “These things I have spoken unto you, that in me ye might have peace.”
So it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening but not look at these events with fear in our hearts, knowing that our Good Shepherd is in control of what’s happening and will take care of us.
(Psalm 91:1-7)
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