tomcatwarneOPOcean City, Plumouth, Devon, England UK17,106 posts
If extraterrestrials are so common, why haven't they visited? Why haven't they communicated with us? Or, finally, why haven't they left behind some residue of their existence, such as heat or light or some other electromagnetic offal? Perhaps extraterrestrial life isn't so common after all. Or perhaps extraterrestrial life that gives rise to advanced civilizations isn't so common. If only astronomers could quantify those odds. If only they had a formula that accounted for all of the right variables related to extraterrestrial life. As it turns out, they do. In 1961, as a way to help convene the first serious conference on SETI, radio astronomer Frank Drake presented a formula, now known as the Drake Equation, that estimates the number of potential intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. The formula has generated much controversy, mainly because it leads to widely variable results. And yet it remains our one best way to quantify just how many extraterrestrials are out there trying to communicate.
tomcatwarneOPOcean City, Plumouth, Devon, England UK17,106 posts
Where,
N = The number of civilizations in The Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.
R* = The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
Within the limits of our existing technology, any practical search for distant intelligent life must necessarily be a search for some manifestation of a distant technology. In each of its last four decadal reviews, the National Research Council has emphasized the relevance and importance of searching for evidence of the electromagnetic signature of distant civilizations.
Besides illuminating the factors involved in such a search, the Drake Equation is a simple, effective tool for stimulating intellectual curiosity about the universe around us, for helping us to understand that life as we know it is the end product of a natural, cosmic evolution, and for making us realize how much we are a part of that universe. A key goal of the SETI Institute is to further high quality research that will yield additional information related to any of the factors of this fascinating equation.
I can understand Cox's premise, but fail to see why he is suggesting it, as he stated many years ago, that mankind on earth can only surmise using facts we have understood. Therefore by his own admission, our perception of life is not something that can be attached to the Universe.
That a species similar to humans is on another planet is highly unlikely, is a far more sensible way to have phrased his theory. That there is something, as yet unknown to mankind's science, existing as a community, on another planet is a statistical certainty. We just don't have the necessary "equipment" to see it/them. They could be standing next to you right now, but with our eyes only able to see certain reflections of light, the possibilities of alien "life" are endless.
tomcatwarneOPOcean City, Plumouth, Devon, England UK17,106 posts
rizlared: I can understand Cox's premise, but fail to see why he is suggesting it, as he stated many years ago, that mankind on earth can only surmise using facts we have understood. Therefore by his own admission, our perception of life is not something that can be attached to the Universe.
I think he meant life as advanced as we know it.
In response to: That a species similar to humans is on another planet is highly unlikely, is a far more sensible way to have phrased his theory. That there is something, as yet unknown to mankind's science, existing as a community, on another planet is a statistical certainty. We just don't have the necessary "equipment" to see it/them. They could be standing next to you right now, but with our eyes only able to see certain reflections of light, the possibilities of alien "life" are endless.
tomcatwarne: I think he meant life as advanced as we know it.
That is one theory
Another more realistic theory would be that this ‘scientist’ has seen far too many real bottlenecks on his bar-room table to be of any further use to the expansion of knowledge regarding both the universe and alien life.
raphael119washington d.c., District of Columbia USA5,181 posts
Obstinance_Works: Off-topic but having Putin and the new cold war will answer this question sooner. The last cold war(especially during its early phase and peak)was a golden age of scientific policy and functional and physical innovation. When there's a danger out there all sides come into agreement that science is a necessary tool for our survival, but when everything's perceived as safe and cushty then society directs itself away from science and progress and towards profit and indulgence.
That cold war stuff is pure, unmitigated poppycock. The last cold war brought us to the brink of total extinction at least five times. Frankly, its a true miracle the earth isnt a dead planet today. Its the only sane reason to believe in aliens currently on earth.
I dont know about aliens in the universe but it is entirely probable that races advanced enough to travel across the galaxy either go somewhere else or we simply cant detect them.
tomcatwarne: Despite the endless silence observed by SETI researchers, on clear nights, whenever we turn our eyes to the stars above, it's hard not to think about what could be out there. Or, more exactly, who could be out there. It’s easy to wonder if life exists on other worlds, and if there are other beings like us somewhere, pondering the same question.
In such a vast galaxy with so many billions of stars,it seems very unlikely we'd be alone. But if they are out there, how do we find them? The Milky Way alone is so huge that alien civilizations could exist relatively nearby and we'd never even know about them. And why hasn't SETI heard anything yet?
If it wasn’t for one fascinating incident back in 1977 the whole thing would be far too depressing. On August 15th of that year, Dr. Jerry Ehman was manning the Big Ear Radio Telescope owned by Ohio State University when he spotted a most peculiar anomaly. It appeared to be a radio wave signal, distinct from the usual background noise, coming our way from outer space and showing all the telltale signs of an interstellar communication attempt.
Ehman checked and rechecked the data, then noted the word “Wow!” beside the signal on the printout. From then on it became known as the Wow! Signal.ref google
It’s not that we can’t pick up the signals from other Planets using our technology, it’s that we can’t even comprehend what the beings from other Planets are or what they’re trying to do. It’s so beyond us that even if they really wanted to enlighten us, it would be like trying to teach ants about the internet.
raphael119washington d.c., District of Columbia USA5,181 posts
If the rapture is taking place god sure reversed his engines didny he? All he had to do was turn his head in the 60s and 70s and let us blow the earth up.
tomcatwarneOPOcean City, Plumouth, Devon, England UK17,106 posts
michael63ca: It’s not that we can’t pick up the signals from other Planets using our technology, it’s that we can’t even comprehend what the beings from other Planets are or what they’re trying to do. It’s so beyond us that even if they really wanted to enlighten us, it would be like trying to teach ants about the internet.
tomcatwarne: What evidence do you have for this remark????
What evidence do you have that they have not been here, or tried communicating? for all we know they could be doing the same thing humans are, sending out signals and listening, only we don't have the technology for communicating that they have and likewise they don't have the technology for communicating we have.
twazzle70THE GORGOYNES......, East Riding of Yorkshire, England UK689 posts
I personally believe humankind does not know as much as we think/they think it knows regarding such matters. Ive always found it hard to believe that with the billions of other planets,the enormity of the universe,galaxies etc etc that only our earth has intelligent life form,whilst every other entity just floats around for whatever reasons. I think there is far far more to the universe than we can comprehend....I think....I.M.O..
tomcatwarne: The biological process which lead to intelligent life on earth was a fluke that is unlikely to have been repeated anywhere else in the universe, claims Professor Brian Cox. The presenter and scientist blames a series of 'evolutionary bottlenecks' for the lack of extraterrestrial life on other planets, despite there being a mind-bogglingly vast number of them in the galaxy.
Humanity miraculously overcame them in a chance binding of two single cells merging somewhere in the mists of time, he said.
'There is only one advanced technological civilisation in this galaxy and there has only ever been one - and that's us. We are unique.
'It's a dizzying thought. There are billions of planets out there, surely there must have been a second genesis?
'But we must be careful because the story of life on this planet shows that the transition from single-celled life to complex life may not have been inevitable.' He made the claims in an episode of BBC's Human Universe, adding that yet another freak occurrence - the meteor which wiped out the dinosaurs - allowed mammals and ultimately humanity to dominate the planet.
On the subject of the genesis of complex life, he added: 'We still struggle to understand how this happened. It's incredibly unusual. 'We're confident this only happened once in the oceans of the primordial earth.Life here did squeeze through.'
Mars is being studied intensely now. There are theories that it is either an evolving earth-like planet, or that it has been, and is now dormant. The terrain mimics deserts in our southwest. Undeniably there is water at both poles, and frost collects on the dunes. Moons orbiting both Jupiter and Saturn have earth-like characteristics. I believe it is entirely possible. Do you believe the universe is infinite? If so, think of the question about the possibility of life elsewhere: If the universe is, indeed infinite, then there would naturally be no chance for there NOT to be life elsewhere, because there is no end to the search. I know this sounds a little 'out there'--but the fact the we are even here is so astounding in itself then there must be other living planets. (It's so unbelievable it has GOT to be true!)
truheart1941brentwood, Essex, England UK25,171 posts
rohaan: Mars is being studied intensely now. There are theories that it is either an evolving earth-like planet, or that it has been, and is now dormant. The terrain mimics deserts in our southwest. Undeniably there is water at both poles, and frost collects on the dunes. Moons orbiting both Jupiter and Saturn have earth-like characteristics. I believe it is entirely possible. Do you believe the universe is infinite? If so, think of the question about the possibility of life elsewhere: If the universe is, indeed infinite, then there would naturally be no chance for there NOT to be life elsewhere, because there is no end to the search. I know this sounds a little 'out there'--but the fact the we are even here is so astounding in itself then there must be other living planets. (It's so unbelievable it has GOT to be true!)
rohaan: Mars is being studied intensely now. There are theories that it is either an evolving earth-like planet, or that it has been, and is now dormant. The terrain mimics deserts in our southwest. Undeniably there is water at both poles, and frost collects on the dunes. Moons orbiting both Jupiter and Saturn have earth-like characteristics. I believe it is entirely possible. Do you believe the universe is infinite? If so, think of the question about the possibility of life elsewhere: If the universe is, indeed infinite, then there would naturally be no chance for there NOT to be life elsewhere, because there is no end to the search. I know this sounds a little 'out there'--but the fact the we are even here is so astounding in itself then there must be other living planets. (It's so unbelievable it has GOT to be true!)
You are most likely correct. The size of the universe has been updated. The Hubble and even more.
tomcatwarne: If extraterrestrials are so common, why haven't they visited? Why haven't they communicated with us? Or, finally, why haven't they left behind some residue of their existence, such as heat or light or some other electromagnetic offal?
Why would they want to visit (or even acknowledge out existence) a hateful primitive world like ours? When you vacation do you go off to live with cannibals? I am sure they have much more interesting fun filled places than this rathole to hang out in.
Second part, if they lived only billion light years away (half the current known distance of the universe) from the Earth and a million years ago developed their mighty civilization and a galactic empire (their galaxy, not ours), in only .999 billion years you will notice the heatl, light and other electromagnetic offal of their mighty empire.
All speculation about why we can't see them if they exist now is totally ignoring the slow speed of the light we use to see them with.
Noting also there are several 'galactic lenses' which COULD be caused by dark matter distorting gravitational waves, OR they could be the result of a ship traveling at (or very near) C speed passing between us and the stars we see as being distorted as those ships would have near infinite mass and light waves would bend in their direction and that causes the lensing effect our astronomers observe. So there is your offal, which Cox ignores because he has a preconception belief we are unique and important, but we ain't. We are just more funny bugs under the old carpet as far as the Universe is concerned.
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Perhaps extraterrestrial life isn't so common after all. Or perhaps extraterrestrial life that gives rise to advanced civilizations isn't so common. If only astronomers could quantify those odds. If only they had a formula that accounted for all of the right variables related to extraterrestrial life. As it turns out, they do. In 1961, as a way to help convene the first serious conference on SETI, radio astronomer Frank Drake presented a formula, now known as the Drake Equation, that estimates the number of potential intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. The formula has generated much controversy, mainly because it leads to widely variable results. And yet it remains our one best way to quantify just how many extraterrestrials are out there trying to communicate.
ref Frank Drake.