revealer24 Forum Posts (985)

Create your own music...

Haha... There are way too many things to work out before we can even think to have a wedding...

Besides... I haven't got a "yes" yet

She told me I can only get it in person

Create your own music...

Create your own music...

Good to have a son like that :) You can be proud of him.

Create your own music...

Hi Martia, yes, we are going very well, we seem to be an exceptionally good match. She is visiting me in about two weeks and will stay for a few months :)

Happy times for me :)

Make your own music in no time...

Sure, it is good for fun, but nothing professional :)

Create your own music...

Compared to other music composing software where you either place the individual sounds or played them in on a keyboard... in aviary you drag blocks with complete instruments to the track. To me it was just a few ;)

Make your own music in no time...

You better try it yourself (http://www.aviary.com/online/audio-editor). I think the way it works is they slice up real music and you just drag them to the track and order them to your liking. Very basic and simple. I don't claim this as my music as I did it with a few clicks. But it is fun to use and it is easy to knock up something nice.

Create your own music...

It is weird, what the tor software does is it redirects you through one of their anonymiser proxy and it appears as if you were from another country with a different IP address. It can slow down web browsing, but that is the price you pay for anonymity.

Sure, send it any way you can...

Create your own music...

You can send it through the website...

Create your own music...

Thanks :)

Create your own music...

To be honest I didn't read the Aviary licensing agreement. I guess it says something like "don't claim it as your composition" because the music blocks are sliced from various musics. But it is a lot of fun :)

I will happily help you out if you need a music clip.

Make your own music in no time...

Here is a short sample I knocked up with a few clicks just for fun with the Aviary Audio Editor. It is free, a lot of fun and very easy to use. Make your own music of any style in no time:

Create your own music...

Here is a short sample I knocked up with a few clicks just for fun with the Aviary Audio Editor. It is free, a lot of fun and very easy to use. Make your own of any style in no time

RE: Financial Armageddon

Yes, China is in deep trouble. In 2008 the government had to deal with social unrest in two provinces. They are the factory of the world, but with virtually no internal market they are fragile, their economy depends on external markets. A lot of wealth will evaporate in the coming deflation. A Chinese friend of mine said, this will be good for the country because 99% of the population lives on a dollar a day anyway, they will not be affected.

RE: Financial Armageddon

If anyone wants a taste of what is coming, the hasty manner by which the law that allows the deployment of the military inside the US and that they will be able to detain US citizens and legal residents indefinitely have been passed in the US senate, gives an idea:



Also, here are two videos from the IMF chief:

IMF Chief warns of another great depression


IMF chief Christine Lagarde warns that global economic outlook is 'gloomy'


As I was driving today in the ABC radio they were talking about the chance for a global depression all the time. I have been saying this since 2007. People thought I was too gloomy, too negative. Nobody listened.

RE: Financial Armageddon

I think if the markets was not manipulated and speculative there would be no reason to rent for anyone. People would be able to easily afford to buy their own homes.

There is a lot of talk about improving affordability, but everything the government does works against it. For example, the doubling of the first home buyer grant led to skyrocketing prices. Then negative gearing is supposed to work towards increasing the supply of rental properties, but instead, it allows investors to outbid first home buyers (leading to higher prices), who in turn will get stuck in the rental market. This leads to higher demand for rental properties, which means higher rents. So higher real estate prices lead to higher rents, and higher rents to even higher prices because investors can afford to take out even larger loans. The higher prices create positive equity in the rental property that investors use as a collateral to buy another property.

I would abolish the first home buyers grant and provide support through guaranteed low interest rate instead. I'd also abolish negative gearing and make it illegal for councils to limit the release of new land for development. There is plenty of land, it belongs to the people, make it available for the people.

John Howard once said he didn't think Australians would complain about high property prices. But if a 3br home only cost $150k, you would be able to upgrade to a 4br home for an extra $30k. But if a 3br one is $450k, you will need another $100k to upgrade. And don't forget all the related expenses.

Who is laughing? Anyone who takes a percentage of your money. Governments, real estate agents, etc. The only time you actually benefit from high prices is if you sell and buy no more, keep the money. Else it is harmful. There is way too much money tied up in speculation. That money should go into manufacturing, research, mining and other creative activities that actually make something.

But what we have today is legalised daylight robbery. We are all being robbed in various ways. And it is very sophisticated, so people think this is how it should be.

RE: Financial Armageddon

I saw an article a week or so ago that proved that it is the land component that got significantly inflated. And that cannot be sustained for long in a country that has virtually unlimited land. The price is artificially high, caused by local governments not releasing them.

I remember a few years ago when so many people moved to QLD there was a lot of talk that the council should release more land in the outskirts of Brisbane. But then business groups stood up that it would cause prices to fall in the city and recommended the building of high rises instead. In a so-called free economy real estate should not be so manipulated to please interest groups.

If instead of high speed broadband we invested the 40 billion dollars in high speed train, people could move to the bush and still get to work in the city. But that would lead to price falls, so as long as we have real estate bubble there will be no high speed train.

RE: Financial Armageddon

During normal economic times this is true. But what if a stock market panic forces investors to sell their gold reserves and that will cause gold to fall from about 1600 USD to 1400? Will Asians hang on to their gold reserves or will they try to liquidate them at a still good price? And what if the price falls to 1200? At a particular point they will liquidate, which will accelerate the fall.

This economy is self feeding. When prices go up investors jump in which causes prices to go further up. When prices fall they jump out that causes further fall. The trend only changes when social mood turns around. And that occurs at the rock bottom (turning to bullish) or at the top (turning to bearish).

RE: Financial Armageddon

I have the dotcom crash in mind when the price of gold dropped to about 400 AUD by the end of 1999. Since then the price of gold continually increased that shows that in real money the price of everything fell.

Here is a booklet on gold and silver from EWI. Keep in mind I remember once they predicted that gold would fall and after a brief drop it went further up.


I do not know where gold and silver will go. All I am saying is that when stock markets fall dramatically the price of precious metals also fall. Once they fall significantly (bearish mood) that may convince investors that the fall will continue and they will liquidate their stock. This will cause the price of gold to crash and the dollar to gain.

RE: Financial Armageddon

Panic is only the reflection of the social mood. When the society is confident about the future there cannot be panic selling. People only panic when they realise there is no more up, and there is a long way down. Then they all try to sell at once that causes prices to fall fast, and this triggers panic.

RE: Financial Armageddon

Ops! The two charts on Yahoo are shortened like this:

RE: Financial Armageddon

It will be interesting to see how gold will actually go. The difference between the 80's and today is that today we are sitting on the top of the credit bubble. Just about everything is a bubble because of it. Once it pops and panic sets in, gold only has one way to go as investors must sell it to cover their losses elsewhere.

Check the following charts:

Notice the USD was on the increase in the whole of September:


During the same period gold was falling (set the date range to 1 year and the currency to USD and then to AUD). The price of gold didn't start to increase until 20/11/11.


The AUD/gold chart shows that once the USD started to go up against other currencies because stock markets were falling (there is a lag), gold also dropped. Here is the Dow Jones:


This foreshadows what will happen when European countries start to default and the dominoes start to fall. Once panic sets in deflation will follow.

RE: Financial Armageddon

In times of huge falls investors have to sell their gold reserves to cover their losses in other areas. This will lead to the USD rising and precious metals falling.

In my opinion gold is a bubble.

Super funds can quite possibly go belly up, like in the dotcom crash, and your money will evaporate. I am not sure if there is a way to take any of it out...

RE: Financial Armageddon

Putting the super into cash is a sensible thing, but it is only safe as long as the super funds don't go bankrupt. Apparently some of them did in the past, so if you have a chance to take the cash out you will be better off. If I have a property I would have sold it in 2007 even though prices were higher in 2010.

I guess it is impossible to prepare for every possible problem. Buying food and clothes may also make sense. We import far too many things and if the crisis strikes international trade will quite possibly collapse.

Can anyone list what products we manufacture?

RE: Financial Armageddon

Martia, I listened to the ABC radio today as I was driving. A financial analyst said Europe may collapse and the Euro may cease to exist as Europe is heading for depression - and it will affect us. He added that the GFC of 2008 will feel like strolling in the park compared to what is coming.

You have the choice - you can ignore the forecast and it will take you by surprise, or you can prepare to face it as quick as you can.

RE: Financial Armageddon

Keep in mind that with prices rents will also fall.

RE: Financial Armageddon

I saw somewhere that when the real estate is not speculated the median house price is three times the median income. Today it is 7-9 times. It means during the coming great depression prices will have to fall to 3 times the median income. Add to this that in the previous great depression income dropped by about 30-40%, therefore, median house price will have to follow even that drop before we hit rock bottom.

Now we read in the media that real estate prices are about 20% overvalued. I think that is wishful thinking. Once the dominoes will start falling and countries going belly up, the world economy will not be there to support these extremely high prices.

RE: Financial Armageddon

I do not know where we are going. I think there will be civil wars, civil unrest more and more as we slide deeper into the crisis. Governments will go to either the ultra right or ultra left to control people.

I can only speak from experience regarding communist. They did not think that everyone's time and effort were equal. There were income differences, but I think it was not enough to encourage greater productivity. The problem was rather a corrupt implementation. However, the society itself was a lot healthier than in the West. And here I am not talking about the fear and lack of freedom, but people had a future. You could save for a home and buy it for cash. My parents borrowed from relatives with no interest, and repaid it in a short time. There was free health care for everyone and free child care, education. There was no income tax, only company tax. Communities were healthy and helping each other. They didn't experience the decadence of the West. These are the good things.

Of course, there were a lot of bad things. Corrupt officials, acid bath for the opposition, Russians using Hungary to borrow money, no freedom of speech, etc. But today Australia is more of a police state than during communism thanks to the laws brought in during the war on terror years. There is a lot more surveillance. They monitor all our emails and phone conversations without our knowledge, our transactions, all our movements. We have perceived freedom, no true freedom. I think, in communism we had a lot more freedom in many respect. Sure, we could not organise ourselves into an opposition party, there was no freedom of speech (though we freely talked about everything with friends) and lacked the ability to visit the West whenever we wanted. But we all had our own homes, hardly anyone rented, and if they did, only for a short time. Everyone was employed as it was illegal and a crime not to work. So there was internal unemployment within companies. People were employed but had not enough work for the whole day. And also there were only a very few homeless people. Very few. I only saw *one* in my entire life in Hungary.

So I contend that there are good and bad things in all systems. None of them are perfect. Neither democracy, not communism. I'd like to see a new system emerging that exploit people' talents and abilities rather than forcing them into a common mould. A society like that would flourish beyond imagination.

And happiness should measure the greatness of a society, not profit.

RE: Financial Armageddon

:-) Thanks. My fear is that humankind will not learn from this crisis and will do the same and go on to another, greater collapse until most of the population of the world will be wiped out by the most destructive wars ever fought for the control of resources. Forget the fairy tale that we are the good guys and try to get rid of the bad guys. War on terror, and they hate freedom and stuff like that. It is about controlling resources.

EWI expects this current collapse to be the biggest in 300 years followed by 60-70 years of stagnation. Property investing will be a dirty word. All this because of the "trickle down economy" Reagan introduced, when the rich were given a lot of money in various ways. People forget history.

Even in Australia the government wants to give businesses more tax cuts. Businesses want the reduction of wages. Why? How will these bring a single more cashed-up customer through the door? The cancer is speculation that among others drove up real estate prices and commercial rents, and businesses must build that into the price. This causes inflation together with perceived wealth. Then the interest rate was increased that penalised the wrong people, the home owners. They didn't cause inflation.

Perceived wealth is a huge problem because when real estate prices increased, the equity in the property increased. This led to more speculation as investors used it to buy more property. People also took up huge loans using the equity as a collateral and made big purchases. This played into inflation as this created an artificially high demand. Putting the interest rate up had no effect on them, nor brought the commercial rent down for businesses. It hit the wrong people who were innocent and it robbed them.

Now the 99% are pretty much impoverished. I met business owners at the local food bank, they said it has never been so hard. A Centrelink officer told me if you work for one hour a week you are not counted as unemployed for statistical purposes, even though you receive the full dole payment. Convert all part time work to full time to get the real unemployment rate. Probably it is closer to 12-14% than the 5.2% lie we are told.

RE: Financial Armageddon

Throwing money to people will not cause a turn-around by itself as they will rather use it to pay off their debt. They will only spend if they feel positive about the future. This is where social mood comes in. However, I am convinced that social mood would be affected if the wealth disparity was reduced to 10% - or I'd rather say, social mood will only change once we reach that level through deflation.

I think we need a new economic system where speculation is excluded. Then all the money would have to go into financing creative activity, that creates real wealth.

I agree that when the rich has too much money they try to make even more. Nothing is ever enough. But rather than just hoarding it they engage in speculation and drive up prices for everyone. Legalised robbery? I think so. When the price of rice was forced up it created hunger in many parts of the world, when at the same time there were huge amounts of unsaleable rice in storage in India that nobody could afford to buy. So there was no real reason for the hunger.

Speculation leads to the daylight robbery of the 99% that eventually leads to economic collapse and even to world wars. I would ban it. It is destructive to human life. I prefer the definition of the value given by Marx, even though I strongly dislike the communist system I grew up in: "The value of goods is determined by the useful work precipitated in them." This eliminates speculation, and the lack of speculation eliminates financial collapses.

Interestingly, the small companies are the most dynamic and innovative. Once a company becomes large enough they will try to squeeze more dollars out of the existing products by integrating them, providing small upgrades and controlling the market. See Microsoft.

Yes, democracy never existed, just as communism never existed. We have only seen corrupt implementations. Marx derived his ideas from Judaism's teaching about the Messianic Kingdom. I think it is great (though I don't know it in detail) with some modifications, but incentive must be added. Lenin corrupted this original idea and what came out of it is a shocking implementation.