MSM reporting of US COVID-19 mortality rate: An exercise in 'How to Lie with Statistics'

A book published 66 years ago and still in print is an essential reference for understanding most of the data that you see about the pandemic afflicting the world today. Written by Darrell Huff and illustrated by Irving Geis, How to Lie With Statistics is both sardonic and a serious lesson in the abuse of math for propaganda. Whether or not it was studied by our Trump-hating media anxious to make the U.S. look bad, some of its lessons are being employed.

A few days ago, we learned that the mortality rate from the coronavirus is lower than touted by the "experts." Much lower. As in, similar to the season flu.

Now, thanks (again) to Matt Margolis at PJ Media, we see that the United States has a comparatively low mortality rate. But downstate New York has the worst.

Curiously, when the media hounded Trump for weeks about testing, they kept screaming about "per capita" testing rates compared to South Korea. But now you hear not a word about "per capita" rates when it comes to mortality.

Why?


Because the hard numbers make the United States look as though it's fared much worse than the rest of the world. That's because idiots in the mainstream media lack the skill or the will to apply basic math. As Margolis notes, it's quite easy to see that we've done an incredible job.

The first list uses data from May 24 and shows total deaths of the ten hardest-hit countries. As you can see, using raw numbers, the United States appears to have fared the worst as countries are ranked in descending order.

1.USA (96,046)

2.UK (36,757)

3.Italy (32,735)

4.Spain (28.678)

5.France (28,218)

6.Brazil (22,013)

7.Belgium (9,280)

8.Germany (8,275)

9.Iran (7,417)

10.Netherlands (5,841)


But when Margolis adjusts the numbers to reflect per capita rates, the death rate per million people changes dramatically, as noted below. You can see that we drop way down on the list.

1.Belgium (791.76)

2.Spain (573.38)

3.UK (558.95)

4.Italy (524.58)

5.France (415.90)

6.Sweden (391.87)

7.Netherlands (338.01)

8.Ireland (309.86)

9.USA (288.74)

10.Switzerland (226.80)


Then Margolis does one final calculation.

Because our numbers are distorted thanks to Cuomo's and de Blasio's incompetent "leadership," downstate New York has a disproportionate number of deaths compared to anywhere else in the country. So Margolis recalculated the list by removing the numbers from downstate New York and making it like a separate country. Here's how that turned out. As you can see, downstate New York is worse than any European country, and the United States mortality rate drops.

1.Downstate NY (1,771.86)

2.Belgium (791.76)

3.Spain (573.38)

4.UK (558.95)

5.Italy (524.58)

6.France (415.90)

7.Sweden (391.87)

8.Netherlands (338.01)

9.Ireland (309.86)

10.USA sans downstate NY (233.44)


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Comments (23)

You must think covid is retreating in the US , US just gone 6 figures , it will go 7 soon enough . Death numbers did not start rising till the end of March , 100000 thousand more or less in the time since . Lucky if it does not make eight figures .
you can only hope Epirb. more air for you
You had to read a book to tell apart gross from per capita mortality? Gimme a break!
I'm a realist Crypto , I follow figures . This is not a left or right issue , its a life and death one . Covid will not leave one or the other group alone .
duh. the fact is we don't know ANYTHING. there still seems to be a segment that only see the glass empty
I just feel better after I got that off my chest. grin
Just another form of Cherry-picking. USA (DT) boasts of its amazing record-making testing regime. The increase in tests compared to other countries should have the affect of lowering the mortality rate (deaths per confirmed test), not of exaggerating it. The Death/Test ratio is what it is, and varies hugely because the testing rate likewise varies hugely. 7% (which is about where USA is running) is yes, very high, not the highest. Compare with Australia, adjust if you wish per-capita, and the two stories are indeed very different. So to is the daily case curve. I suggest the slow decay rate of USA reflects the lack of cooperation, and the insistence on rights and freedom, come what may.

The test selection criteria may be quite different ; Australia is reporting less than 1/1000 confirmations.
!!!! that jus goes to show rapha , them blacks should vote for Trump according to Biden it makes em white
^^^^
rolling on the floor laughing

cowboy
I think blacks would like to make their own decision about voting and couldnt care less what some Republican white man like David Duke says about Biden.
^^^^
Okaayyy ...
Now, how about what The Young Turks(!) Reveal about Biden ...

hmmm
See also Comments on The Young Turks' Revelations very mad

cowboy
Note also --
The Young Turks presentation was made a couple Months ago -- Well Before Joe's "You Ain't Black" gaffe foot in mouth

cowboy
Finally some wisdom from you e. thumbs up thumbs up

Covid-19 hit the coasts first, because that's where the occupants of the countries, that were hit first traveled to.
Unfortunately, it's just getting started here in the USA. We will likely see it hit more interior locations in the future, unless an effective available vaccine becomes available. We may also see the rates go up in areas that were already hit, due to a rush to end the lockdowns. IF everyone socially distanced and wore an effective mask, it would have less of an impact. But some refuse to do so and thus a new wave will likely be started.
I always write wisdom Jimmy , this time you agree with it . I agree that this has hardly started . Its a great pity that lockdown was not done properly US wide . Too late to return to it . Hard to watch your leaders fighting over it, lockdown's do work if done right . Ours have bought us time till a vaccine becomes available , I fear thats not going to happen , no one has produced a cure for the common cold .
they want us to die but im not taking the bait
no one wants you dead , but a few would use your death for political reasons


hmmm

cowboy
I know what the figures tell me and its bad , when covid reachs full satuation of a population we will know the true death rate . Fark living in Belgium .


wow
@ 2:20 --
With This going in Murkun population centers coast to coast & border to border ...

THAT oughta do it, wouldn't you say ep?
I reckon we'll know the True Death Rate by When? ... Maybe 4th of July? dunno
Labor Day?? dunno

violin

cowboy
August 28 March On Washington wow

professor
Pandemic Spreading 101
1) Have a million or so Murkuns converge in one place.
2) Have 'em go back where they came from.

frustrated

cowboy
I reckon we'll know the True Death Rate by When? ... Maybe 4th of July? dunno
Labor Day??

not for a couple of years . It won't be untill there's complete satuation , thats a long way off . The chinese know how bad covid is , they don't care usually how many die but with this they lock them down hard . Currently 200 million are locked down compared to the first outbreak of 49 million , speaks volume's .
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Willy3411

Willy3411

Lawton, Oklahoma, USA

Retired old guy. Loves sports, music, and karaoke. Not shy about singing.Love to travel. Love to go to beaches and warm weather outdoor events. U.S. Air Force Veteran. I am here for the blogs. I am an amputee. My lower leg is gone.

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