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In biblical era plagues were punishments from God. (Some people think so even these days.) We are not dealing with a plague but a pandemic, some will say. Whatever. ...(I will learn the difference if someone doesn't point out the difference between a plague and a pandemic.)

However, as us humans and science evolved, we are more aware of bacteria, fungi, parasites and viruses. How they infect us and how they spread.

Anyway, understanding science is not a strength I am born with.

Just like Trump, none of us are medical experts to talk about medications and treatment. And as we all know internet and media are full of shit and lots of non experts giving expert advice. One moment you think you have learnt something, the next article tells that it is not true. (That is if you read in research mode rather than believe everything mode )

At this moment in time, it is better to understand our bodies and it's systems and functions than fall for every bullshit.

Our immune system is designed to protects us from infections through various lines of defence. It's a complex system. The function of our immune system is made up of the reciprocal reaction between our diet, stress, lifestyle and environment other than our genetic material and various types of cells and even memory cells that are stored to combat similar pathogens.

There are lots of bullshit about boosting the immune system these days.

But the truth is, the immune system is not designed to be Boosted. The correct message should be of maintaining a healthy immune system so that it would function when necessary to fight diseases,
by maintaining a healthy lifestyle, balanced diet and minimum stress levels.

Yes, there are certain nutrients, vitamins and minerals required for the function of our immune system. Lack of them in our diets will hinder the functions. But no secret ingredient, super food or a magic supplement can boost our immune system.

Non expert Usha marveled by the immune system signing off on a glorious Wednesday in month of April, year 2020.

Be safe. Stay home but not glued to a screen.
Have a nice day.!

Feel free to add any other facts about the immune system and its functions.

Not quick because of the testing but tests are being run on THOUSANDS of people, not handfuls of brave volunteers, which does mean results far, far sooner than new vaccines, and look at the results already ... That said, the WHO has cautioned (April 11, 2020) there is no guaranteed link between the BCG vaccine and Covid19 prevention. Their concern is obviously to ensure there is no shortage of the vaccine in the countries where it is essential, because of a sudden rush of demand. Fair comment. However they are closely monitoring several trials but don’t expect to be able to get your shot – or have it ruled out – in a week or so.

There is however definite interest and some huge studies / trials are in progress.

Published April 6, 2020 -
“While we expected to see a protective effect of BCG, the magnitude of the difference (almost 10 fold) in incidence and mortality (of Covid-19) between countries with and without a BCG vaccination program was pleasantly surprising,” said Dr. Ashish Kamat, a co-author of the paper and professor of Urologic Oncology (Surgery) and cancer research at MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas.

The study looked at Covid-19 instances and mortality for 15 days between 9 and 24 March in 178 countries and concluded that “incidence of Covid-19 was 38.4 per million in countries with BCG vaccination compared to 358.4 per million in the absence of such a program. The death rate was 4.28/million in countries with BCG programs compared to 40/million in countries without such a program.” Out of the 178 countries studied, 21 had no vaccination program, while the status was unclear in 26 countries. The latter group was treated as not having a policy for the purpose of this study.

The link for the above excerpts is

Published April 23, 2020
The WHO is closely monitoring the progression of two clinical trials investigating the effect of BCG vaccination in healthcare workers
- Phase III BRACE clinical trial, an Australian study sponsored by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in collaboration with The Royal Children’s Hospital (4000 participants)
- Phase III BCG-CORONA trial, a Dutch study sponsored by the University Medical Center Uterecht in collaboration with Radbound University (1500 participants)

Baylor College of Medicine and Ain Shams University are both conducting similar trials in which the patient population consists of health workers, and the trials are under Phase IV and Phase III level of development, respectively. One will last 9 months and the other 6 months. Number of participants not advised.

Two more trials have recently been registered. A Phase IV study in the Netherlands aims to test an elder patient cohort, where participants are ages 60 years or older. (1600 participants, 6 months)

A Phase II trial located in Egypt sponsored by Assiut University will assess the severity of Covid-19-positive patients ages 12–80 years previously vaccinated with a BCG vaccine to assess if the vaccine decreases the impact but will only use 100 subjects. Duration will be 2.2 months.

Link to the above excerpts is

I chose to start a new blog rather than add to my original blog about BCG because there was so much new data - also chose not to add to another blog about vaccines for the same reason.

From The Mercury News;



(continued in my first comment below)

Today from weather.com;

Dr. Scott Jensen says the American Medical Association is now “encouraging” doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the country.

Jensen received a 7-page document that showed him how to fill out a death certificate as a “COVID-19 diagnosis” even when there isn’t a lab test confirming the diagnosis.

“Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do.”

This is absolutely bone-chilling.

Just a few odds and ends, mostly central to the more clinical parts of the field. As with my profile, and rants, it all serves to send over 99% of CS ladies running away. Wise for them, and perfect for me. The few that aren't really scammers from Nigeria, and actually read profiles, and think they fit the bill, AND desire to discuss it, here, before moving onto private mail,---well, the plan is working as planned. As is the plan to get certain rubes booted off CS.
But first, while speaking of ladies, we at the Vierk Institute are pleased to announce the winner of the first student award for exceptional behaviors, in and out of the lecture halls and laboratories, in selfless service to learning about public health. Miss Jappy Goldstein, MD, PhD, studying for her masters degree in public health, is our hottie winner. An intrepid leader in where to sit and how to dress, while batting eyes down here in front at your emeritus lecturer, not to mention her interest in private lessons during orofice hours of the same,---well, she was talented in every possible way. So, the first Honorary Bill and Monica, 60 ring size, Presidente Cigar Award goes to her. As do the highest grades for the course, even before examinations. And she's also accepted an internship as teaching assistant next semester. With such youth, well, it brings tears to these old eyes. Yet, I hate digressing.
Google the terms false positive/negative and positive/negative predictive value, for how Clinical Epid enters into the practice of vaccine development, clinical trials, and for screening. And commonly misunderstood, screening does not mean identification of new cases, but only refers to selecting from defined populations those likely to be found having a given valid final working diagnosis, as with The Trump Derangement and other liberal behavioral syndromes. And screening must be inexpensive, harmless, easy to apply, and valid (as per above terms/concepts). And effective available further treatment/diagnostic measures must exist.
A few words on clinical trials. A hallmark of so called "evidenced based medicine", google the relevant terms of the concept, including,---randomization, double blinding, multiple study arms, power sample sizes, placebo controls, multi study sites, etc. Also, the way study subjects are entered or restricted from an investigation are important, as are proper analytical statistical approaches, data presentations and interpretations of findings.
But often the politics of such research are ignored. From seed money granting, to full funding, to formal study, to publication, and round about again, you won't find much on this, except from the Vierk. A hole separate lecture, but just follow the money. Shameless, political correctness at work. Don't take my words for it. Female breast cancer and HIV-AIDS research funding, versus that for similarly serious problems with straight older white males. But the problem does go both ways.
And consider the often pejorative use of "anecdotal evidence". People forget that "evidenced based " guidance only exist for relatively few clinical problems. Most medical practice emerges from how others did it, often for centuries. As anecdotal as it gets, but usually useful. Both in training and practice. First, do no harm.
Finally, one of my favorite variables emerging from Clinical Epid is the "Number Needed to Treat", the NNT. Buy careful study of diseases and treatments, using much of the above, this most useful parameter guides clinician nurses and physicians on the practicality of effective therapies. The lower the value, the better the medicine. If it's necessary to treat some 1,000 patients, to prevent a few cases or to lead to cures for just a few, well, it's not as good as getting such results by only treating a few.
Enough boredum for now. But we do so love to show off and to annoy, so more CS mini books may be lurking close by. Tootles, all. And Jappy, check how your maties are seated.

(See Comments for Update)

Aspirin's Lung Protection May Reduce Ventilation, ICU & Mortality In COVID-19 Patients. _________________________________________
This Blog Was Originally Posted As
"Covid And Blood Clots" - Approximately Eleven Months Ago, As Follows ...

NY Doctors Try New Treatment Protocol After Detecting Alarming Coronavirus Symptom
By Reuters
April 22, 2020 | 11:36am
I Wish Them Well.

The Florida Mental Health Act of 1971 (Florida Statute 394.451-394.47891), commonly known as the "Baker Act," allows the involuntary institutionalization and examination of an individual.

The Baker Act allows for involuntary examination (what some call emergency or involuntary commitment), which can be initiated by judges, law enforcement officials, physicians, or mental health professionals. There must be evidence that the person:

*possibly has a mental illness.
*is in danger of becoming a harm to self, harm to others, or is self neglectful.

Both of these are defined in the Baker Act.

I'm reading up on this as there's a Florida resident being considered.



Obviously, this blog has nothing to do with bread or pastry...

Covering the field in a half dozen blogs, of a few (separate) paragraphs each, is brilliant, if I do say so myself. And In such frequent situations, I gladly prefer to say so myself. Digressing.
OK, so the difference between clinical medicine, where emphasis is on individual patients, and population medicine, (Epid), has already been made. And the basic working features of the craft were covered as well. These include measuring "exposures", which can range from how we choose to live, our environments, genetics, and so on. And "outcomes", such as illnesses/health, availability of health services, etc. And using various techniques to tease out the interactions of these two with "intervening variables", such as smoking, stressors, and so on. Recently, newer variables, such as those from genetics, protein biochemistry, etc. are studied, using Epid methods.
The calculations for this work can actually be done by hand, in simpler study situations. A few decades ago, when TI calculators were popular, these had enough oomph to handle larger data sets, and more complex analyses. But now most such tasks are done via computers. The added computational power allows for much greater use of huge data sets, and quite robust statistical techniques, notably the many varieties of "regression". Which leads to how all these "models" the policy makers love to parrot about evolved.
As with most of this, the underlying concepts are simple. Statistical regression programs take a list of "exposure" variables, such as age, weight, medicines used, etc (so called Beta X items), after making sure that their own statistical characteristics are understood, of can be transformed as such,-and variously relates the relative strengths of these with "outcomes". With one or two exposures, and one outcome, often as an exercise in basic Epid/biostatistics course work, hand calculations are tedious, but possible. But computers of course are the rub here. Most approaches utilize so called methods of minimizing least squares, whereby for any variable, statistical distributions are calculated to best match/or separate from, each other, to see if these also relate to the outcomes, and how strongly so.
Lots of forms of these analyses exist, including multiple logistic, multiiterative approaches, using "dummy" variables (yep, that's what they are called), etc. And, after it looks like a given such "model" has a little heft, it can then be used to try to predict what can happen in a defined population.
So this is how these models come into existence. It's how predictions are made on what type of vaccine might best work in a given year. Or how the incidence/prevalence (two basic Epid ratios/rates---goggle these), of Covid-19 afflicted people might evolve in different populations, over time. That's it, folks.
Except to cite Mark Twain's quip. "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics!" To which might be added "Models", as a fourth. Next time, we'll tie up a few Epid odds and ends. And speaking of tying up, could I please see Miss Goldstein in my office, after class?

This SHOULD go without saying, BUT.....
Lets just say, that in no large group is everyone going to be
of the same intelligence. That will not happen.
We are unique individuals.
Having read some of the things I see on here,
believe it or not, I truly worry about some of you especially after witnessing
how some of you are easily mislead.

Thus, just in case the hydroxychloroquin mishaps were not enough,
please do not inject disinfectant, no matter what the idiot-in-chief says.
And in case there are any doubts, here is the words of the FDA commissioner on this topic;

From CNN;