No, it's not just like the flu
In response to:
Is the new coronavirus like flu? No. It kills 26 times more – Portugal
March 6, 2020
The Director-General of Health, Graça Freitas, compared the appearance of the new coronavirus subtype, Covid-19, to the outbreak of a common flu, saying that the Directorate-General for Health would be working withwith a scenario identical to that which existed in 2009, when influenza A – also known as Influenza A / H1N1. The pandemic took less than a month to arrive in Portugal and caused 122 deaths in the country, with 166,922 cases registered until August 2010 – when the end of the pandemic was declared.
The data say, however, that the new type of coronavirus is not only a disease that spreads faster than common flu or influenza A, but is also a more lethal virus.
Three times more viral than a common flu
A common flu has a transmissibility of 1.3 points, which means that every 10 infected people pass the disease to 13 people. The number is used to measure the potential of an epidemic, translating the degree of reproduction of the disease: the higher the number, the greater the degree of exposure and threat of the disease.
In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic had a transmissibility of 1.5 and could not be contained, with estimates suggesting that 11–21% of the world's population has been infected. Initial studies on the new coronavirus, Covid-19, pointed to a 2-3 point transmissibility, more than double the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which today is just one of the four types of common flu.
A graph showing the evolution of COVID-19 and H1N1 in its first 31 days shows that three times more cases of the new coronavirus have been confirmed in relation to influenza A in the first 31 days.
But the latest mathematical model by researchers at Xiamen University in China, published in the scientific journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty points to estimates of transmission of isolated surfaces in humans of 2.3 and 3.58 in person-to-person transmissions – which explains the dizzying rise in the number of cases of infection.
This last number, the most worrying, translates into a transmissibility almost three times greater than a common flu and concerns the introduction of an affected individual in susceptible environments: closed spaces, with a large population or without ventilation. For comparison, common flu infected 20 to 30 million people in the European Union last year.
In comparison with known outbreaks of other coronavirus subtypes, the transmissibility of Covid-19 in environments is greater than that seen in 2012 with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), from 0.8 to 1.3, but less than that recorded in 2002 with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 2.9 points.
Covid-19 is 26 times more deadly than a common flu
Although H1N1 affected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, its mortality rate was, for the proportion of the disease, relatively low: between 0.01 and 0.08%, with estimates of 150 to 575 thousand deaths. In relation to the peak of H1N1, which had mortality rates of 0.4% in its early stages, the new coronavirus is seven times more deadly, with mortality rates of 2.5% in the first 31 days.
Is the new coronavirus like flu? No. It kills 26 times more – Portugal
March 6, 2020
The Director-General of Health, Graça Freitas, compared the appearance of the new coronavirus subtype, Covid-19, to the outbreak of a common flu, saying that the Directorate-General for Health would be working withwith a scenario identical to that which existed in 2009, when influenza A – also known as Influenza A / H1N1. The pandemic took less than a month to arrive in Portugal and caused 122 deaths in the country, with 166,922 cases registered until August 2010 – when the end of the pandemic was declared.
The data say, however, that the new type of coronavirus is not only a disease that spreads faster than common flu or influenza A, but is also a more lethal virus.
Three times more viral than a common flu
A common flu has a transmissibility of 1.3 points, which means that every 10 infected people pass the disease to 13 people. The number is used to measure the potential of an epidemic, translating the degree of reproduction of the disease: the higher the number, the greater the degree of exposure and threat of the disease.
In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic had a transmissibility of 1.5 and could not be contained, with estimates suggesting that 11–21% of the world's population has been infected. Initial studies on the new coronavirus, Covid-19, pointed to a 2-3 point transmissibility, more than double the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which today is just one of the four types of common flu.
A graph showing the evolution of COVID-19 and H1N1 in its first 31 days shows that three times more cases of the new coronavirus have been confirmed in relation to influenza A in the first 31 days.
But the latest mathematical model by researchers at Xiamen University in China, published in the scientific journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty points to estimates of transmission of isolated surfaces in humans of 2.3 and 3.58 in person-to-person transmissions – which explains the dizzying rise in the number of cases of infection.
This last number, the most worrying, translates into a transmissibility almost three times greater than a common flu and concerns the introduction of an affected individual in susceptible environments: closed spaces, with a large population or without ventilation. For comparison, common flu infected 20 to 30 million people in the European Union last year.
In comparison with known outbreaks of other coronavirus subtypes, the transmissibility of Covid-19 in environments is greater than that seen in 2012 with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), from 0.8 to 1.3, but less than that recorded in 2002 with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 2.9 points.
Covid-19 is 26 times more deadly than a common flu
Although H1N1 affected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, its mortality rate was, for the proportion of the disease, relatively low: between 0.01 and 0.08%, with estimates of 150 to 575 thousand deaths. In relation to the peak of H1N1, which had mortality rates of 0.4% in its early stages, the new coronavirus is seven times more deadly, with mortality rates of 2.5% in the first 31 days.
Comments (103)
has declined to provide me with numbers. Shut down NYC NOW
394 have recovered from the illness.
which I think all can benefit from.
At the end, he offers an e-mail address in case there are questions.
oops - when will they introduce new emoticons for our corona times ?
but mathematically insignificant when comparing to a country.
If it's being considered that we might have another seasonal virus, continual fear mongering isn't going to help. We already know demonrats are never here to help.
The company announced last week that it would start selling the testing kits directly to consumers starting Monday. However, on Sunday the company changed course and said the first batch of 30,000 kits would now only be offered to facilities with medical staff who are dealing directly with patients.
D - It's clear that you have something against all Democrats, even though all democrats are not the same. Furthermore, your common use of juvenile derogatory terms in place of the word democrat indicates to me, that it is possible something happened to you, when you were quite young involving a democrat. Just a hunch. Until I see evidence on the contrary, I won't believe that anyone is making up data on deaths, nor illness.
M - I think that is a much better plan for the initial rounds of testing kits.
Simply put, there are other factors not taken into consideration or being put forth.
The test was designed to allow potential patients to self-administer a swab sample that could be sent into a lab that is certified to conduct human-sample testing under U.S. regulations surrounding laboratory standards.
Results would then be communicated through a telemedicine appointment.
D - everything counts, just to different levels. He states, that we should be prepared IN CASE it is cyclic
and we get another wave of it in the colder months. Whether it is or not, has not truly been decided. Thus, we need to be prepared either way. Either way, hopefully, we will have a new effective vaccine by then.
why not post about survivors' plasma being allowed to be used.
individual basis. There was a Japanese company working on making a manufactured version.
I haven't seen much progress from them recently.
The jury is still out on whether the experimental drug is an effective treatment for coronavirus.
Another attempt from a different direction but much newer so most likely no results yet.
Possibly something by the end of the week.
Harvard's contact with the Chinese results still mostly states the obvious. The very young and the very old mostly afflicted with the occasional in between death.
We just have what ever they've been able to discover to help fight better.
So, it sits on the shelf unused, or they just test themselves out of paranoia.
Meanwhile people who are truly sick don't get tested, because the tests are unavailable to health clinics, or hospitals, etc...
Not really. We don't have any thing that guarantees against death.
A major unknown factor as far as infection and spread.