"The Greatest Depression" (237)

A Opt In

A Dark Winter or A Dark Future?
By : Thomas H. Webb
10 December 2020

Perhaps some of the more honest and accurate words of President elect Biden….is this idea of a dark winter. With COVID spiking here and abroad. Such is certainly for a dark winter. But if you cannot see the pain on a California restaurateur's face and in her words of the lockdowns effect on her and her staff. Then you are pretty hard hearted. This pain in our business community is also part of the dark winter. For if our small business evaporates, this country is in for a dark future.

There has to be a way to balance out the two goals. To flat line the COVID 3rd wave of infections without ending our small businesses and the employment that they bring.

I know many much wiser, studied and learned in pandemics have been attempting this very thing.But I have done some research into the Spanish Flu of 1918-20. They actually grew the economy during that 3 years of pandemic.

Here is a quote from



“The Spanish flu left almost no discernible mark on the aggregate US economy. The coronavirus arrived to the US at a time of booming stock market values. By contrast, the influenza outbreak in the spring of 1918 occurred right after a downturn: the Dow Jones Industrial Average had actually declined 21.7% in 1917. “

Somehow our forefathers found a balance here.

The article goes on to say that in the 1918-20 stock market…. the market actually rose.

But the main reason the economy stayed solid in the Spanish flu is this.

“Notwithstanding, these social distancing measures did not come close to those implemented in the US today. Work in factories, mines, and shipyards continued, despite at least some of this work facilitating the spread of the disease. Why? Because businesses were under pressure by the US government to fulfill demand for products and commodities that were needed for the war effort. Which brings us to the main reason why the US economy did not massively contract in 1918: WWI.”

They had troops in the trenches of Europe and they were not going to stop war production for a pandemic. In summary the article says this.

“What lessons can we glean from the 1918 pandemic for today? Obviously, we are not advocating for another war, or that workers be encouraged to work in unsafe conditions that may heighten their exposure to the virus. But it is useful to remember that a global pandemic doesn’t inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression. More specifically, a large expansion in government demand can go a long way in softening the economic impact of a crisis that clearly threatens to reduce consumption and private investment.”

Government demand. Is the key here.

Government demand does not necessarily mean more budget for the department of defense. Government demand is a better economic stimulation than government bailouts and loans. But it can.The reason?

When the government buys things, a ripple effect is made in the logistic chain. Every supplier is being stimulated along the logistics and production chain of the product.

Right now? Governments and their agencies should be buying new fleets of cars and trucks. Even planes and ships. They should be opening new office complexes with new computers, furnishings, and powered with green energy. They should be keeping schools open. That is all demand buying by the government.

But still because much of government demand buy are done by the major corporation,
American small business is not going to realize the stimulation that larger firms will.

Unless…….

New laws on small business and minority business participation in those major corporation buys is done. Let me give you an example.

end part 1