Random Events
The belief that lightning never strikes at the same place, is a myth. There is nothing random about where lightning will strike next. It can and it will strike at the same place for as long as the topography invites it to strike there.The law of averages is a nonprofessional term for an erroneous belief that (inter alia) the results of random events in the past can influence the probability of random events yet to come.
According to the ‘law of averages’, something is more likely to happen because it has not happened recently or alternatively, that because something has recently happened, it will not happen again in the immediate future. This is wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics and not based on any mathematical or statistical probability. Life is not that simple and smooth. There is no law of averages.
As an example, consider a die that has landed on six in ten consecutive rolls. Somebody may assume, in accordance with the ‘law of averages', that on its next roll it will not (or at least is much more unlikely to) produce another six. The truth is, the die has no memory, and the probability of another six does not change in sympathy with past results. Even if the die has landed on six in ten or a hundred consecutive rolls, the probability that the next roll will produce another six is still no more and no less than one in six (18.67%), the same as with any the other five numbers on the die.
Likewise, there is no statistical basis for the belief that lottery numbers, which haven’t appeared recently, are due to appear soon. Playing the same combination of numbers draw after draw, fares no better. There simply is no minimum or maximum number of draws to guarantee a certain outcome. A thousand years may not be enough to draw the right number. It is just pure luck
Lotto is (and will remain) a special tax levied on stupid people.
I wish you a great week ahead.
Comments (20)
But on the lottery, I sure would love to be a winner. .
I have to play to win though, and I guess I will have to allocate funds for that.
I guess some of us will have to pay that tax or government will invent a new tax to make up any short fall.
If Idi Amin could pin his own medals then surely a witchdoctor can produce his own degrees?
I have a $1.00
And I'm going to: Play to win! Or play to lose.
heyyy!
Did he survive?
As they say, another day, another dollar.
Another dollar! Another winner.
The state or the person that played the $1.00...
Is that not what it is all about? The problem is to differentiate between what is random and what is ruled by natural laws. Many apparent random events are not as random as it may appear at first sight.
The slogan here is you cannot win if you do not play but then I guess the same goes for losing.
I read about this fella or somebody similar. I cannot recall much of the detail but I think I may have seen a program on TV about him as well.
We have many such stupid people, I saw they buy Lotto even in a line sometimes.
Yep, somebody has to win it but by logical elimination it won't be me. Somehow I'm not very good at guessing numbers.
Yes, when the jackpot is big we have that here as well. The bigger the jackpot the more 'stupid' people around.