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MSM reporting of US COVID-19 mortality rate: An exercise in 'How to Lie with Statistics'

A book published 66 years ago and still in print is an essential reference for understanding most of the data that you see about the pandemic afflicting the world today. Written by Darrell Huff and illustrated by Irving Geis, How to Lie With Statistics is both sardonic and a serious lesson in the abuse of math for propaganda. Whether or not it was studied by our Trump-hating media anxious to make the U.S. look bad, some of its lessons are being employed.

A few days ago, we learned that the mortality rate from the coronavirus is lower than touted by the "experts." Much lower. As in, similar to the season flu.

Now, thanks (again) to Matt Margolis at PJ Media, we see that the United States has a comparatively low mortality rate. But downstate New York has the worst.

Curiously, when the media hounded Trump for weeks about testing, they kept screaming about "per capita" testing rates compared to South Korea. But now you hear not a word about "per capita" rates when it comes to mortality.


Because the hard numbers make the United States look as though it's fared much worse than the rest of the world. That's because idiots in the mainstream media lack the skill or the will to apply basic math. As Margolis notes, it's quite easy to see that we've done an incredible job.

The first list uses data from May 24 and shows total deaths of the ten hardest-hit countries. As you can see, using raw numbers, the United States appears to have fared the worst as countries are ranked in descending order.

1.USA (96,046)

2.UK (36,757)

3.Italy (32,735)

4.Spain (28.678)

5.France (28,218)

6.Brazil (22,013)

7.Belgium (9,280)

8.Germany (8,275)

9.Iran (7,417)

10.Netherlands (5,841)

But when Margolis adjusts the numbers to reflect per capita rates, the death rate per million people changes dramatically, as noted below. You can see that we drop way down on the list.

1.Belgium (791.76)

2.Spain (573.38)

3.UK (558.95)

4.Italy (524.58)

5.France (415.90)

6.Sweden (391.87)

7.Netherlands (338.01)

8.Ireland (309.86)

9.USA (288.74)

10.Switzerland (226.80)

Then Margolis does one final calculation.

Because our numbers are distorted thanks to Cuomo's and de Blasio's incompetent "leadership," downstate New York has a disproportionate number of deaths compared to anywhere else in the country. So Margolis recalculated the list by removing the numbers from downstate New York and making it like a separate country. Here's how that turned out. As you can see, downstate New York is worse than any European country, and the United States mortality rate drops.

1.Downstate NY (1,771.86)

2.Belgium (791.76)

3.Spain (573.38)

4.UK (558.95)

5.Italy (524.58)

6.France (415.90)

7.Sweden (391.87)

8.Netherlands (338.01)

9.Ireland (309.86)

10.USA sans downstate NY (233.44)

Read more:

Comments (32)

You must think covid is retreating in the US , US just gone 6 figures , it will go 7 soon enough . Death numbers did not start rising till the end of March , 100000 thousand more or less in the time since . Lucky if it does not make eight figures .
you can only hope Epirb. more air for you
You had to read a book to tell apart gross from per capita mortality? Gimme a break!
I'm a realist Crypto , I follow figures . This is not a left or right issue , its a life and death one . Covid will not leave one or the other group alone .
Outstanding analysis!

Even to someone who lives in downstate NY. GULP...

The fake media fake science people are lying about Oxychloroquine too. It has been used safely since the 1830s to treat malaria, lupus and other diseases. It's one of the oldest drugs in use and has been tested on MILLIONS of people with a high level of safety. If it's so dangerous how come tens of thousands of doctors are prescribing it every day for TWO CENTURIES?

The fake science faked a study with the corrupt VA that gave it to people who had organ failure and were all but already dead. Then when they died they reported that the drug didn't work. IT WAS FAKE NEWS.

Thousands of doctors report that they are using it successfully and safely to treat patients with the Chinese virus BEFORE THEY NEED TO BE ADMITTED TO THE HOSPITAL. But the fake Democrat news is making up lies about this drug just to try to make President Trump look bad. What a bunch of cocksucking a**hole! They are MURDERING people.
duh. the fact is we don't know ANYTHING. there still seems to be a segment that only see the glass empty
"There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics."
-- Anonymous

Mr. Margolis performed an excellent analysis.

Anyone who knows the slightest thing about statistics understands that it is the second group of numbers he provides (per capita rates) that is much more meaningful with respect to how a country is doing on the virus. And as you can see, the US did an outstanding job.

But the third set of numbers... separating out the phony Cumo numbers in New York is a brilliant idea!

Ássholes got *'ed and cocksucking Didn't -- Never would've guessed That.
Go figure confused

I just feel better after I got that off my chest. grin


@miclee•50 mins ago•Nyx - North Of The Straits Of, Florida USA
×In response to: What a bunch of cocksucking a**hole!

Ássholes got *'ed and cocksucking Didn't -- Never would've guessed That.
Go figure


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Good Ol' Fester!

Proving -- AGAIN -- that anyone seeing "Obvious Intelligence" is an over-educated knucklehead (And I'm recently not so sure of that "over-educated" part).

Will the Wicked Wizard of the East Coast Elitist Prlcks swoop to the defense of his Flying Monkey Imp Minion?


popcorn ... drinking

rolling on the floor laughing
Just another form of Cherry-picking. USA (DT) boasts of its amazing record-making testing regime. The increase in tests compared to other countries should have the affect of lowering the mortality rate (deaths per confirmed test), not of exaggerating it. The Death/Test ratio is what it is, and varies hugely because the testing rate likewise varies hugely. 7% (which is about where USA is running) is yes, very high, not the highest. Compare with Australia, adjust if you wish per-capita, and the two stories are indeed very different. So to is the daily case curve. I suggest the slow decay rate of USA reflects the lack of cooperation, and the insistence on rights and freedom, come what may.

The test selection criteria may be quite different ; Australia is reporting less than 1/1000 confirmations.
Factor in False Positives & Negatives ...

... and Testing provides little more objective information than a crap shoot.

Long story short -- Results can be selectively cited to "prove" whatever one wishes.

So we're back to ...
"Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics"

confused blah blah

As I implied earlier, calling the statistical analysis description brilliant and disparaging the governor was an act of poor character and supreme idiocy :

"Related: 13 Coronavirus myths busted by science

"There is a huge difference between rich dense places, where people can shelter in place, work remotely, and have all of their food and other needs delivered to them, and poor dense places, which push people out onto the streets, into stores and onto crowded transit with one another," Florida wrote on CityLab, adding "COVID-19 is hitting hardest not in uber-dense Manhattan but in the less-dense outer boroughs, like the Bronx, Queens, and even far less dense Staten Island."

Race disparities
The coronavirus is also laying bare health-care disparities that have long simmered in the U.S., predominantly those involving race.

Blacks, in particular, are seeing unequal impacts from COVID-19. Not all state and local governments are reporting racial data linked to COVID-19 cases and related deaths. But the Washington Post did an analysis of areas where data is available, finding that counties that are majority black, or African American, have three times the rate of infections and nearly six times the death rate for COVID-19 cases than counties that are majority whites. Even in areas with majority whites, blacks often make up a disproportionate number of deaths from COVID-19. For instance, The Post reported, blacks account for just 26% of the population in Wisconsin's largest city, Milwaukee County, but account for 70% of those who have died from COVID-19 in the country. A similar scenario plays out in Louisiana, the Post found, where blacks make up 32% of the population but 70% of the COVID-19-related deaths in the state."

!!!! that jus goes to show rapha , them blacks should vote for Trump according to Biden it makes em white
rolling on the floor laughing

I think blacks would like to make their own decision about voting and couldnt care less what some Republican white man like David Duke says about Biden.
Okaayyy ...
Now, how about what The Young Turks(!) Reveal about Biden ...

See also Comments on The Young Turks' Revelations very mad

Note also --
The Young Turks presentation was made a couple Months ago -- Well Before Joe's "You Ain't Black" gaffe foot in mouth

Don't worry willy.

Some states were forced to roll back their covid related death count.

CDC has updated their statistics. The original models were created with extremely outdated and heavily flawed software. The kind that might make a U.S. space craft crash and burn. Statistics could actually be as low as .26% with newer updated data and better software platforms. It has data for asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic as well. Many projections just the same as always because that's the best they can do in any year, every year.

Still nothing to close down a global economy over.

Also updated information on the Trump economy as well. It's not a surprising wonder why the demonrats need to wreck as much as they can. They've been nothing but wrecking balls for years now.
Finally some wisdom from you e. thumbs up thumbs up

Covid-19 hit the coasts first, because that's where the occupants of the countries, that were hit first traveled to.
Unfortunately, it's just getting started here in the USA. We will likely see it hit more interior locations in the future, unless an effective available vaccine becomes available. We may also see the rates go up in areas that were already hit, due to a rush to end the lockdowns. IF everyone socially distanced and wore an effective mask, it would have less of an impact. But some refuse to do so and thus a new wave will likely be started.
I always write wisdom Jimmy , this time you agree with it . I agree that this has hardly started . Its a great pity that lockdown was not done properly US wide . Too late to return to it . Hard to watch your leaders fighting over it, lockdown's do work if done right . Ours have bought us time till a vaccine becomes available , I fear thats not going to happen , no one has produced a cure for the common cold .
they want us to die but im not taking the bait
no one wants you dead , but a few would use your death for political reasons


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I know what the figures tell me and its bad , when covid reachs full satuation of a population we will know the true death rate . Fark living in Belgium .

@ 2:20 --
With This going in Murkun population centers coast to coast & border to border ...

THAT oughta do it, wouldn't you say ep?
I reckon we'll know the True Death Rate by When? ... Maybe 4th of July? dunno
Labor Day?? dunno


August 28 March On Washington wow

Pandemic Spreading 101
1) Have a million or so Murkuns converge in one place.
2) Have 'em go back where they came from.


I reckon we'll know the True Death Rate by When? ... Maybe 4th of July? dunno
Labor Day??

not for a couple of years . It won't be untill there's complete satuation , thats a long way off . The chinese know how bad covid is , they don't care usually how many die but with this they lock them down hard . Currently 200 million are locked down compared to the first outbreak of 49 million , speaks volume's .
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