Albertaghost: I looked at that years ago. The airlines were in a nose dive anyhow and while not normal everyday activity, they are not without precedent as spikes even more dramatic in put activity occurred well before and during that year for airline stock.
Those placing the puts were tracked down and the whole event was non consequential.
True, very rational and possible indeed. Thanks for your input Alberta.
AlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada5,914 posts
StressFree: True, very rational and possible indeed. Thanks for your input Alberta.
I thought it was pretty creepy at first too then when I looked around I found this;
"" There has been a great deal of talk about alleged insider trading of airline stocks by associates of Osama bin Laden prior to the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Government investigators remain tight-lipped about a Department of Justice (DOJ) probe of possible profiteering by terrorists with advance knowledge of the attacks despite data that show trading activity on at least two of the most obvious stocks don't support the premise.
In fact, based on financial information almost immediately available to investigators, even the most febrile conspiracy theorists would have to agree that this dog don't hunt. For instance, much of the speculation involves "put" options--a bet that a stock will go down--on American and United airlines, the two carriers whose planes hijackers seized for the attacks. Yes, there was a spike in puts on those airlines just days before, but the data show such spikes weren't anomalous.
On Sept. 6, 2001, the Thursday before the tragedy, 2,075 put options were made on United Airlines and on Sept. 10, the day before the attacks, 2,282 put options were recorded for American Airlines. Given the prices at the time, this would have yielded speculators between $2 million and $4 million in profit--hardly what any analyst would call a killing in the options markets. Based on historical data for both airlines, the put options just prior to Sept. 11 neither were dramatic nor unprecedented.
For example, there were repeated spikes in put options on American Airlines during the year before Sept. 11, including June 19 with 2,951 puts, June 15 at 1,144 puts, April 16 at 1,019 and Jan. 8 at 1,315 puts. United Airlines puts were a little more during the prior year, including Aug. 8 at 1,678 puts, July 20 with 2,995, April 6 at 8,212 and March 13 at 8,072. Since such relatively small spikes in options occur frequently and in a random pattern, why would respected financial analysts and government investigators cry foul?""
The point is not the absolute number of put options, but the ratio of puts/calls. During days when the company announces earnings/guidance, it's normal to have big numbers of both puts and calls, with somehow more puts if they expect bad results, and somehow more calls if good results are anticipated. The ratio's normal values are from .8 to a bit more than 1. Then...
On Sept. 6-7, when there was no significant news or stock price movement involving United, the Chicago exchange handled 4,744 put options for UAL stock, compared with just 396 call options -- essentially bets that the price will rise. On Sept. 10, an uneventful day for American, the volume was 748 calls and 4,516 puts, based on a check of option trading records.
You can compute the rations yourself. That's what is hard to explain.
deadbutwhy: The point is not the absolute number of put options, but the ratio of puts/calls. During days when the company announces earnings/guidance, it's normal to have big numbers of both puts and calls, with somehow more puts if they expect bad results, and somehow more calls if good results are anticipated. The ratio's normal values are from .8 to a bit more than 1. Then...
On Sept. 6-7, when there was no significant news or stock price movement involving United, the Chicago exchange handled 4,744 put options for UAL stock, compared with just 396 call options -- essentially bets that the price will rise. On Sept. 10, an uneventful day for American, the volume was 748 calls and 4,516 puts, based on a check of option trading records.
You can compute the rations yourself. That's what is hard to explain.
It really wasn't hard to explain at all. I suspect the reason this still goes "unexplained" even though it has been well explained is due entirely to the fact that people who really, really, really WANT to believe the 9/11 insider conspiracy theory thing is true simply don't want to have an answer.
deadbutwhyeast, Eastern Province Saudi Arabia1,295 posts
gardenhackle: It really wasn't hard to explain at all. I suspect the reason this still goes "unexplained" even though it has been well explained is due entirely to the fact that people who really, really, really WANT to believe the 9/11 insider conspiracy theory thing is true simply don't want to have an answer.
The SEC and the FBI, aided by other agencies and the securities industry, devoted enormous resources to investigate this issue, including securing the cooperation of many foreign governments. These investigators have found that the apparently suspicious consistently proved innocuous.
It also mentions that the trades were traced back to the US.
Are they innocuous just because the FBI and SEC said so, despite the highly unusual put/call ratio? If the FBI tells me that they tossed a coin twenty times and they got only heads, should I believe them?
Hell no, I know how unlikely it is: less than 1 in a million.
aspen12portage la prarie, Manitoba Canada528 posts
gardenhackle: It really wasn't hard to explain at all. I suspect the reason this still goes "unexplained" even though it has been well explained is due entirely to the fact that people who really, really, really WANT to believe the 9/11 insider conspiracy theory thing is true simply don't want to have an answer.
deadbutwhyeast, Eastern Province Saudi Arabia1,295 posts
gardenhackle:
It was determined that the "unusual activity" was the work of ONE large institutional investor. It was part of that investor's market strategy. It DID include the purchase of 95 percent of the puts available on September the 6th (5 days before 9/11).That would be pretty damned stupid if he expected the stock to take a huge hit the very next day. Use your head, man.
Quote from wiki:
A put option (usually just called a "put") is a financial contract between two parties, the writer (seller) and the buyer of the option. The buyer acquires a short position by purchasing the right to sell the underlying instrument to the seller of the option for a specified price (the strike price) during a specified period of time.
The expiration date of the option can be 5 or 10 days down the road.
A put option (usually just called a "put") is a financial contract between two parties, the writer (seller) and the buyer of the option. The buyer acquires a short position by purchasing the right to sell the underlying instrument to the seller of the option for a specified price (the strike price) during a specified period of time.
The expiration date of the option can be 5 or 10 days down the road.
My mistake. If you had read the article you would know that I mentioned the puts but apparently deleted (addidentally) the important thing.... the same buyer purchased 115,000 shares of UAL on the 10th. That was the part that would be STUPID if the buyer had inside knowledge of it tanking the next day.
My mistake that it wasn't part of the post, but go ahead and read the snopes link that explains it. If you're in it for the money and know a stock is going to tank, you aren't going to buy over 100,000 shares of it the day before it crashes.
AlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada5,914 posts
deadbutwhy: The point is not the absolute number of put options, but the ratio of puts/calls. During days when the company announces earnings/guidance, it's normal to have big numbers of both puts and calls, with somehow more puts if they expect bad results, and somehow more calls if good results are anticipated. The ratio's normal values are from .8 to a bit more than 1. Then...
On Sept. 6-7, when there was no significant news or stock price movement involving United, the Chicago exchange handled 4,744 put options for UAL stock, compared with just 396 call options -- essentially bets that the price will rise. On Sept. 10, an uneventful day for American, the volume was 748 calls and 4,516 puts, based on a check of option trading records.
You can compute the rations yourself. That's what is hard to explain.
Airline stock was down and going lower. hence, people will short rather than buy.
Article ""Anyway, says Hamilton, "recall that the market was in bad shape in the summer and early fall, and you know there were a lot of people who believed that there would be a sell-off in the market long before Sept. 11. For instance, American Airlines was at $40 in May and fell to $29 on Sept. 10; United was at $37 in May and fell to $31 on Sept. 10. These stocks were falling anyway and it would have been a good time to short them. I like to think of this as an urban legend now. I think it is the World Trade Center urban legend.""
What this means is your formula is not set in stone or even close. Puts will always outnumber calls when a market or stock is going down.
aspen12portage la prarie, Manitoba Canada528 posts
Albertaghost: Airline stock was down and going lower. hence, people will short rather than buy.
Article ""Anyway, says Hamilton, "recall that the market was in bad shape in the summer and early fall, and you know there were a lot of people who believed that there would be a sell-off in the market long before Sept. 11. For instance, American Airlines was at $40 in May and fell to $29 on Sept. 10; United was at $37 in May and fell to $31 on Sept. 10. These stocks were falling anyway and it would have been a good time to short them. I like to think of this as an urban legend now. I think it is the World Trade Center urban legend.""
What this means is your formula is not set in stone or even close. Puts will always outnumber calls when a market or stock is going down.
DID YOU FIND THAT MOLTEN STEEL YET KEEP LOOKING UNCLE ITS THERE
AlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada5,914 posts
aspen12: EXCATLY NOW EXPLAIN WHY IT WAS FOUND IN THE BUILDINGS IN THE BASEMENTS
It wasn't. At least you have not told us where and by whom it was found.
aspen12: NO I HAVENT WHY ANYONE USE WASHERS PLASTIC YET NOW THATS FUNNY
That's cause you are not too bright and don't understand a lot of things. You call concrete cement and now, you never heard of nylon or plastic washers.
""As described in the foregoing, the washer is provided with depressions preferably in the bearing surface thereof to face the elements being joined in which depressions the fluid capsule layers 11 are formed. In the course of tightening the bolt, the uneven washer is readily flattened under the applying load against the bolt whereby the fluid layer is broken to release the confined fluid through gaps between the bolt head, the washer and the pieces being joined. Through the indication of the fluid, an operator can readily recognize that the applied load is appropriate for joining the pieces without the need of any special tools or devices. By appropriately selecting the size and depth of the depression in the washer, a variety of strength of load can readily be achieved. Additionally, the production of load-indicating washer according to the present invention is possible at a relatively low cost and the visual inspection insures a better joining of the pieces against any fracture accidents due to an overload of the fastening. ""
aspen12portage la prarie, Manitoba Canada528 posts
Albertaghost: It wasn't. At least you have not told us where and by whom it was found.
That's cause you are not too bright and don't understand a lot of things. You call concrete cement and now, you never heard of nylon or plastic washers.
""As described in the foregoing, the washer is provided with depressions preferably in the bearing surface thereof to face the elements being joined in which depressions the fluid capsule layers 11 are formed. In the course of tightening the bolt, the uneven washer is readily flattened under the applying load against the bolt whereby the fluid layer is broken to release the confined fluid through gaps between the bolt head, the washer and the pieces being joined. Through the indication of the fluid, an operator can readily recognize that the applied load is appropriate for joining the pieces without the need of any special tools or devices. By appropriately selecting the size and depth of the depression in the washer, a variety of strength of load can readily be achieved. Additionally, the production of load-indicating washer according to the present invention is possible at a relatively low cost and the visual inspection insures a better joining of the pieces against any fracture accidents due to an overload of the fastening. ""
hmmmm, *people*, need to start thinking rationally.....do you REALLY think the government would fly airplanes into their own building as part of sum greater scheme...crikey, , its obvious what u think, but im afraid more paranoid dillusion to be honest......
AlbertaghostCultural Wasteland, Alberta Canada5,914 posts
aspen12: NOW YOUR TALKING BOLTS NOT RIVETS RIVETS AND BOLTS ARE TWO DIFFERET FASTNERS OH GREAT ONE THERE IS THE BLA BLA AGAIN DO YOU BELEIVE ALL THAT CRAP
Nope. Washers. They can be used in both applications Aspen.
aspen12: OVER 50 % OF PEOPLE BELEIVE THE TOWERS WERE INSIDE JOB
Strange. This report from a source with a heck of a lot more credibility than you says the opposite.
In response to: Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Few people in the United States agree with some of the allegations that have been made in relation to the events of 9/11, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. Only 15 per cent of respondents think claims that the collapse of the World Trade Center was the result of a controlled demolition are credible.
In addition, 15 per cent think United Airlines Flight 93 was shot down, 13 per cent believe no airplane actually crashed at the Pentagon, and six per cent agree with the claim that no airplanes crashed into the World Trade Center and that the images seen on television were altered.
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I see. Now you're calling those who support this silly conspiracy liars. interesting turnaround to say the least.
Anyhow, where is this molten steel Aspen?
Aspen, you're at your entertaining silly best tonight I must say!