No, it's not just like the flu
In response to:
Is the new coronavirus like flu? No. It kills 26 times more – Portugal
March 6, 2020
The Director-General of Health, Graça Freitas, compared the appearance of the new coronavirus subtype, Covid-19, to the outbreak of a common flu, saying that the Directorate-General for Health would be working withwith a scenario identical to that which existed in 2009, when influenza A – also known as Influenza A / H1N1. The pandemic took less than a month to arrive in Portugal and caused 122 deaths in the country, with 166,922 cases registered until August 2010 – when the end of the pandemic was declared.
The data say, however, that the new type of coronavirus is not only a disease that spreads faster than common flu or influenza A, but is also a more lethal virus.
Three times more viral than a common flu
A common flu has a transmissibility of 1.3 points, which means that every 10 infected people pass the disease to 13 people. The number is used to measure the potential of an epidemic, translating the degree of reproduction of the disease: the higher the number, the greater the degree of exposure and threat of the disease.
In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic had a transmissibility of 1.5 and could not be contained, with estimates suggesting that 11–21% of the world's population has been infected. Initial studies on the new coronavirus, Covid-19, pointed to a 2-3 point transmissibility, more than double the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which today is just one of the four types of common flu.
A graph showing the evolution of COVID-19 and H1N1 in its first 31 days shows that three times more cases of the new coronavirus have been confirmed in relation to influenza A in the first 31 days.
But the latest mathematical model by researchers at Xiamen University in China, published in the scientific journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty points to estimates of transmission of isolated surfaces in humans of 2.3 and 3.58 in person-to-person transmissions – which explains the dizzying rise in the number of cases of infection.
This last number, the most worrying, translates into a transmissibility almost three times greater than a common flu and concerns the introduction of an affected individual in susceptible environments: closed spaces, with a large population or without ventilation. For comparison, common flu infected 20 to 30 million people in the European Union last year.
In comparison with known outbreaks of other coronavirus subtypes, the transmissibility of Covid-19 in environments is greater than that seen in 2012 with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), from 0.8 to 1.3, but less than that recorded in 2002 with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 2.9 points.
Covid-19 is 26 times more deadly than a common flu
Although H1N1 affected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, its mortality rate was, for the proportion of the disease, relatively low: between 0.01 and 0.08%, with estimates of 150 to 575 thousand deaths. In relation to the peak of H1N1, which had mortality rates of 0.4% in its early stages, the new coronavirus is seven times more deadly, with mortality rates of 2.5% in the first 31 days.
Is the new coronavirus like flu? No. It kills 26 times more – Portugal
March 6, 2020
The Director-General of Health, Graça Freitas, compared the appearance of the new coronavirus subtype, Covid-19, to the outbreak of a common flu, saying that the Directorate-General for Health would be working withwith a scenario identical to that which existed in 2009, when influenza A – also known as Influenza A / H1N1. The pandemic took less than a month to arrive in Portugal and caused 122 deaths in the country, with 166,922 cases registered until August 2010 – when the end of the pandemic was declared.
The data say, however, that the new type of coronavirus is not only a disease that spreads faster than common flu or influenza A, but is also a more lethal virus.
Three times more viral than a common flu
A common flu has a transmissibility of 1.3 points, which means that every 10 infected people pass the disease to 13 people. The number is used to measure the potential of an epidemic, translating the degree of reproduction of the disease: the higher the number, the greater the degree of exposure and threat of the disease.
In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic had a transmissibility of 1.5 and could not be contained, with estimates suggesting that 11–21% of the world's population has been infected. Initial studies on the new coronavirus, Covid-19, pointed to a 2-3 point transmissibility, more than double the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, which today is just one of the four types of common flu.
A graph showing the evolution of COVID-19 and H1N1 in its first 31 days shows that three times more cases of the new coronavirus have been confirmed in relation to influenza A in the first 31 days.
But the latest mathematical model by researchers at Xiamen University in China, published in the scientific journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty points to estimates of transmission of isolated surfaces in humans of 2.3 and 3.58 in person-to-person transmissions – which explains the dizzying rise in the number of cases of infection.
This last number, the most worrying, translates into a transmissibility almost three times greater than a common flu and concerns the introduction of an affected individual in susceptible environments: closed spaces, with a large population or without ventilation. For comparison, common flu infected 20 to 30 million people in the European Union last year.
In comparison with known outbreaks of other coronavirus subtypes, the transmissibility of Covid-19 in environments is greater than that seen in 2012 with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), from 0.8 to 1.3, but less than that recorded in 2002 with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 2.9 points.
Covid-19 is 26 times more deadly than a common flu
Although H1N1 affected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people, its mortality rate was, for the proportion of the disease, relatively low: between 0.01 and 0.08%, with estimates of 150 to 575 thousand deaths. In relation to the peak of H1N1, which had mortality rates of 0.4% in its early stages, the new coronavirus is seven times more deadly, with mortality rates of 2.5% in the first 31 days.
Comments (103)
They may actually be more on the right track than others and they may not. There's no way to track actual corona infection with more not having the major ill effects than those that are.
Next time influenza comes through, we should all shut down just like now.
There's no way to know for certain what was influenza or something else. Travel bans started in late January. No actual testing and such until much later.
An awful lot of people, including myself, never bothered with a clinic or doctors.
Dreading when it dries up enough that I have to start the yard work. I'd rather ride when it's nice out. I always have to flip a coin on those days. Sometimes until I get a more desired result. The other times I just start what has to be done with frown. I always feel better when it's done though.
This does not negate the accurate story from Reuters which details what WAS done. Even the comedian's statement, which was mostly false, was partly true.
Just seen some other posts you made regarding being under the weather. I hope you're doing OK.
From the Breibart
When asked about getting needed supplies, Whitmer said, “That is all I’ve been striving for this whole time. We need assistance. When the federal government told us that we needed to go it ourself, we started procuring every item we get our hands-on. what I’ve gotten back is that vendors with whom we’ve procured contracts are now being told not to send stuff here to Michigan. It’s really concerning. I reached out to the White House last night and asked for a phone call with the president. Ironically at the same time that all the other stuff going on. But the fact of the matter remains we need help, and the very least we don’t need people standing in our way from getting it.”
Wouldn't THAT be appropriate leadership ?
It does have it's own fairly unique problem with regard to the pandemic,
it contains one of the most densely populated regions in the world,
which, unfortunately, plays into the Covid-19's wheelhouse.
Dealing with the pandemic in that region is a real challenge.
Even people forced to stay home, are not truly in ideal isolation situations.
“Good riddance. It’s not like @realDonaldTrump paid taxes here anyway… He’s all yours, Florida,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo tweeted.
City Council Speaker Corey Johnson also wrote: “GOOD RIDDANCE!!” welcome home Covid-19