In response to: Is the new coronavirus like flu? No. It kills 26 times more – PortugalMarch 6, 2020
The Director-General of Health, Graça Freitas, compared the appearance of the new coronavirus subtype, Covid-19, to the outbreak of a common flu, saying that the Directorate-General for Health would be working withwith a scenario identical to that which existed in 2009, when influenza A – also known as Influenza A / H1N1. The pandemic took less than a month to arrive in Portugal and caused 122 deaths in the country, with 166,922 cases registered until August 2010 – when the end of the pandemic was declared.
The data say, however, that the new type of coronavirus is not only a disease that spreads faster than common flu or influenza A, but is also a more lethal virus.Three times more viral than a common fluA common flu has a transmissibility of 1.3 points, which means that every 10 infected people pass the disease to 13 people. The number is used to measure the potential of an epidemic, translating the degree of reproduction of the disease: the higher the number, the greater the degree of exposure and threat of the disease.
In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic had a transmissibility of 1.5 and could not be contained, with estimates suggesting that 11–21% of the world's population has been infected. Initial studies on the new coronavirus, Covid-19, pointed to a 2-3 point transmissibility, more than double the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which today is just one of the four types of common flu.
A graph showing the evolution of COVID-19 and H1N1 in its first 31 days shows that three times more cases of the new coronavirus have been confirmed in relation to influenza A in the first 31 days.
But the latest mathematical model by researchers at Xiamen University in China, published in the scientific journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty points to estimates of transmission of isolated surfaces in humans of 2.3 and 3.58 in person-to-person transmissions – which explains the dizzying rise in the number of cases of infection.
This last number, the most worrying, translates into a transmissibility almost three times greater than a common flu and concerns the introduction of an affected individual in susceptible environments: closed spaces, with a large population or without ventilation. For comparison, common flu infected 20 to 30 million people in the European Union last year.
In comparison with known outbreaks of other coronavirus subtypes, the transmissibility of Covid-19 in environments is greater than that seen in 2012 with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), from 0.8 to 1.3, but less than that recorded in 2002 with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 2.9 points.
Covid-19 is 26 times more deadly than a common fluAlthough H1N1 affected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, its mortality rate was, for the proportion of the disease, relatively low: between 0.01 and 0.08%, with estimates of 150 to 575 thousand deaths. In relation to the peak of H1N1, which had mortality rates of 0.4% in its early stages, the new coronavirus is seven times more deadly, with mortality rates of 2.5% in the first 31 days.