StressFree: How do you know Obama has no idea what to do? He gets all kinds of ideas from his team, and the military surely has ideas and plans ready to go. But the US is pretty spread out right now as we are engaged in this war on terror in two countries. Kim conveniently pulled this stunt off at the right time. I'll be honest and say that this would not have happened during the Bush presidency, but then again Kim even ignored Bush on a lot of matters....
They said the same thing about Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis...
I have confidence that Obama will do the best thing for everybody's good.
Iran last missile had a range of 1200 miles. And the NKorean missile was to go for about the same 1200 miles. One more boost in range.....and they are ICBMs. Not only that both have orbitting abilities presently.
Orbit the warhead, then drop it out of orbit where you want it to fall.
There are ways to reach the US other than a straight atmosphere shot. Most consider this the old and slow way that gives a long advanced warning because radars. But it is a doable solution with orbitting missiles to reach the US.
Iran last missile had a range of 1200 miles. And the NKorean missile was to go for about the same 1200 miles. One more boost in range.....and they are ICBMs. Not only that both have orbitting abilities presently.
Orbit the warhead, then drop it out of orbit where you want it to fall.
There are ways to reach the US other than a straight atmosphere shot. Most consider this the old and slow way that gives a long advanced warning because radars. But it is a doable solution with orbitting missiles to reach the US.
Iran last missile had a range of 1200 miles. And the NKorean missile was to go for about the same 1200 miles. One more boost in range.....and they are ICBMs. Not only that both have orbitting abilities presently.
Orbit the warhead, then drop it out of orbit where you want it to fall.
There are ways to reach the US other than a straight atmosphere shot. Most consider this the old and slow way that gives a long advanced warning because radars. But it is a doable solution with orbitting missiles to reach the US.
Tom, it will just be another country with a nuclear arsenal. I remember all the fears during the Cold War...nothing happened because of good diplomacy. North Korea is not going to immediately bomb the US. There is nothing for them to gain in doing that.
Iran and North Korea are about 20 years away from extending their ranges to the US...
StressFree: How do you know Obama has no idea what to do? He gets all kinds of ideas from his team, and the military surely has ideas and plans ready to go. But the US is pretty spread out right now as we are engaged in this war on terror in two countries. Kim conveniently pulled this stunt off at the right time. I'll be honest and say that this would not have happened during the Bush presidency, but then again Kim even ignored Bush on a lot of matters....
They said the same thing about Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis...
I have confidence that Obama will do the best thing for everybody's good.
A lot think tankers have put alot of thought into these developing situations, Stress. RAND Corp., The Strategic Studies Group, The War College, and many others, even independants like myself.
Remember early in the Dude threads....I mentioned "wiggle room"...that guys like Kim and Pres. A....you could not give 'wiggle room' to?
My take is....when President Obama....decided to go mano a mano with Kim .....the NKoreans saw it as 'wiggle room'.
Look what Pres A is doing with President Obama desire to talk. Pres A wants to do a 'debate' in the UN. What is decided or agreed to in a debate? They are not stating political positions....not for reaching agreements. Pres A wants wiggle room right now....that is why he asking for wiggle room with international opinion from a debate.
He wants the broad international community to decide if Iran has a right to nuclear materials. Of course the braod international community will say yes. Many countries want nuclear material programs. They will not limit their right to have them.
If President Obama take Pres A up on the UN debate....he truely is showing inexperience. JMO. If President Obama cannot squesse Kim like a tube of toothpaste...eg. take away his wiggle room... after Kim's nuc and missile tests....again very inexpereinced showing.
By the way....some DEMs in DC are talking arming Japan with nuc in repsonse to NKorea tests. Asking Japan to increase it military forces.
On the outside this look like a good solution. On the regional balance of power....it is a real unbalancer. China still remembers Japan's WWII activities. Japan with nucs.....scares them to no end....was a way to break the group of 6 and force China into NKorea's corner.
StressFree: Tom, it will just be another country with a nuclear arsenal. I remember all the fears during the Cold War...nothing happened because of good diplomacy. North Korea is not going to immediately bomb the US. There is nothing for them to gain in doing that.
Iran and North Korea are about 20 years away from extending their ranges to the US...
Sorry Stress......that is a negative. All they need to do is add another boost section to the rocket.
But I do admit....the real threat is not a missile strike. That is national suciede with coutries that have more nucs, as the US, NATO and Isreal have.
Indyfella: I would never buy a car from the government.Most likely, I'd buy a Ford...at least they don't need government handouts. I admire them for that!
Great idea! I will consider not buying stamps from them as well. Actually, fits in well with my plan of not buying either party's BS for years now. Right!
YewEye: Great idea! I will consider not buying stamps from them as well. Actually, fits in well with my plan of not buying either party's BS for years now. Right!
I buy very few stamps. I bill pay online. Usually, I'll find a carrier other than the US government, if it's a package.
I have no interest in the government making money off me.
ttom500: A lot think tankers have put alot of thought into these developing situations, Stress. RAND Corp., The Strategic Studies Group, The War College, and many others, even independants like myself.
Remember early in the Dude threads....I mentioned "wiggle room"...that guys like Kim and Pres. A....you could not give 'wiggle room' to?
My take is....when President Obama....decided to go mano a mano with Kim .....the NKoreans saw it as 'wiggle room'.
Look what Pres A is doing with President Obama desire to talk. Pres A wants to do a 'debate' in the UN. What is decided or agreed to in a debate? They are not stating political positions....not for reaching agreements. Pres A wants wiggle room right now....that is why he asking for wiggle room with international opinion from a debate.
He wants the broad international community to decide if Iran has a right to nuclear materials. Of course the braod international community will say yes. Many countries want nuclear material programs. They will not limit their right to have them.
If President Obama take Pres A up on the UN debate....he truely is showing inexperience. JMO. If President Obama cannot squesse Kim like a tube of toothpaste...eg. take away his wiggle room... after Kim's nuc and missile tests....again very inexpereinced showing.
By the way....some DEMs in DC are talking arming Japan with nuc in repsonse to NKorea tests. Asking Japan to increase it military forces.
On the outside this look like a good solution. On the regional balance of power....it is a real unbalancer. China still remembers Japan's WWII activities. Japan with nucs.....scares them to no end....was a way to break the group of 6 and force China into NKorea's corner.
Good points Tom...I do remember your wiggle room post even many months ago.
I believe that getting int'l support is the only or best option Obama has right now. He's going through on his word.
Also, I believe that just about every European country condemns N Korea and Iran from having nukes. They are not on board from what I have heard.
In any case, alliances are key right now, because the US is really spread out. I think the US military is in a tough situation as well and may not know what to do. This is new territory now. The US cannot afford to spread themselves out any more. The only way to do this, if some alliances would join in. And Obama asking and getting their ideas and support demonstrates that he is a solid administrator. The US is not the only important country in the world and will no longer use the Bush way of doing things any longer, as that only created more hate and divide around the world.
StressFree: Tom, it will just be another country with a nuclear arsenal. I remember all the fears during the Cold War...nothing happened because of good diplomacy. North Korea is not going to immediately bomb the US. There is nothing for them to gain in doing that.
Iran and North Korea are about 20 years away from extending their ranges to the US...
Stress, know the second reason the cold war was called cold? Sure most think that it was because it never went hot. But they were calling cold before it ended....and none know it would not go hot?:-)
Here is the second reason it got the name. Because both side were coldly analytical to assessing the abilities of each other. Each time one got the least advantage....the other quickly adjusted and caught up.
As the nuclear club grows in number, and new technology of delivery, of stealth, of partnering occur (like NKorea selling a nuc to Iran)....the cold analytical assessments of the cold war cannot be done. It is simply to complex to assess.
Guarrantteed someone will miscalculate, under estimate, fudge a arms agreement, develop that technology they think is unstoppable.
It was hard when one only had the WARSAW Pact and NATO...China and SEATO. But this growing club of nuclear countries? With vastly different ideologies...well you have played poker in the club house.....the odds of drawing simple high pair and odds of keeping the world from doing a nuclear tango...the odds on the dance seem better to me.
ttom500: Stress, know the second reason the cold war was called cold? Sure most think that it was because it never went hot. But they were calling cold before it ended....and none know it would not go hot?:-)
Here is the second reason it got the name. Because both side were coldly analytical to assessing the abilities of each other. Each time one got the least advantage....the other quickly adjusted and caught up.
As the nuclear club grows in number, and new technology of delivery, of stealth, of partnering occur (like NKorea selling a nuc to Iran)....the cold analytical assessments of the cold war cannot be done. It is simply to complex to assess.
Guarrantteed someone will miscalculate, under estimate, fudge a arms agreement, develop that technology they think is unstoppable.
It was hard when one only had the WARSAW Pact and NATO...China and SEATO. But this growing club of nuclear countries? With vastly different ideologies...well you have played poker in the club house.....the odds of drawing simple high pair and odds of keeping the world from doing a nuclear tango...the odds on the dance seem better to me.
Thanks Tom...you made me laugh with your first paragraph.
Great post and very true, especially about new technologies developing and the nature of cold analytical assessments. You raise great and valid points.
If things don't change, then your worst case scenario just may manifest. No arguing that...
StressFree: Good points Tom...I do remember your wiggle room post even many months ago.
I believe that getting int'l support is the only or best option Obama has right now. He's going through on his word.
Also, I believe that just about every European country condemns N Korea and Iran from having nukes. They are not on board from what I have heard.
In any case, alliances are key right now, because the US is really spread out. I think the US military is in a tough situation as well and may not know what to do. This is new territory now. The US cannot afford to spread themselves out any more. The only way to do this, if some alliances would join in. And Obama asking and getting their ideas and support demonstrates that he is a solid administrator. The US is not the only important country in the world and will no longer use the Bush way of doing things any longer, as that only created more hate and divide around the world.
We are spread.....but what the heck.....if we were not.....just means people would be telling us to go home Yankee.:-) We have some military tricks up our sleeves......I hope some we don't have to use. And we have some technologies that are force multipliers and intelligence gainers.
So a NKorea invasion of the South does not concern me much.
But the ruling group in NKorea has gotten use to the 'good life'. They daily see great proverty around them in the country. That nuc has to be seen as a meal ticket to them. Sell some, put the money in the swiss bank account and keep the good life for a little longer.
None have been in these waters before. Not the NKoreans, SKoreans, or any major player...this is all new water for all. The unfortunate thing about new waters....no one has map of where the reefs are. That old 'full speed ahead' and 'damm the torpedos' bravo can sink you faster than a Skhval torpedo can.
I have a friend in South Korea. He is a Lt. Col. Army. Played on my kid brother's ball team....a great class D club in the mid 70s....in 3 season....they were 52-6 in record. I saw him and his staff last fall. He said they were doing 6 day weeks of 14- 18 hour days. So yes we are stretched.
But so are the NKoreans. Kim has been ill. He looks like a minateur remake of a bad Frankenstien. His countries proverty has some talking revolt there a year ago. The anti war and the anti gov't groups in SKorea....have gone strangely quiet the couple of weeks. SKorea has a vast manpower pool to mobilize for war, if given time. They still have manatory draft there. I am pretty sure.
Sorry to disappoint you but I have no doubts about my manhood.
How about you peaches? Can you say the same for yourself?
Rhetorical question, no need to answer. Just stomp around your apartment punching at the air pretending you’re beating me up for not respecting your studmuffin status.
ttom500: We are spread.....but what the heck.....if we were not.....just means people would be telling us to go home Yankee.:-) We have some military tricks up our sleeves......I hope some we don't have to use. And we have some technologies that are force multipliers and intelligence gainers.
So a NKorea invasion of the South does not concern me much.
But the ruling group in NKorea has gotten use to the 'good life'. They daily see great proverty around them in the country. That nuc has to be seen as a meal ticket to them. Sell some, put the money in the swiss bank account and keep the good life for a little longer.
None have been in these waters before. Not the NKoreans, SKoreans, or any major player...this is all new water for all. The unfortunate thing about new waters....no one has map of where the reefs are. That old 'full speed ahead' and 'damm the torpedos' bravo can sink you faster than a Skhval torpedo can.
I have a friend in South Korea. He is a Lt. Col. Army. Played on my kid brother's ball team....a great class D club in the mid 70s....in 3 season....they were 52-6 in record. I saw him and his staff last fall. He said they were doing 6 day weeks of 14- 18 hour days. So yes we are stretched.
But so are the NKoreans. Kim has been ill. He looks like a minateur remake of a bad Frankenstien. His countries proverty has some talking revolt there a year ago. The anti war and the anti gov't groups in SKorea....have gone strangely quiet the couple of weeks. SKorea has a vast manpower pool to mobilize for war, if given time. They still have manatory draft there. I am pretty sure.
I'm waiting for China to get it's fill of Kim. If he starts looking like too much of a liability it seems there could be a correction made.
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I'm no longer the pope either.