Get into safety (35)
In response to: I am sure most of you are following the current events on the markets, where despite good earnings the markets have been falling. If EWI is right, social mood moves the markets and the markets lead the economy. That is, when the markets are bullish, investors earn big money that ends up in the real economy. When markets are falling, investors loose a lot of money, so they cut back on spending, shed jobs, etc, which has an effect on the real economy, but beyond all these the markets are a reflection of the social mood, that is, how investors view the future.
Times are still reasonably good here down under, but expect a sharp downturn, more severe than in 2008. Though I am not a financial adviser, I think it is a good thing to put super into cash equivalents as generally they are invested in stock and real estate, neither of which are doing well right now.
Times are still reasonably good here down under, but expect a sharp downturn, more severe than in 2008. Though I am not a financial adviser, I think it is a good thing to put super into cash equivalents as generally they are invested in stock and real estate, neither of which are doing well right now.
& i thought you would've changed being in your new home
joking
revealer24: I am sure most of you are following the current events on the markets, where despite good earnings the markets have been falling. If EWI is right, social mood moves the markets and the markets lead the economy. That is, when the markets are bullish, investors earn big money that ends up in the real economy. When markets are falling, investors loose a lot of money, so they cut back on spending, shed jobs, etc, which has an effect on the real economy, but beyond all these the markets are a reflection of the social mood, that is, how investors view the future.
Times are still reasonably good here down under, but expect a sharp downturn, more severe than in 2008. Though I am not a financial adviser, I think it is a good thing to put super into cash equivalents as generally they are invested in stock and real estate, neither of which are doing well right now.
Times are still reasonably good here down under, but expect a sharp downturn, more severe than in 2008. Though I am not a financial adviser, I think it is a good thing to put super into cash equivalents as generally they are invested in stock and real estate, neither of which are doing well right now.
I probably shouldn't post here as I am no expert in financial markets, but I am fascinated by the psychologsy of trading. I agree with you about the markets being a reflection of the social mood. Mass panic does wonders, too. Mind you, a lot of people make a lot of money as they did recently, in selling off just before the big drop, then they back in really cheaply and wait for the rise again.
(I could kick myself not being quick enough at this point).
I don't know about Queensland, but there is something really horrid happening in the SA real estate market. I don't have much time to devote to it, but I am licensed so I am slightly involved. The market has slowed hugely, but frankly I think a lot of that is due to people's mental attitude and largely irrational beliefs about what is really happening. As an investor and first home buyer, it still makes sense to buy when properties are still relatively affordable in the lower end. I had a potential buyer of a property of mine, an engineer, just last week use the words, 'this recession'...I thought, what recession?? Sure, things are a bit tough, but jeepers, I wouldn't say we were in a recession here in Australia.
Having said this about investors and first home buyers, about putting super into cash equivalents wherever possible right now. Best of all, self managed funds might be a lot of work, but at least you have control and an interest in making your money grow and at least TRY and keep it safe. Unlike many super fund managers, happy to let your money go down the gurgler with irresponsible investments of others' money.
Anyhoo.... lots of work the next three days, a proposal due 5pm Monday. Ideas are flowing, but not yet amounting to anything
venere08: I probably shouldn't post here as I am no expert in financial markets, but I am fascinated by the Reverend. I agree with you about the markets being a reflection of the social mood. Mass panic does wonders, too. Mind you, a lot of people make a lot of money as they did recently, in selling off just before the big drop, then they back in really cheaply and wait for the rise again.
(I could kick myself not being quick enough at this point).
I don't know about Queensland, but there is something really horrid happening in the SA real estate market. I don't have much time to devote to it, but I am licensed so I am slightly involved. The market has slowed hugely, but frankly I think a lot of that is due to people's mental attitude and largely irrational beliefs about what is really happening. As an investor and first home buyer, it still makes sense to buy when properties are still relatively affordable in the lower end. I had a potential buyer of a property of mine, an engineer, just last week use the words, 'this recession'...I thought, what recession?? Sure, things are a bit tough, but jeepers, I wouldn't say we were in a recession here in Australia.
Having said this about investors and first home buyers, about putting super into cash equivalents wherever possible right now. Best of all, self managed funds might be a lot of work, but at least you have control and an interest in making your money grow and at least TRY and keep it safe. Unlike many super fund managers, happy to let your money go down the gurgler with irresponsible investments of others' money.
Anyhoo.... lots of work the next three days, a proposal due 5pm Monday. Ideas are flowing, but not yet amounting to anything
(I could kick myself not being quick enough at this point).
I don't know about Queensland, but there is something really horrid happening in the SA real estate market. I don't have much time to devote to it, but I am licensed so I am slightly involved. The market has slowed hugely, but frankly I think a lot of that is due to people's mental attitude and largely irrational beliefs about what is really happening. As an investor and first home buyer, it still makes sense to buy when properties are still relatively affordable in the lower end. I had a potential buyer of a property of mine, an engineer, just last week use the words, 'this recession'...I thought, what recession?? Sure, things are a bit tough, but jeepers, I wouldn't say we were in a recession here in Australia.
Having said this about investors and first home buyers, about putting super into cash equivalents wherever possible right now. Best of all, self managed funds might be a lot of work, but at least you have control and an interest in making your money grow and at least TRY and keep it safe. Unlike many super fund managers, happy to let your money go down the gurgler with irresponsible investments of others' money.
Anyhoo.... lots of work the next three days, a proposal due 5pm Monday. Ideas are flowing, but not yet amounting to anything
Nite 
luv yooz xxx venere08: I probably shouldn't post here as I am no expert in financial markets, but I am fascinated by the psychology of trading. I agree with you about the markets being a reflection of the social mood. Mass panic does wonders, too. Mind you, a lot of people make a lot of money as they did recently, in selling off just before the big drop, then they
buy back in really cheaply and wait for the rise again. (I could kick myself not being quick enough at this point)......
buy back in really cheaply and wait for the rise again. (I could kick myself not being quick enough at this point)......
As you all know I work for a number of small business that cover a broad spectrum of industry and trades.
One particular business up until a week or two ago, was taking bookings 2 - 3 weeks ahead now they've caught up and are flat out booking out the current week. Not a good sign.
Another business has NO pending jobs.
Generally the belief in business is that when these Market falls hit, 50% of people will stop spending, 50% continue on spending as normal. I dont think thats whats happening at the moment, seems that spending has reduced tremendously.
One particular business up until a week or two ago, was taking bookings 2 - 3 weeks ahead now they've caught up and are flat out booking out the current week. Not a good sign.
Another business has NO pending jobs.
Generally the belief in business is that when these Market falls hit, 50% of people will stop spending, 50% continue on spending as normal. I dont think thats whats happening at the moment, seems that spending has reduced tremendously.
The market trends are strictly controlled by the major world banks. If they are in a downturn, look at what the top banks are doing for why. The great depression made millions for the rockerfellers, vanderbilts and others and was engineered to do just that. If it does come to a depression, it will only be as long as they want it that way and they have finished buying companies and so on for pennies in the dollar.
underwaterman: The market trends are strictly controlled by the major world banks. If they are in a downturn, look at what the top banks are doing for why. The great depression made millions for the rockerfellers, vanderbilts and others and was engineered to do just that. If it does come to a depression, it will only be as long as they want it that way and they have finished buying companies and so on for pennies in the dollar.
another point to ponder is the Superannuation companies. Every time this happens our Supers get gobbled up and loose thousands and tens of thousands of dollars. Seems like its good for them too, alot less they have to pay out in the long run
Think of people who were contemplating retirement... suddenly they've lost oodles of money they were banking on to fund their future.
We are all contemplating retirment , be it in two yrs or ten what effects the markets now will effect our futures too.Personally I think realesate is the best option, people always will need somewhere to live
Lookin4missright: Nite luv yooz xxx
Hey, Lookin
You might want to check out this thread on the Inters...
Shell225: As you all know I work for a number of small business that cover a broad spectrum of industry and trades.
One particular business up until a week or two ago, was taking bookings 2 - 3 weeks ahead now they've caught up and are flat out booking out the current week. Not a good sign.
Another business has NO pending jobs.
Generally the belief in business is that when these Market falls hit, 50% of people will stop spending, 50% continue on spending as normal. I dont think thats whats happening at the moment, seems that spending has reduced tremendously.
One particular business up until a week or two ago, was taking bookings 2 - 3 weeks ahead now they've caught up and are flat out booking out the current week. Not a good sign.
Another business has NO pending jobs.
Generally the belief in business is that when these Market falls hit, 50% of people will stop spending, 50% continue on spending as normal. I dont think thats whats happening at the moment, seems that spending has reduced tremendously.
Here is an interesting article titled "What Leads Directly to an Economic Depression?":
It is social mood, that is, how investors collectively feel about the future, that leads to economic reality. When they think bleak times are ahead, they reduce spending, cut jobs, move their cash to safety. The general public becomes more careful about what they spend money on, they give up on the things that are not immediately necessary for daily living, buy second hand instead of new. This, of course, plays out in the real economy, businesses make less money and may even close down leading to higher unemployment, which in turn reduces spending even further as people on the dole don't have much money - hence my call to increase welfare rather than decrease it.
Social tensions are also amplified, for as long as people have money they care not much about anything, but when their pockets are hurt, they get upset. The young generation being the most sensitive to social tensions tend to riot. This is what we saw in the UK, and I think we will also see it happening over here.
underwaterman: The market trends are strictly controlled by the major world banks. If they are in a downturn, look at what the top banks are doing for why. The great depression made millions for the rockerfellers, vanderbilts and others and was engineered to do just that. If it does come to a depression, it will only be as long as they want it that way and they have finished buying companies and so on for pennies in the dollar.
The big banks you are talking about were caught with their pants down in the 2007-2008 crisis and will be caught in an even worse situation in the near future. Just consider how Westpac carved up most of the mortgage market right on the top of the bubble, and now that the real estate bubble burst they stand to loose the most. Your money is not safe with them.
Three residential towers were built in Southport on the Gold Coast, the third one is still unsold. An investor bought an unit in one of them for $650k and now it is on the market for $450k. There are huge falls on the Gold Coast, much of what is happening doesn't get reported because they want to avoid panic.
Have a lok at the second chart:
Our bubble is the biggest in the world. There is a long way down...
I can only see one market that is a sure winner, and that is manufactories of coffins. 
kizzy27: We are all contemplating retirment , be it in two yrs or ten what effects the markets now will effect our futures too.Personally I think realesate is the best option, people always will need somewhere to live
...but if you buy a property for $500k and by the time you pay off it is only worth $150k it is not much fun. It is not good to buy on the top of the bubble, else you end up with negative equity and cannot even sell until it is paid off.
venere08: Hey, Lookin
You might want to check out this thread on the Inters...
Thank you (i think) You might want to check out this thread on the Inters...
I may have to check up on where the saying (send in the clowns) came from & why 
Its been around for hundreds of years. 
revealer24: ...but if you buy a property for $500k and by the time you pay off it is only worth $150k it is not much fun. It is not good to buy on the top of the bubble, else you end up with negative equity and cannot even sell until it is paid off.
Thats the thing You dont buy property for $500K !You use the equity in your own homeand buy cheap & rent it out the rent covers maybe 80% of your 2nd morgage but you now dont have to pay tax! The Tax you save pays the rest plus incidentals ! As the "Bubble Bursts people still need accomadation , especially those who will lose their homes.
kizzy27: Thats the thing You dont buy property for $500K !You use the equity in your own homeand buy cheap & rent it out the rent covers maybe 80% of your 2nd morgage but you now dont have to pay tax! The Tax you save pays the rest plus incidentals ! As the "Bubble Bursts people still need accomadation , especially those who will lose their homes.
In NZ long time ago, people held views like that and the government of the day froze rents and tenants families right to live in the property forever.
Because of legislation Government enacted I know of at least one instance where the landlord, couldn't increase the rent from what it had been in the 1940's and couldn't kick the tenants out for as long as any family member desired to stay there, so the landlord was faced with low rent the properties upkeep as well as the rates etc.
It beggers disbelief property prices will always go up, I think most urban properties are grossly over valued. Though as long as government continues a emigration program probably then demand will keep prices up. But when reality returns, (no jobs in the cities, no food in the supper markets) most will become worthless liabilities
Shell225: another point to ponder is the Superannuation companies. Every time this happens our Supers get gobbled up and loose thousands and tens of thousands of dollars. Seems like its good for them too, alot less they have to pay out in the long run
Think of people who were contemplating retirement... suddenly they've lost oodles of money they were banking on to fund their future.
Think of people who were contemplating retirement... suddenly they've lost oodles of money they were banking on to fund their future.
I used to work with a lady who together with her husband lost $175k in the previous downturn, which threw them back by 10 years. There is a much bigger downturn coming that may lead to a great depression deeper than in the 30's.
revealer24: I used to work with a lady who together with her husband lost $175k in the previous downturn, which threw them back by 10 years. There is a much bigger downturn coming that may lead to a great depression deeper than in the 30's.
Hi Rev
They haven't yest sorted a faction of the derivatives (some local councils [rate payers] in Australia borrowed heavily in that market) also governments have borrowed against all the legal money circulating (which is between 3 and 4 trillion) countries have borrowed $780 Trillion...
i agree Rev
i agree
me thinks better to stay liquid, CASH
me thinks better to stay liquid, CASH
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Times are still reasonably good here down under, but expect a sharp downturn, more severe than in 2008. Though I am not a financial adviser, I think it is a good thing to put super into cash equivalents as generally they are invested in stock and real estate, neither of which are doing well right now.