In response to: America’s COVID-19 testing has stalled, and that’s a big problemWe'll need a lot more testing capacity to get the coronavirus under control.Timothy B. Lee - 4/2/2020, 5:09 PM
One of America's biggest fumbles in the early weeks of the coronavirus crisis was inadequate testing. Thanks to a series of poor decisions by federal officials, the United States had far too little capacity to test for COVID-19 throughout the month of February, hampering our ability to contain the spread of the virus.America is finally testing for coronavirus in significant volumes
In early March, things seemed to be turning around. According to data from COVID Tracking Project, daily testing grew exponentially from a few hundred tests on March 5 to 107,000 tests last Friday, March 27.
But since then, progress has stalled. The US has been testing a bit over 100,000 people a day for the last six days—including 101,000 yesterday. And that's a cause for concern because the US will need to do considerably more testing to get its coronavirus outbreak under control.
Why testing matters
The most urgent need for testing is when a patient shows up at the hospital with coronavirus symptoms. Knowing if a patient actually has coronavirus or some other disease with similar symptoms determines what kinds of treatment are most appropriate. It also lets health care workers know whether they need to take precautions to avoid catching the coronavirus themselves.
Testing is also crucial for slowing the spread of coronavirus in the wider world. Ideally, when a patient is diagnosed with COVID-19, health officials would test everyone who has had close contact with that person. If someone else tested positive, officials would test all of their close contacts too. This process is known as contact tracing. Doing it on a wide-enough scale should allow officials to quickly identify and isolate almost everyone who has the disease.
You might not think that would matter now with so many people staying at home. But there are a fair number of people still working in essential industries who are at risk for catching COVID-19.
Amazon, for example, has had coronavirus cases at a growing number of fulfillment centers around the country. When these outbreaks occur, Amazon typically orders co-workers known to have had close contact to self-quarantine for 14 days. But those workers aren't necessarily tested. So if one of them passed COVID-19 on to someone else before their quarantine began, public officials wouldn't find out.
When to go back to work
So greater testing capacity would help improve treatment of patients and limit the spread of the coronavirus today. And it will become even more important once the current outbreak has peaked and public officials want to start sending people back to work.
If officials simply lifted quarantine restrictions without taking other precautions, the virus would resume its exponential growth and we'd wind up with a second large-scale outbreak. Aggressive contact tracing and quarantine policies are needed to make sure this doesn't happen. And that requires ample testing capacity.
Large-scale testing can also inform public officials' decision about when and how to lift restrictions. That's important because today's large-scale quarantine policy is having massive economic costs. The more data officials have about the spread of the coronavirus, the more precisely they can determine when and where it's safe to relax restrictions and the sooner they can let people go back to work.
Current testing levels aren’t enough
The countries that have been most successful at controlling their coronavirus outbreaks have done a lot more testing than the United States on a per capita basis.