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Politics American Missile Defenses and China’s Wayward Space Lab: How Much Danger Does Tiangong-1 Reentry Pose
March 29, 2018 13 min read Download Report

Dean Cheng
Senior Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center
Dean brings knowledge of China's military and space capabilities as a research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs.
SUMMARY Sometime in spring 2018, the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 will re-enter the atmosphere. Exactly when—and where—is unclear, and could be dangerous. It is also unclear how much control the Chinese have over Tiangong-1. It is possible that Beijing, if unable to control the spacecraft, would cooperate with the U.S. and other countries in mitigating its effects. In that case, the United States and other nations could provide additional space tracking data. If China does not, or cannot, provide information about its ability to control the space lab’s final trajectory, and if it has no national contingency plans on mitigating any possible damage, the United States and its partners should make clear that they will safeguard human life, and also protect their national security.
KEY TAKEAWAYSIn the next several weeks, the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 will reenter the atmosphere. Exactly when—and where—is unclear, and could be dangerous. If China does not provide information about Tiangong-1’s final trajectory or contingency plans, the U.S. and its allies must plan their own defense. It is unclear how much control the Chinese have over Tiangong-1’s reentry. Copied
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Sometime in the next several weeks, the Chinese space lab Tiangong-1 will re-enter the atmosphere. The uncertainty of just when this 8.5-ton spacecraft will re-enter reflects the remarkable possibility that this reentry is uncontrolled. And just as it is unclear when it will re-enter, it is also unclear where it will do so. Although the likelihood is high that it will be over water (if only because most of the Earth’s surface is covered in it), that will be small comfort should it come down over a populated area.

China’s Manned Space Program

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expressed interest in manned space flight since the earliest days of the Space Age. Efforts relating to manned space were incorporated in 1986 into Plan 863, the national investment plan for high technology. The PRC’s current manned space program, Project 921, took shape in the late 1980s. In 1988, several hundred Chinese specialists began to winnow a variety of possible designs down to two rival approaches: a space shuttle–type craft and a more traditional space capsule design.

In 1989, the merits of the two different designs were debated. The capsule design ultimately won, thanks in part to the political support of leading Chinese scientist Qian Xuesen and in part because of the recognition that China’s technological foundations at the time were inadequate for pursuing the more advanced space shuttle approach.1
Shu Wen, “Shenzhou-VI” Background and Story (Beijing, PRC: Chinese Language Press, 2005), pp. 216 and 217, and Zuo Saichun, Chinese Astronaut Flight Documentary (Beijing, PRC: People’s Publishing House, 2003), p. 34.
In July 1989, Chinese technical leaders decided that any near-term Chinese manned space effort would pursue a space capsule design. A year later, a design review for the spacecraft was apparently completed.2
Shu, “Shenzhou-VI” Background and Story, p. 217.


Before the manned space program could proceed, however, China’s top political leaders had to give their permission for the then-unprecedented expenditure of billions of renminbi.3
$1 = 5.514 RMB in 1992. Zuo Saichun, Chinese Astronaut Flight Documentary (Be