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Fools Rush In - Understanding the lag in virus data & avoiding the tendency to jump to conclusions
Today from of the New York Times;
From Bloomberg;
In response to:
How Virus Data Can Mislead
by David Leonhardt
Life in New York City felt pretty normal in early March. Children were going to school. Restaurants and theaters were packed. On March 9, I recorded a podcast in front of a few hundred people in Times Square.
In hindsight, we know that the coronavirus was then sweeping across the city.
Deaths peaked in early to mid-April. And the typical time from contraction to death is from three to five weeks, according to my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli — which suggests early March was near the peak for transmission.
Over the next couple of weeks, it’s going to be important to keep this recent history in mind. Without mass testing — and the United States is not doing mass testing — there is a lag before a virus outbreak becomes apparent. Most people who develop symptoms don’t do so for at least five days, and sometimes longer. The worst symptoms usually take almost three weeks to appear.
With more parts of the U.S. starting to reopen, many people will be tempted to look at the data this week and start proclaiming victory over the virus. But this week’s data won’t tell us much. It will instead reflect the reality from early May and late April, when much of the country was still on lockdown.
“The data are always two or three weeks old,” Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania told me. “And we have a hard time understanding that things are different from what we’re looking at.” Crystal Watson of Johns Hopkins University told The Associated Press that we wouldn’t really know how reopening had affected the virus’s spread for five to six weeks.
It’s possible that the re-openings won’t cause the outbreaks that many epidemiologists fear — because many people will still stay home, or because they will venture out cautiously, or because the virus may spread more slowly in warmer air. But it’s also possible that the country will find itself suffering through a new wave of outbreaks in June.
Either way, I’d encourage you not to leap to premature conclusions.
How Virus Data Can Mislead
by David Leonhardt
Life in New York City felt pretty normal in early March. Children were going to school. Restaurants and theaters were packed. On March 9, I recorded a podcast in front of a few hundred people in Times Square.
In hindsight, we know that the coronavirus was then sweeping across the city.
Deaths peaked in early to mid-April. And the typical time from contraction to death is from three to five weeks, according to my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli — which suggests early March was near the peak for transmission.
Over the next couple of weeks, it’s going to be important to keep this recent history in mind. Without mass testing — and the United States is not doing mass testing — there is a lag before a virus outbreak becomes apparent. Most people who develop symptoms don’t do so for at least five days, and sometimes longer. The worst symptoms usually take almost three weeks to appear.
With more parts of the U.S. starting to reopen, many people will be tempted to look at the data this week and start proclaiming victory over the virus. But this week’s data won’t tell us much. It will instead reflect the reality from early May and late April, when much of the country was still on lockdown.
“The data are always two or three weeks old,” Ezekiel Emanuel of the University of Pennsylvania told me. “And we have a hard time understanding that things are different from what we’re looking at.” Crystal Watson of Johns Hopkins University told The Associated Press that we wouldn’t really know how reopening had affected the virus’s spread for five to six weeks.
It’s possible that the re-openings won’t cause the outbreaks that many epidemiologists fear — because many people will still stay home, or because they will venture out cautiously, or because the virus may spread more slowly in warmer air. But it’s also possible that the country will find itself suffering through a new wave of outbreaks in June.
Either way, I’d encourage you not to leap to premature conclusions.
From Bloomberg;
online today!
Where we get our news.
So, first my own news time line. Beginning before teenage years, with my first shortwave radio receiver, I noticed the vast differences between most print and broadcast media (P&BM) and what we heard on Radio Free Europe, Radio Marti, Voice of America, BBC, and the other hundreds of international broadcasters world wide. It was the start of the so called cold war, and most sides had their own brand of propaganda. Some so one sided and simple minded that little vetting was required. Others, seemingly were more even handed. I learned to listen to many, and to try to sort out the truth. And when I became a radio amateur, we could chat on topics.
Now, these broadcasters were typically state or God Squad funded, so little commercial influence seemed present. A few briefly tried a few schemes to pay the bills for vast antenna farms, and high powered transmitters, not to mention mostly boring broadcast/editorial staff, but this didn't last. There were on- the- air language courses, with free books/materials, and contests for winning books, T shirts, maps, and even trips. Within some otherwise dreadful program content, came some decent stuff. Radio Moscow's jazz programming is one example.
Now, during these first few decades of these media, the propaganda was either starkly left or more moderately right sided. The former in communist countries, and the latter elsewhere, in the democracies. Some broadcasters, notably the BBC, were quite fairly unbiased, so much so that during the Malvinas conflict, the service was taken to task for reporting fairly where Argentina was concerned. The same can be said for the early years of American Public Radio/TV, originally set up, beginning on university campus radio stations, to provide a non commercial alternative to the advert laden P&BM.
This changed, certainly for the BBC and USA Public Broadcasters, around the start of the '80's/'90's. Anyone who will not admit to marked left bias of these last two services, suffers from one of the Syndromes, so well characterized here at the Vierk Institute. My explanation, there are others, for this, is the entrance to the broadcast houses (and print media) of new younger staff, all having spent years being indoctrinated by government school and university venues of leftie propaganda. As with ESL.
But now there are few international shortwave broadcasters left. And the ones remaining now use FM radio and TV streaming to reach audiences. Signal quality is greatly improved, but the access for biased editorial input correspondingly increased. Still, many parts of the world, notably Africa, depend upon their portable SW receivers.
One final note. These 'public' broadcast outlets were, and still largely are, funded by taxpayer dollars. Here in the States, largely thanks to Republican input, this has decreased significantly, with a corresponding shameless increase in adverts and regular bauble pushing begathons. Hardly fair, with citizenry much more diverse politically. The same applies to government education.
If Mr. Trump can beat the demented opposition, sure, there will be a continuation of his mandated MAGA programs. But along with infrastructure restoration, better border control, continued economic growth, putting NATO/China and others into more fair practices, and a generations secure new SCOTUS, watch for further culling of the biased public media away from the taxpayers' teats. And huge more evenhanded alternatives. In fairness, taxpayer supported, for a few decades, as were public broadcast outlets. Hold the statist lefties noses to the stone. They'd do it to us, as the syndromes clearly demonstrate.You heard it here first.
Now, these broadcasters were typically state or God Squad funded, so little commercial influence seemed present. A few briefly tried a few schemes to pay the bills for vast antenna farms, and high powered transmitters, not to mention mostly boring broadcast/editorial staff, but this didn't last. There were on- the- air language courses, with free books/materials, and contests for winning books, T shirts, maps, and even trips. Within some otherwise dreadful program content, came some decent stuff. Radio Moscow's jazz programming is one example.
Now, during these first few decades of these media, the propaganda was either starkly left or more moderately right sided. The former in communist countries, and the latter elsewhere, in the democracies. Some broadcasters, notably the BBC, were quite fairly unbiased, so much so that during the Malvinas conflict, the service was taken to task for reporting fairly where Argentina was concerned. The same can be said for the early years of American Public Radio/TV, originally set up, beginning on university campus radio stations, to provide a non commercial alternative to the advert laden P&BM.
This changed, certainly for the BBC and USA Public Broadcasters, around the start of the '80's/'90's. Anyone who will not admit to marked left bias of these last two services, suffers from one of the Syndromes, so well characterized here at the Vierk Institute. My explanation, there are others, for this, is the entrance to the broadcast houses (and print media) of new younger staff, all having spent years being indoctrinated by government school and university venues of leftie propaganda. As with ESL.
But now there are few international shortwave broadcasters left. And the ones remaining now use FM radio and TV streaming to reach audiences. Signal quality is greatly improved, but the access for biased editorial input correspondingly increased. Still, many parts of the world, notably Africa, depend upon their portable SW receivers.
One final note. These 'public' broadcast outlets were, and still largely are, funded by taxpayer dollars. Here in the States, largely thanks to Republican input, this has decreased significantly, with a corresponding shameless increase in adverts and regular bauble pushing begathons. Hardly fair, with citizenry much more diverse politically. The same applies to government education.
If Mr. Trump can beat the demented opposition, sure, there will be a continuation of his mandated MAGA programs. But along with infrastructure restoration, better border control, continued economic growth, putting NATO/China and others into more fair practices, and a generations secure new SCOTUS, watch for further culling of the biased public media away from the taxpayers' teats. And huge more evenhanded alternatives. In fairness, taxpayer supported, for a few decades, as were public broadcast outlets. Hold the statist lefties noses to the stone. They'd do it to us, as the syndromes clearly demonstrate.You heard it here first.
Yum ! It's what's for dinner blog #3
I gave up food for lent, so.....
Just kidding.
Seriously, tonight's dinner was pot roast
and mashed potatoes topped with pot roast gravy.
I sliced a carrot that was cooked with the pot roast.
I also had an ear of corn. Did you hear that ?
It was only the second time this year so far.
I had one 2 days ago. That was the first of the year for me.
I am alternating that each day. I have 3 more left in the bag.
I ate the corn raw. It was good, very sweet.
I also made a fresh (raw) salad from red leaf lettuce, a leaf of mustard,
3 snowcap mushrooms and 1/2 of a roma tomato.
A bit of Balsamic vinegar to top off the salad.
For dessert I had 2 small nectarines.
Yum. Belly appreciate much.
Just kidding.
Seriously, tonight's dinner was pot roast
and mashed potatoes topped with pot roast gravy.
I sliced a carrot that was cooked with the pot roast.
I also had an ear of corn. Did you hear that ?
It was only the second time this year so far.
I had one 2 days ago. That was the first of the year for me.
I am alternating that each day. I have 3 more left in the bag.
I ate the corn raw. It was good, very sweet.
I also made a fresh (raw) salad from red leaf lettuce, a leaf of mustard,
3 snowcap mushrooms and 1/2 of a roma tomato.
A bit of Balsamic vinegar to top off the salad.
For dessert I had 2 small nectarines.
Yum. Belly appreciate much.
Megyn Kelly Was Fired For MENTIONING Blackface.Will Kimmel and Fallon Be Fired For Actually DOING IT
OF COURSE NOT! Kelly is a Republican and conservative, Kimmel and Fallon are good little lackeys for the corrupt Democrat controlled fake news media propaganda machine. Their jobs are secure. As long as you brownnose the Democrats you can get away with anything.
Where are the protests from the Democrats and the demands to have Kimmel and Fallen fired? Where are the boycotts? Where is the outrage?!!!
There isn't any. Why? Because the Democrats are FAKES, PHONIES AND FRAUDS.
Where are the protests from the Democrats and the demands to have Kimmel and Fallen fired? Where are the boycotts? Where is the outrage?!!!
There isn't any. Why? Because the Democrats are FAKES, PHONIES AND FRAUDS.
Gov.Dewine's talks about what happened in Columbus,Ohio
George Floyd and the overnight protests in Columbus.
Posse Comitatus
here is an in depth discussion on Posse Comitatus, the Nation Guard and the Insurrection Act
A Blog is a journal you may enter about your life, your thoughts, interesting experiences, or lessons you have learned. It's your own page on Connecting Singles that you can update on a regular basis, or just whenever you have something to say. You can write about an opinion, impart words of wisdom, or talk about something interesting in your day. Creating a blog is a good way to share something of yourself with Connecting Singles members. Reading blogs is a good way to learn more about members you have met here. Please be sure to read the blog rules before posting.
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