New report out of Harvard indicates that social distancing may be necessary until 2022 if no vaccine
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(CNN)This may be the new normal for quite a while.
The US may have to endure social distancing measures -- such as stay-at-home orders and school closures -- until 2022, researchers projected on Tuesday. That is, unless, a vaccine becomes quickly available.
That's according to researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who published their findings in the journal Science on Tuesday. Those findings directly contradict research being touted by the White House that suggests the pandemic may stop this summer.
The team at the Harvard School of Public Health used what's known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios of the current pandemic.
"Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available," they wrote in their report. "Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."
The Harvard team's projections also indicate that the virus would come roaring back fairly quickly once restrictions were lifted.
"If intermittent distancing is the approach that's chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time," Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, told reporters.
Another important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That's not yet known.
Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies for the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by previous infection and how long it lasts, and the capacity of overstretched health systems to carry out reliable, widespread antibody tests in the general population.
There's also the difficult social questions around immunity certificates, which have been floated as a possibility in the UK. Would they create a kind of two-tier society, where those who have them can return to a more normal life, while others remain locked down?
The study researchers say they are aware that such prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, would likely have "profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences."
They hope their research will help identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches, identify complementary ways to fight it, and to spur further thinking about ways to get the pandemic under control.
Though coronavirus cases in the US have been soaring, social distancing appears to be effective.
Social distancing is "one of the most powerful weapons" against COVID-19, said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus's ability," he said earlier this month.
States across the country have issued stay-at-home orders, allowing only for essential errands or tasks.
Penalties for breaking the order vary by state. In Maine, the penalty for breaking the order can be up to six months in jail and up to a $1,000 fine.
In Florida, a pastor was arrested last month for continuing to hold large services and is charged with unlawful assembly and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.
This week, states on the East and West coasts announced they are forming their own regional pacts to work together on how to reopen after the stay-at-home orders.
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts each plan to name a public health and economic official to a regional working group.
West Coast states of California, Washington and Oregon also announced they are joining forces in a plan to begin incremental release of stay-at-home orders.
(CNN)This may be the new normal for quite a while.
The US may have to endure social distancing measures -- such as stay-at-home orders and school closures -- until 2022, researchers projected on Tuesday. That is, unless, a vaccine becomes quickly available.
That's according to researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who published their findings in the journal Science on Tuesday. Those findings directly contradict research being touted by the White House that suggests the pandemic may stop this summer.
The team at the Harvard School of Public Health used what's known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios of the current pandemic.
"Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available," they wrote in their report. "Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."
The Harvard team's projections also indicate that the virus would come roaring back fairly quickly once restrictions were lifted.
"If intermittent distancing is the approach that's chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time," Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, told reporters.
Another important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That's not yet known.
Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies for the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by previous infection and how long it lasts, and the capacity of overstretched health systems to carry out reliable, widespread antibody tests in the general population.
There's also the difficult social questions around immunity certificates, which have been floated as a possibility in the UK. Would they create a kind of two-tier society, where those who have them can return to a more normal life, while others remain locked down?
The study researchers say they are aware that such prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, would likely have "profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences."
They hope their research will help identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches, identify complementary ways to fight it, and to spur further thinking about ways to get the pandemic under control.
Though coronavirus cases in the US have been soaring, social distancing appears to be effective.
Social distancing is "one of the most powerful weapons" against COVID-19, said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus's ability," he said earlier this month.
States across the country have issued stay-at-home orders, allowing only for essential errands or tasks.
Penalties for breaking the order vary by state. In Maine, the penalty for breaking the order can be up to six months in jail and up to a $1,000 fine.
In Florida, a pastor was arrested last month for continuing to hold large services and is charged with unlawful assembly and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.
This week, states on the East and West coasts announced they are forming their own regional pacts to work together on how to reopen after the stay-at-home orders.
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts each plan to name a public health and economic official to a regional working group.
West Coast states of California, Washington and Oregon also announced they are joining forces in a plan to begin incremental release of stay-at-home orders.
Comments (69)
Social Distancing/Stay A Home (SAH) or not -- In two years, the disease will likely have spread to enough folks to have established some degree of Herd Immunity.
It'll then have fewer opportunities to spread.
Also --
It may've mutated into a less virulent strain.
As far as mutations, it could mutate, but it could also mutate to a more infectious and/or more lethal strain too. However, I read that it has a proofreading molecule that eliminates most mutations.
Coronaviruses differ from flu viruses in another key way that reduces the number of mutations. They proofread their own genomes when they copy themselves, cutting out things that don't seem right. "They maintain this ability to keep their genome pretty much intact," says Vineet Menachery, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch. "The mutations that they incorporate are relatively rare."
This added proofreading function means that coronaviruses are also one of the largest RNA viruses. They're about 30,000 nucleotides long — double the size of flu viruses. But at 125 nanometers wide, they're still microscopic; 800 of them could fit in the width of a human hair.
Nonetheless, their relatively larger size means "they have a lot more tools in their tool belt" compared with other RNA viruses, says Menachery — in other words, more capability of fighting off a host's immune system and making copies of themselves.
Researchers are on alert for changes that might affect how the coronavirus behaves in humans. For instance, if the coronavirus developed ways to block parts of our immune system, it could hide out in our bodies and establish itself better. If it evolved to bind more strongly to human cells, it could enter them more efficiently and replicate more quickly.
But it's not as if the coronavirus needs to become more potent to survive and thrive. It's already replicating itself around the world very successfully, says Justin Bahl, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Georgia. "The viruses themselves are not actually under much pressure to change."
Selective pressures could come from introducing treatments and vaccines that are effective against a narrow group of coronavirus strains. If that happens, strains that aren't targeted by these measures would likely proliferate.
The small genetic changes that researchers have observed so far don't appear to be changing the function of the virus. "I don't think we're going to see major new traits, but I do think that we're going to see different variants emerge in the population," says Bahl.
And that slower rate of change is potentially good news for treatments and vaccines. Researchers think that once a person gains immunity against SARS-CoV-2, either by recovering from an infection or by getting a future vaccine, they will likely be protected against the strains in circulation for "years rather than months," predicts Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
Does getting the disease confer Immunity?
I've heard conflicting information.
A NON-mutating virus might be a Good thing.
If it stays "as is", it might be More susceptible to herd immunity ... Also might be easier to develop a vaccine.
It'd be less of a moving target, one might guess
Vaccines.
It was happening for millennia prior to Edward Jenner & smallpox.
A contagion hits a population & spreads ... Herd immunity is developed.
Vaccination is our mimicry of a natural process.
Hell! Jenner Observed it occurring naturally ... Then came up with the "vaccination" concept -- human-induced immunity.
Our species gives itself too much credit -- Like nothin' happens unless WE do it.
How can people in cities put self distancing in to practice ? logistically it wouldl not work in a restaurant, coffee shop, unless they took out the tables and left quarter the amount, and in doing so, they would have to increase prices greatly to be able to afford to use the space they rent ?
I won't go on..... I am sure there are experts planning it all out but I can't see it working.
What I can see is many many people on antidepressants, and obesity going through the roof. I just bought myself a load of rubbish food [cake and cookies ] while out for my walk. I have not done this until today, something just snapped. I needed that 'hit' that staying at home and reading, going for a long walk coming home to myself and my Cat gives me. I miss being out and about and meeting friends and doing my bit of voluntary work with animals, and I can't even get a garden centre open for gardening. I have no topsoil.
Sorry I went totally off topic. This reply is too long. Thanks for the new Report from Harvard. They do know what they are talking about, I was seeing things from my own perspective and I am used to living alone too.
And folks marvel that Libertarian types are a mite wary of Comrade Bernard, AOCchh & such??
That "News" was just passed along to me & seems to be a few days old.
I'm thinking it was known in medical circles before it became News ...
It's remarkably similar (nearly Spot On!) to information put out through the VA System just over a week ago.
The 'real' data is AFFECTED by the shutdowns. It would be more like the Gates-Fauci models,
if not for those shutdowns.
If we return to returning to business as usual, there will be a jump up in infections,
which will return another peak in infections and later another peak in deaths.
Once again, Trump has more concern for $$$$, than American lives.
Instead, we need to await testing (virus & antibodies to virus) to determine who
CAN return to work as usual. The others should not.
Once an effective vaccine is available, then those vaccinated can return to work.
Many people want to go back to work and need to get a pay check........many bankruptcies..........
America only has so much money in the kitty and I read it is hitting bottom...........
People are already rebellion here and there and it is only the beginning..........
More people will die? That could be and I may be one of them, so be it, but this
social distancing has to end soon or people will die of other causes not the virus
Waiting for a vaccine that is very unrealistic Jim as they may never find it.
There was real urgency to develop it, and there is also urgency to approve it after the trials.
Indeed, the race is on.
Says a lot about Trump supporters and nothing about Harvard.
How will people survive without a job ? Oh wait. I don't have a job. I work for myself. A lot of people are working from home already and more have started since the pandemic.
People have survived a long time. Give them and the government more credit than that.
The bodies weren't piled up during the last recession, nor the great depression.
But, they are now. Disease kills quickly.
Deer Cabin Redoubt guy is a retired Army Major.
He commanded artillery units. Coincidence?
I ain't sayin'. I'm just sayin'. ...
Hungry people become angry people.
Lack of food is not the problem. Lack of toilet paper is a different story, as is lack of exercise.
I disagree with the shut down of National & State parks, if social distancing practices are followed.
So Harvard knows....yep they know.........as much as the rest...........nothing!
Seriously, more than anyone else on here, I'd expect a comment like that out of you.
The commentator in the vid in my comment above Specifically addresses the Harvard Study cited in the OP.
Until we get the vaccine we will have to practice some way of social distancing and some special measures.
If they never discover the vaccine, I don't know what's going to happen... Maybe we will all get sick and become immune in time and - maybe not. Maybe we will get ill over and over and over again until only the strongest ones survive... Nobody can tell.
Weighing the outcome & making "adult decisions" about when the preventative measures inflict more misery -- and Death! -- than than the disease that's being Prevented ...
The interview appears to have been conducted earlier this week.
Again --
What's being said is Consistent with information put out by the VA nearly Two Weeks ago.
It might be presumed he takes a Significantly broader view of the situation than, say, the folks who produced the Harvard Study, who may've reached their conclusions by focusing too much on the timeframe for vaccine development without considering detrimental effects of a prolonged Lockdown.
They essentially arrived at questionable conclusion based on too a narrow view of the subject due to being overly Specialized --a classic example of "an Expert" ...
Someone who knows more & more about less & less until they know everything about nothing.
... As Jenny suggested a few comments above ...
There's a LOT more to be taken away from the Harvard Study (and this blog) than what's been touched upon.
The Topic & Comments are among the most fascinating I've seen on a CS Blog.
Even to the selection of the Subject Category (Science).
It could easily, and arguably more accurately, be listed under at least One other category.
I think that people should be prepared that their life won't be the same until the vaccine. Even with the vaccine, there will be a lot of sick and dead people around (all those that don't want to get a vaccine and - as I can see - there's A LOT of them) and a lot of pressure on medical system while trying to help those who are against vaccination. So, those against the vaccine will again make a lot of problems for all of us.
Until we get the vaccine we will have to practice some way of social distancing and some special measures.
Clearly the majority will become vaccinated, and thus become immune.
The ones who don't become vaccinated will likely die at a greater rate, than
those who get vaccinated, especially the aged and those with other health issues. However, some will recover and thus also likely become immune.
The key is that the ones who will refuse to be vaccinated will be in the minority. Thus, hospitals will not be overwhelmed, as they have been and
there won't need to be a shutdown, as most will be immune due to the majority being vaccinated, and immune after recovering.
Your repeating this Jim is not a good move on your part. either, people don't need this.
You really believe that this report of Harvard is needed, needed by whom?
You seem to be proud of having it brought forward........why, it is a negative message
No one knows, not Harvard, not anyone knows, so it is all negative.
So people all have good food to eat eh, really? Well food banks are running low or closing ...........
Those using the food bank go there because they have no jobs...........these and having hungry children are soon going to revolt, Hungry people are Angry people.......
NY Guv Andrew Cuomo describes Phased Plan to Re-open New York ...
This doesn't give the whole presentation.
But from what I'm hearing, it sounds sensible
It Could be based on what this guy wrote in the Wall Street Journal on March 24.
it is a negative message
No one knows, not Harvard, not anyone knows, so it is all negative.
(i.e. not requiring 3 years or more).
A negative person would view it as negative. I see it as realistic.
The Don's Phased Plan to Re-Open the U.S. ...
Which, from what I've heard, sounds similar to Guv Cuomo's Plan for NY.
Suspect there may collusion goin' on here -- of the GOOD sort
...
That is in direct contrast to what Cuomo will do.
Yes Jim this "proves" there are no hungry people;
Who are the 27% Jim?
Those with money are, of hoarders or were able to buy extra groceries..........
Not the poor slob who has no job and needs the food bank.
People need to get back to work...............Soon as possible............
As Guv Cuomo said, we're re-opening and re-starting the state -- That's not been done before.
He, The Don -- ALL OF US -- are literally writing The Book as we go along.
And living things that Will be written in History Books.
...
:
Yes Jim this "proves" there are no hungry people;
Who are the 27% Jim?
Those with money are, of hoarders or were able to buy extra groceries..........
Not the poor slob who has no job and needs the food bank.
A lot of money was donated to food banks recently by some benevolent billionaires.
None of them were named Trump.
People need to get back to work...............Soon as possible............
"Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,"
in·ter·mit·tent
/?in(t)?r'mitnt/
adjective: intermittent
occurring at irregular intervals; not continuous or steady.
Hungry people become angry people.
JIM; First of all, they aren't hungry. Indeed, food sales are up 27%.
.
I never took the flue vaccine and doubt it very much that I would take one for the corona virus
I'm not sure what your objection to getting a vaccine would be. But, it could save your life.
Someone else does agree with what I have said............