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JimNastics

Harsh Reality

Today from Bloomberg;



Deaths are a lot easier to determine than infections, especially since adequate testing is unavailable and most people have not been tested. Indeed, some tests have proven to be faulty. While some areas have seen a reduction in deaths recently, other areas have seen an increase and the net this week was an increase.

It would be prudent to not ease back on social distancing for the near future, especially since we do not yet know who is infected. head banger
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Vierkaesehochonline today!

Next talk on Epidemiology.

Welcome back. Before we begin, just a bit on lecture hall decorum. At the Vierk Institute, our division for pedagogy has suggestions for seating, which several studies show contribute to a much better learning.environment. I am asking all young ladies to move closer to your director instructor, right here at the front of the hall. The males can all go to the back higher levels of the room. That's it. I may have a few suggestions on female attire at a later time as well.
I'll henceforth refer to epidemiology as Epid, to save time. Few in medicine would not agree that Epid forms the backbone of public health. The craft basically is a meld between clinical medicine, and biostatistics. In clinical nursing and medicine, the focus typically is on the individual patint. In Epid, it's on populations, of various sorts, and, specifically, on rates/proportions of disease or health indices in these populations, and of their exposures to various factors. Naming these populations, and the exposures, provides a format for better describing the field, as follows:
Broadly speaking, the craft can be understood as consisting of three sub fields, again with reference to populations. At a basic level, there is descriptive Epid, which attempts to study a population in terms of the rates of health/disease, and various exposures. Analytical Epid then attempts to understand how these are linked causally, using varioius study designs and analyses. Finally, clinical Epid applies various principles to understand and to predict how various interventions, individually, or on populations, affect health outcomes. In large part, much of the predictive work on just how to best respond to C-19 combines ideas from all three of these subfields, mostly of the last.
A listing of types of exposures and "outcomes" (illnesses/health), is one way to understand the various divisions of the field.
So, there are infectious and chronic disease branches of the field. Examples of these include the study of viruses, as now with C-19, in the former, and a focus on, say, cancers, or obesity, in the latter.. There's psychiatric Epid, to keep the beauticians of medicine busy. Epid of the workplace, of accidents, and so on. Likewise, the divisions of Epid can be cast in terms of exposures. So we have environmental, radiation, stressor, and other branches of the field. Even the best uses of health services yield to Epid study approaches.. Most recently, genetic and molecular parts of the science have become quite important.
OK, class dismissed, except for those three young ladies to my right, with high hemline skirts, deep cut tops, and the FM red high heels going. Please retreat to my office after class.
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OldeGuy

vaccines - making it happen

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Vaccine Development and Surveillance

Strategy Overview


Our Goal:

Advance public goods for global health through technological innovation. We do this by accelerating the development and commercialization of novel vaccines and the sustainable manufacture of existing vaccines, defining the global disease burden through better primary data and world-class modeling, and reducing the threat of epidemics through the development and use of innovative tools.
The Challenge

At A Glance

Tackling diseases individually won’t solve many global health challenges. Working across disease areas allows us to identify the public goods that can accelerate global health impact and reduce the threat of epidemics.

We believe technical innovation has a critical role to play in the design, development, and deployment of these public goods.

We invest in deep technical expertise and novel platforms in vaccine development and manufacturing to accelerate innovation for better, faster, and cheaper vaccines.

We also invest in building high-quality modeling and forecasting capabilities informed by trustworthy primary data. We make this information public to allow all experts to better prioritize our collective global health resources.

In global health, the focus we’ve put on fighting individual diseases has had enormous impact, yet many of the most stubborn challenges we face are shared across disease areas. Whether it’s accelerating the development of new vaccines, forecasting the global health challenges of tomorrow, or preparing for epidemics, we must work beyond the scope of one disease area and create durable public goods whose benefits permeate global health.

Vaccines are some of our most powerful tools in combating diseases. Yet despite substantial scientific advances and investment, bringing vaccines to market affordably and reliably remains a challenge. Promising candidates can fail late in development, and existing vaccines can face supply shortages, resulting in wasted time, investments, and missed opportunities to improve human health. The diseases of low-resource settings—whether they are entrenched, like malaria and HIV, or they are the next outbreak pathogen—are often some of the hardest to address scientifically. They are also often the least attractive commercially. These challenges mean vaccine development for low-resource settings will only be successful if we use innovation in technologies, platforms, processes, and business models to accelerate timelines and reduce costs.

Because developing new vaccines is a lengthy and expensive undertaking, it is particularly important that we understand how to prioritize our efforts. Some diseases lend themselves to vaccine intervention. Others, like the neglected tropical diseases, are best tackled through better deployment of existing interventions. And others, like noncommunicable diseases, require non-vaccine approaches. Unfortunately, because the quality of our primary data is so poor, it is difficult to answer questions such as how many deaths a malaria vaccine could prevent. Parents who experience the tragedy of losing a child may never know the true cause of death. The mystery behind these individual tragedies are then accumulated into a public health conundrum, making it impossible for product developers, governments, and funders to effectively prioritize the resources of global and public health.

The Opportunity

We believe we can accelerate the impact of vaccines in low-resource contexts by cultivating deep expertise in the vaccine-manufacturing process, quality control, and clinical evaluation. This expertise allows us to advise on more effective vaccine development programs and identify new areas of innovation to benefit multiple disease programs.

continued on the next page
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chatilliononline now!

Pay attention FLORIDA...

Obviously, the people in Florida are not paying attention. Every day I check the numbers for new cases of COVID-19 and the numbers were dropping. Social distancing was actually working. Was is the operative.
The numbers are on the rise. We've lost a month now. Yesterday on local news they were talking about reopening some businesses. Not if this is what is happening. On a chart by county, I look at the age groups who are most affected.

The blue and dark blue areas in the bottom (east coast) is significant to me.
Dade County (Miami area) 45-54
Broward County (Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale area) 45-64
Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach, Boca Raton area) 55-74

There are many 55 and over communities in Palm Beach County where I now live. There was a spike last Saturday, dropped for a dew days and nearly doubled at the end of the week. This is raising the overall state numbers, but the activity is concentrated in these 3 counties.

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JimNastics

Excellent update on the Covid-19 vaccine front

Today in Bloomberg;


(continued in my first comment below)
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Irishrose1949

THE NEVER ENDING UNTRUTH OF WANTS KIDS OR NOT SURE IF THEY WANT KIDS

Calling all men : when writing your profiles please beware: women 63-80 years old probably do not want kids to bore just for you. The latest on the kid issue for older women is: a 35 year old woman who wants kids is referred to in the medical profession as a "geriatric pregnancy", I am telling the truth.

Not a very complimentary comment but then life can be brutal, especially if technology or procedures to become pregnant are used.

When I read a profile about a man and he is 69 years old and wants kids, I being to wonder in what reality is he living? It is sad. Surely he must understand that for a 63 woman or older, it would a very big health risk not only for his partner but for the kid. Just because he can, does not mean he should.What about a lifetime of special needs for the kid?nothing and I mean nothing guarantees a safe, healthy baby. Please be truthful.

There are thousands of kids that should be adopted, they need a family.
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What Shi did...

Shi (that woman) may turn out to be the st up idist woman since Pandora. It is possible she may have created a human ELE. In a few thousand years at most someone will know.

What am I talking about?

Let's start with this reporter's question to US President Trump on 4/15/2020.


No what Dr. Shi did was a little worse than that. Watch the first half hour of this to learn about the most stupid thing any human has ever done.


monkeys, cats, dogs, cattle, humans, nothing is immune. And as South Korea has reported it mutates too. South Korea advised a day ago that they now have 116 people who were infected with Covid19 in January and were cured and released, but now they are back in the hospital infected again with a new variant of the Covid19 virus.



ELE = Extinction Level Event.
Thank you Dr. Chi

professor
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chatilliononline now!

cytokine storm... don't call the weatherman about this one!

Two weeks ago, I did a blog with links to videos from Dr. Duc Vuong who who gave excellent examples of how the respiratory system is compromised by the COVID-19 virus.
In it, he describes what happens when an infection is in the lungs and the immune system over reacts causing inflammation that clogs the airways and the lungs can no longer absorb oxygen. This is called a Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) or Cytokine Storm.
In an attempt to get more oxygen into the lungs, patients are put on invasive ventilators.
Dr. Vuong stated the death rate of those on ventilators is 80% and he says Isolation to lower the risk is the first line of defense from getting the virus. At an 80% death rate of those on ventilators, there must be a better way to treat patients.

A story came to light of an Emergency Room doctor in Seattle who contacted COVID-19. At the age of 44 he was admitted into his own hospital. "... fever, cough and difficulty breathing, he was placed on a ventilator. Five days after that, his lungs and kidneys were failing, his heart was in trouble, and doctors figured he had a day or so to live."
He was moved to another Seattle hospital who had a Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) where tubes were placed in his heart/veins and the machine replaced the function of the lungs by oxygenating his blood outside his body.
His team of doctors believed it wasn't the virus that was killing him, it was immune system. They tried the drug Actemra, designed to treat rheumatoid arthritis. In 2017 it was approved to treat cytokine storms in cancer patients.
"...after four days on the immunosuppressive drug, supplemented by high-dose vitamin C and other therapies, the level of oxygen in Padgett's blood improved dramatically. On March 23, doctors were able to take him off life support. Four days later, they removed his breathing tube."

It appears the key to survival is repressing the respiratory inflammation and riding out the cytokine storm!











story link:
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Shoelace

I HOPE ALL of US ARE SAFE

in this lock down in my country we hope to survive by the power of GOD AMENteddybear teddybear
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BCG (the TB inoculation) could be an answer

Most of us were inoculated against TB at birth - the BCG shot gave us a very mild and modified version of tuberculosis which our immune systems cured pretty promptly, leaving us with up to 15 years of protection.

In some countries TB remains a recurring problem and booster shots are required to top up that immunity. Africa, very much so, where it remains the leading cause of death. Countries like India, China, Portugal, Greenland, have higher incidences of it. Because BCG is a deliberate infection, it carries a slight risk in itself and also quite a painful jab to have, so since the 70s most countries have chosen only the birth shot, to protect children. The US, at very low risk of TB, chose a good while back to not inoculate at all.

The WHO is currently investigating the link between inoculation and the spread of the virus. It looks as though BCG - an inoculation which is cheap, plentiful and has been in use for 100 years - may be a key player in this war. Look at their TB map compared to the virus map I downloaded yesterday. You can see why they'd be interested.

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Fingers crossed.
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